NASDAQ: ERIE · Insurance Brokers
Erie Indemnity
Erie Indemnity has served since 1925 as attorney-in-fact for the policyholders (subscribers) of Erie Insurance Exchange, a Pennsylvania reciprocal property and casualty insurer. It handles policy issuance and renewal for the Exchange and keeps a management fee of up to 25% of the Exchange's direct and affiliated assumed premiums written; the rate was 25% in 2024–2026. The Exchange is its sole customer, and Indemnity does not bear the Exchange's underwriting risk. The Exchange's premiums written rose 8.9% to $13.0 billion in 2025. Indemnity's revenue was $4.1 billion and net income $559 million; net income fell from 2024 partly because of a $100 million contribution to a charitable foundation. It has two share classes: non-voting Class A and voting Class B, which convert at 2,400 to 1. CEO Timothy NeCastro and CFO Julie Pelkowski both retire at the end of 2026.
Last updated
Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 21, 2026 13:33 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 23, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2310-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-29
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
01
At a glanceFrom SEC data
Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.
- Revenue growthCAGRSmooths out year-to-year swings into "grew X% a year on average." Makes growth pace comparable across companies of very different sizes.
- 9.9%
- Operating marginOperating marginHow many cents of operating profit are left per dollar of revenue. Reflects pricing power and cost structure.
- 17.6%
- ROIC minus WACCROIC − WACC spreadThe difference between ROIC and WACC. Consistently positive implies value creation; consistently negative implies value destruction.
- +18.8 pts
- Net debt ÷ EBITDAEBITDAOperating income with D&A added back. A rough proxy for cash-generating power that’s less distorted by capital intensity, depreciation method, or financing/tax differences than net income.
- -0.5x
- Cash conversionOperating CF ÷ net income (cash conversion)How much of reported profit shows up as actual cash. 1x or higher means profit is backed by cash.
- 1.23x
- Dividend raisesDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year).
- 4 of 5
- P/E todayP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing.
- 24.5x
- Betaβ (beta)How much a stock moves, on average, for a 1% move in the overall market. Above 1 means more volatile than the market, which raises the return shareholders require. This site computes it from about 2.5 years (roughly 130 weeks) of weekly returns, built from Yahoo Finance daily prices, regressed against an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy, then applies the well-known long-run mean-reversion adjustment (0.67 × β + 0.33) as the WACC default.
- 0.51
Higher than 62% of 372 non-financial companies
Average yearly growth over the years shown
Higher than 48% of 311 non-financial companies
Latest fiscal year (FY2025)
Higher than 86% of 311 non-financial companies
Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost
Higher than 13% of 304 non-financial companies
Below 0 means more cash than debt
Higher than 27% of 349 non-financial companies
Operating cash flow ÷ net income
Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5
Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
Above 1 = moves more than the market
Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.
02
Valuation todayFrom SEC data
Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.
Share price$270.42close on 2026-11-04
Market cap$14.14B
- P/EP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing. today
- 24.5x
- P/BP/BShare price ÷ book value per share. Below 1x means the market values the company below its accounting net worth. This site uses the closing price nearest the fiscal year-end and highlights sub-1x readings. today
- 6.2x
- EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDAEnterprise value (≈ market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash) as a multiple of EBITDA — roughly, "how many years of EBITDA to buy the whole company." Lower is generally viewed as cheaper, and it’s more comparable than P/E across companies with different debt loads or depreciation policies. This site excludes noncontrolling interests from the EV calculation. today
- 17.5x
- FCF yieldFree cash flow (FCF)Operating CF minus capital expenditures — cash generated by the business after funding its own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. Acquisitions and securities purchases (also in investing CF) are not subtracted, so FCF can be positive in a year when total investing CF exceeds operating CF. today
- 4.0%
- Dividend yieldDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year). today
- 2.1%
At FY2025 year-end: 26.8x
Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
At FY2025 year-end: 6.6x
Book value at FY2025 year-end
At FY2025 year-end: 18.6x
EBITDA for FY2025
At FY2025 year-end: 3.8%
Free cash flow for FY2025
Dividends per share for FY2025
“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
03
What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data
The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.
- Revenue$1.07B → $1.07B (vs. a year earlier)→ +0.3%$1.07B → $1.07B (vs. a year earlier)
- Operating margin19.6% → 19.4% (vs. a year earlier)↓ −0.2 pts19.6% → 19.4% (vs. a year earlier)
- Net income$183M → $182M (vs. a year earlier)→ −0.5%$183M → $182M (vs. a year earlier)
- Cash$283M → $363M (vs. previous quarter-end)↑ +28.2%$283M → $363M (vs. previous quarter-end)
Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.
From the earnings release of Oct 29, 2026.
Key changes
Operating income before taxes down 0.7%. Source sentence
Operating income before taxes decreased $1.5 million, or 0.7 percent, in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025.
Management fee revenue for policy services up 2.6%. Source sentence
Management fee revenue - policy issuance and renewal services increased $21.7 million, or 2.6 percent, in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025.
Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗
04
Company profileFrom SEC dataShow
- Legal name
- ERIE INDEMNITY CO
- Headquarters
- ERIE, PA
- Incorporated in
- Pennsylvania
- Fiscal year end
- 12/31
- Exchange & ticker
- NASDAQ: ERIE
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- CIK
- 922621
Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)
Employees
6,667
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description
05
Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow
When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.
Next report
Q4 FY2026
Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 54–58 days after quarter end (Feb 23, 2026; Feb 27, 2025; Feb 26, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.
Reporting pattern
- Fiscal year ends around December 31.
- Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
- Earnings releases came 23–58 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
| Quarter | Quarter ended | Earnings release (8-K) | Report filed (10-Q / 10-K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Oct 29, 2026 (+29 days) | Oct 29, 2026 10-Q (+29 days) |
| Q2 FY2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Jul 30, 2026 (+30 days) | Jul 30, 2026 10-Q (+30 days) |
| Q1 FY2026 | Mar 31, 2026 | Apr 23, 2026 (+23 days) | Apr 23, 2026 10-Q (+23 days) |
| Q4 FY2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | Feb 23, 2026 (+54 days) | Feb 23, 2026 10-K (+54 days) |
| Q3 FY2025 | Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2025 (+30 days) | Oct 30, 2025 10-Q (+30 days) |
| Q2 FY2025 | Jun 30, 2025 | Aug 7, 2025 (+38 days) | Aug 7, 2025 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q1 FY2025 | Mar 31, 2025 | Apr 24, 2025 (+24 days) | Apr 24, 2025 10-Q (+24 days) |
| Q4 FY2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Feb 27, 2025 (+58 days) | Feb 27, 2025 10-K (+58 days) |
| Q3 FY2024 | Sep 30, 2024 | Oct 31, 2024 (+31 days) | Oct 31, 2024 10-Q (+31 days) |
| Q2 FY2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Jul 25, 2024 (+25 days) | Jul 25, 2024 10-Q (+25 days) |
| Q1 FY2024 | Mar 31, 2024 | Apr 25, 2024 (+25 days) | Apr 25, 2024 10-Q (+25 days) |
| Q4 FY2023 | Dec 31, 2023 | Feb 26, 2024 (+57 days) | Feb 26, 2024 10-K (+57 days) |
Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.
06
Flagship products & servicesSite analysis
Management operations
Policy issuance and renewal services for Erie Insurance Exchange
Examples: Private passenger auto, homeowners, commercial multi-peril, commercial auto and workers compensation policies written by the Exchange
From the FY2025 Form 10-K.
U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services
The filings reviewed give no market share figure. Indemnity says it has no direct competition in providing its services to the Exchange.
Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
07
Recent strategic focusSite analysis
Recent developments.
Nine months 2026
Net income was $512.8M ($9.80 per diluted share) vs $496.0M; Q3 net income was $182.0M ($3.48), roughly flat, as higher agent incentive commissions offset a 2.6% rise in policy issuance and renewal management fees.
Source: Q3 2026 earnings release; Form 10-Q Q3 2026
Leadership changes
CEO Timothy NeCastro (CEO since 2016) and CFO Julie Pelkowski will retire on December 31, 2026; the board is searching for a new CEO.
Source: 8-Ks filed 2026-02-20 and 2026-05-21
Dividend
The quarterly Class A dividend was raised to $1.4625 (from $1.365) in December 2025, and the 2026 management fee rate was kept at 25%.
Source: 8-K filed 2025-12-11
Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)
1.67x
Well above depreciation — expansion-stage investment
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
e.g.$116M ÷ $69M = 1.67x
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Where the money goes, over time
Unit: $M. Capex went from $56M in FY2020 to $116M in FY2025
- Capex
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23
08
Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data
FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.
Revenue (FY2025)
$4.07B
As reported in the 10-K
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
+9.9%▲favorable
formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1
e.g.($4,067M ÷ $2,536M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 9.9%
termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)
Operating margin (FY2025)
17.6%▲favorable
+4.3pt vs. 5 years ago
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
e.g.$717M ÷ $4,067M × 100 = 17.6%
ROE (FY2025)
26.2%▲favorable
6-year average: 26.2%
As reported in the 10-K
P/B (FY2025 end)
6.56x
formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share
e.g.$286.65 ÷ $43.67 = 6.56x
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B
EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)
18.6x
formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)
e.g.($14,989M + $0M − $346M) ÷ ($717M + $69M) = 18.6x
termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple
- ▲
Revenue grew +9.9% a year over 5 years (strong growth)
From $2.54B in FY2020 to $4.07B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.
- ▲
Operating margin improved: 13.3% → 17.6%
How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +4.3 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.
- ▲
Equity ratio is 68.0% (a high level of financial stability)
The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).
- ▲
Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.
- ▲
ROE averaged 26.2% over 6 years (latest: 26.2%)
How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.
09
Business modelSite analysis
Business Model Canvas
The whole company in nine blocks. Left side: how it delivers (partners, activities, resources, costs). Right side: who it serves and how it earns. Every entry comes from the company’s filings shown on this page.
08 · who helps
Key partners
No partners or suppliers named in the filings.
07 · what it does
Key activities
- Policy issuance and renewal services (agent commissions, underwriting, IT)
- Administrative services (claims handling, life insurance and investment management) at cost
06 · what it draws on
Key resources
- 6,667 full-time employees
- Independent agencies (the Exchange's sole distribution channel)
02 · why customers buy
Value propositions
- Sales, underwriting and policy issuance services for Erie Insurance Exchange.
04 · how it keeps them
Customer relationships
- A long-term management relationship with the Exchange, paid as a percentage of premiums written.
03 · how it reaches them
Channels
- Independent agents, who also act as underwriters and service providers.
01 · who it serves
Customer segments
- Erie Insurance Exchange and its subsidiaries (sole customer)
09 · where money goes
Cost structure
FY2025, share of revenue ($4.07B)
- Other operating costs (incl. cost of goods sold)82.4%
Operating profit left: 17.6% of revenue. Depreciation & amortization (inside the costs above): $69M. Capital spending: $116M.
Source: Form 10-K income statement and cash-flow statement (SEC XBRL).
05 · how money comes in
Revenue streams
- Management fee revenue – policy issuance and renewal $3.13B
- Administrative services reimbursement $0.84B (at cost)
- Management fee – administrative services $0.07B (2025)
Value propositions, channels and customer relationships: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Performs sales, underwriting and policy issuance for the Exchange in return for a percentage of premiums written. It also provides claims, life insurance and investment management services to the Exchange and its subsidiaries, reimbursed at cost.
01 what it draws on
Inputs & resources
- 6,667 full-time employees
- Independent agencies (the Exchange's sole distribution channel)
02 what it does
Activities
- Policy issuance and renewal services (agent commissions, underwriting, IT)
- Administrative services (claims handling, life insurance and investment management) at cost
03 who it serves
Customers
- Erie Insurance Exchange and its subsidiaries (sole customer)
04 how money comes in
How it earns
- Management fee revenue – policy issuance and renewal $3.13B
- Administrative services reimbursement $0.84B (at cost)
- Management fee – administrative services $0.07B (2025)
How the business makes money
- The Exchange's direct and affiliated assumed premiums written were $12.96B in 2025: 71% personal lines (mainly auto and homeowners) and 29% commercial lines.
- Agent compensation was about 71% of 2025 policy issuance and renewal expenses.
- Indemnity has a single reportable segment, management operations.
Government & regulation around the business
Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.
Erie’s management fees depend on the Exchange, whose costs are affected by tariff changes.
Trade & export rules
Tariffs
Tariff changes could affect the Exchange’s operations and Erie’s management fees.
Constrains the businessTouches: How it earnsSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Revenue by segment (FY2025)
Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue
Management fee – policy issuance and renewal
3,132 (77%)Administrative services reimbursement (at cost)
837 (21%)Management fee – administrative services
74 (2%)Service agreement revenue
25 (1%)
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — consolidated statements of operations One reportable segment; these are the operating revenue lines. Reimbursement revenue is offset by an equal cost.
10
Contract structureSite analysisShow
Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.
Each policyholder signs a subscriber's agreement, a limited power of attorney appointing Indemnity as attorney-in-fact. The board sets the management fee rate at least annually, up to 25% of premiums written.
- recurring
Subscriber's agreement management fee
Management fee revenue – policy issuance and renewal $3,132M in 2025 (77% of operating revenue)
Typical term: Rate set at least annually by the board; 25% for 2024, 2025 and 2026
The effective rate after adjustments was 24.37% in 2025.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)
11
Customers & suppliersSite analysis
Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.
Customers
Erie Insurance Exchange and its insurance subsidiaries.
Named by the company
Suppliers
Independent insurance agencies, technology vendors.
Named by the company
The 10-K doesn't name suppliers.
What the filings disclose
- Commissions to independent agents are Indemnity's largest expense. (Form 10-K FY2025)
12
Competitors & peersSite analysis
Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.
The 10-K says Indemnity has no direct competition in serving the Exchange. The Exchange itself competes with other property and casualty insurers.
Competitors named in the 10-K
No competitor is named in the 10-K.
Peer group the company chose
2025 executive compensation benchmarking peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.
Property and casualty insurers Erie considers competitors for policyholders and employees and similar in lines of business, premiums or assets. A separate LTIP peer group of 19 insurers, including State Farm, Progressive, Allstate and GEICO, represents 52% of industry premiums.
- American Family Insurancesite ↗
- Amica Mutual Insurancesite ↗
- Auto Club Group (AAA)site ↗
- Cincinnati Financialsite ↗
- CSAA Insurance Exchangesite ↗
- COUNTRY Financialsite ↗
- Farmers Insurancesite ↗
- The Hanover Insurance Groupsite ↗
- Nationwidesite ↗
- Sentry Insurancesite ↗
- USAAsite ↗
- Westfield Insurancesite ↗
Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.
13
Six years of financialsFrom SEC data
Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.
Revenue over time
Unit: $M
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23
Profit over time (operating → net)
Unit: $M
- Operating income
- Pretax income
- Net income
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23
Margins over time
Unit: %
- Operating margin
- Net margin
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100
Cash flow over time
Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)
- Operating CF
- Investing CF
- Free CF
formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures
termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23
Financial stability & capital efficiency
Unit: %
- Equity ratio
- ROE
formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets
formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity
Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share
Unit: $
- EPS
- Dividend per share
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23
| Line item | FY2020In next year’s 10-K | FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement ($M) | ||||||
| Revenue | 2,536 | 2,634 | 2,840 | 3,269 | 3,795 | 4,067 |
| Operating income | 338 | 318 | 376 | 520 | 676 | 717 |
| Pretax income | 369 | 376 | 376 | 562 | 757 | 711 |
| Net income (attributable) | 293 | 298 | 299 | 446 | 600 | 559 |
| Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100 | — | 3.8% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 16.1% | 7.2% |
| Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 100 | 13.3% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 15.9% | 17.8% | 17.6% |
| Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100 | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 13.8% |
| Balance sheet ($M) | ||||||
| Total assets | 2,117 | 2,242 | 2,239 | 2,472 | 2,889 | 3,355 |
| Total equity | 1,188 | 1,342 | 1,448 | 1,663 | 1,987 | 2,283 |
| Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable | 96 | 94 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 |
| Equity ratio | 56.1% | 59.9% | 64.7% | 67.3% | 68.8% | 68.0% |
| ROE | 24.7% | 23.5% | 21.4% | 28.7% | 32.9% | 26.2% |
| Cash flow ($M) | ||||||
| Operating CF | 343 | 403 | 366 | 381 | 611 | 687 |
| Investing CF | -243 | -185 | -107 | -158 | -227 | -439 |
| Financing CF | -275 | -195 | -301 | -222 | -230 | -200 |
| Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures | 287 | 254 | 299 | 289 | 486 | 571 |
| Cash and equivalents | 161 | 184 | 142 | 144 | 298 | 346 |
| Per share & other | ||||||
| EPS ($) | 5.61 | 5.69 | 5.71 | 8.53 | 11.48 | 10.69 |
| BVPS ($) | 22.72 | 25.67 | 27.70 | 31.80 | 38.00 | 43.67 |
| Dividend per share ($) | 5.93 | 4.22 | 4.52 | 4.85 | 5.19 | 5.56 |
| Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 100 | 105.7% | 74.1% | 79.2% | 56.8% | 45.2% | 52.0% |
| P/E (x) | 43.8 | 33.9 | 43.6 | 39.3 | 35.9 | 26.8 |
| EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization) | 35.6 | 28.1 | 30.5 | 30.6 | 29.0 | 18.6 |
| P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share | 10.81 | 7.51 | 8.98 | 10.53 | 10.85 | 6.56 |
P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.
Last 8 quarters
Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Operating income | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | $1.07B+0.3% | $207M-0.7% | $182M-0.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | $1.09B+2.8% | $204M+2.5% | $180M+3.2% |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.01B+2.3% | $167M+10.2% | $150M+8.7% |
| 2025-12-31 † | $951M+2.9% | $158M-5.7% | $63M-58.3% |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.07B | $209M | $183M |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.06B | $199M | $175M |
| 2025-03-31 | $989M | $151M | $138M |
| 2024-12-31 † | $924M | $167M | $152M |
† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.
14
Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data
ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.
ROIC (FY2025)
26.5%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
e.g.$717M × (1 − 21%) ÷ $2,135M × 100 = 26.5%
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
WACC (this site’s estimate)
7.76%
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
e.g.Equity weight: $14.99B ÷ ($14.99B + $0) = 100.0%
e.g.Debt weight: $0 ÷ ($14.99B + $0) = 0.0%
e.g.WACC: 7.8% × 100.0% + 5.0% × (1 − 21%) × 0.0% = 7.76%
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 6.3%–9.6% and ROIC − WACC runs +17.0 to +20.2 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.
WACC 7.76% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
- β
- 0.51 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.02), so reliability is limited)
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Cost of equity
- 7.76%
- Cost of debt
- 4.95% (no debt on record, using the risk-free rate)
- Tax rate
- 21% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
- Capital structure (equity : debt)
- 100% : 0%
ROIC over time, vs. WACC
Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red
- ROIC (above WACC)
- ROIC (below WACC)
- WACC 7.76%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
Try different WACC assumptions
β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).
Initial β: 0.51 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.27, R² 0.02, 130 weeks)
formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)
e.g.0.67 × 0.269 + 0.33 = 0.510
termsβ (beta)
Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.
formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium
e.g.5.0% + 0.51 × 5.5% = 7.8%
termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)
formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)
formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)
15
What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data
A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.
Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)
3.6%
Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 7.8% − 4.1%
Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)
+14.7%
Compound annual rate, 5 years
Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)
+9.9%
Compound annual rate, 5 years
Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $571M (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $13.76B = market cap $14.14B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $0 − cash and short-term investments $380M; r = WACC of 7.8% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.51, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).
Three WACC scenarios
The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.
Try your own assumptions
V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.
Theoretical enterprise value
$13.59B
FCF $571M ÷ (7.8% − 3.6%)
Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value
0.99x
Below 1x: these assumptions value the business below the market did
How sensitive the answer is
Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.
| g \ r | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0.72x | 0.61x | 0.53x | 0.47x | 0.42x |
| 2% | 1.09x | 0.86x | 0.72x | 0.61x | 0.53x |
| 4% | 2.31x | 1.48x | 1.09x | 0.86x | 0.72x |
| 6% | — | 5.19x | 2.31x | 1.48x | 1.09x |
| 8% | — | — | — | 5.19x | 2.31x |
A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.
16
Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow
The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.
- ✓
Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.14x
Profit is backed by cash coming in.
- ✓
Accrual ratio (latest): -4.1%
A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.
- ✓
Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 101%
Most profit comes from core operations.
- ✓
Days sales outstanding: 71 → 65 days
No major slowdown in collecting on sales.
Operating CF vs. net income
Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash
- Operating CF
- Net income
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23
Profit bridge (FY2025)
Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income
- Profit (each stage)
- Pushed profit up
- Pushed profit down
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23
Receivables & inventory days
Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales
- Days sales outstanding
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
Worked examples (latest period)
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
e.g.$687M ÷ $559M = 1.23x
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
e.g.$717M ÷ $711M × 100 = 101%
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
e.g.($707M + $736M) ÷ 2 ÷ $4,067M × 365 = 65 days
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
17
Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow
How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.
Institutions, insiders and everyone else — Class A shares, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30
“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.
- Held by 13F filers
- 45.2%
- Directors & officers (shares)
- 45.8%
- Everyone else (est.)
- 9.0%
- Directors & officers (voting power)
- —
- Institutional-ownership rank
- 413 of 416
- Beta (adjusted)
- 0.51
of Class A shares
individuals and other non-13F holders
not stated in the proxy
1 = most institutional; 99% of covered companies have more
above 1 = swings more than the market
- 20.9M shares reported by 440 13F filers ÷ 46.2M Class A shares outstanding on 2026-07-24. Option positions are excluded.
- Only the listed Class A shares are counted; other share classes (often held by founders) are not in this figure.
- Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days. They also hold 7.47% of Class B shares.
- A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.
Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14C filed 2026-03-20 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-24)
18
Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis
Strengths
1. Fee-based model
Revenue is a percentage of the Exchange's premiums, and Indemnity does not bear the Exchange's underwriting losses.
Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025
2. Premium growth
The Exchange's premiums written grew 18.4% in 2024 and 8.9% in 2025, to $13.0B.
Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025
3. No debt
No borrowings were outstanding on its line of credit at the end of 2025.
Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025
Weaknesses
1. Single customer
The Exchange is Indemnity's sole customer, so its results depend on the Exchange's growth and financial condition.
Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025
2. Slowing growth
Premiums written by the Exchange grew only 2.9% in the first nine months of 2026 (1.8% in Q3), and new business policies fell 22.8% in 2025.
Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025; Form 10-Q Q3 2026
19
What draws investors to itSite analysis
Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
P/E (FY2025)
26.8x
Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS
Dividend yield (FY2025)
1.94%
Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price
Payout ratio (FY2025)
52%
Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS
FCF yield (FY2025)
3.8%
(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap
1. Fee income tied to premium growth
Management fee revenue rose from $2.44B (2023) to $3.13B (2025) as the Exchange raised rates.
- What has to hold
- The Exchange keeps growing premiums.
- The other side
- Growth slowed to 3.4% in H1 2026 as rate increases eased.
Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025; Form 10-Q Q3 2026
2. Rising dividends
Class A dividends declared rose from $4.215 (2021) to $5.5575 (2025) per share.
- What has to hold
- Earnings continue to grow.
- The other side
- The P/E was about 27 at the end of 2025.
Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025
Per-share figures are for Class A: EPS is diluted Class A (if-converted). Shares are Class A outstanding plus Class B at 2,400 to 1 (about 52.3 million). 2020 dividends include a special dividend.
20
ResilienceSite analysisShow
How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.
1. Financial buffer (FY2025)
Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year
No debt due
$380M vs. $0
Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)
Not disclosed
Interest expense isn’t reported as a separate line.
Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid
2.2x
$571M vs. $254M (FCF = operating CF − capex)
2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery
| Figure | Worst year-over-year change | Back to the prior level? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | No decline in the record | — |
| Operating income | -5.9% in FY2021 ($338M → $318M) | Yes, by FY2022 |
Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.
3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)
Debt-free balance sheet
No borrowings at the end of 2025 and $99.2M available under its line of credit.
Source: Form 10-K FY2025
Cost pass-through
Administrative services are reimbursed at cost, so they carry no margin risk.
Source: Form 10-K FY2025
21
Legal & regulatory mattersSite analysisShow
Lawsuits, government investigations, enforcement actions and settlements the company discloses — where each stands, what is at stake, and what comes next. From the 10-K's Legal Proceedings and contingencies note, the latest 10-Q, and 8-Ks.
Erie Indemnity faces a long-running class action by Exchange policyholders challenging how it set its management fee. After federal courts declined jurisdiction, the case is proceeding in Pennsylvania state court.
1 open matter
Management fee breach-of-fiduciary-duty suit (Stephenson)
PendingClass actionErie Insurance Exchange, by trustees ad litem Troy Stephenson, Christina Stephenson and Steven Barnett (Court of Common Pleas, Allegheny County, Pa.)
Alleges Indemnity breached its fiduciary duty in setting the management fee under the subscriber's agreement. The Third Circuit held in October 2025 that the claims were not barred by earlier federal judgments (Ritz, Beltz), and the Supreme Court denied review in March 2026. An amended complaint of June 11, 2026 added plaintiffs and challenges the fee for 2020 to the present.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) — Legal Proceedings
Company statement: Erie says its accruals for legal proceedings are not expected to be material, though a substantial judgment or settlement could be.
Based on Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) — Legal Proceedings, reviewed 2026-10-21. Routine ordinary-course claims are not listed. “Major” is this site’s judgment of which matters could materially affect results.
22
Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis
Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.
Risk map
Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).
Likelihood →
"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"
The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.
Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.
- 1Customer/supplier concentration
Dependence on the Exchange
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- A decline in the Exchange's business, for example from catastrophe losses, rating cuts or problems with independent agents, would cut the management fees Indemnity receives. Receivables from the Exchange are unsecured.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact High / Likelihood Med
- 2Law & regulation
Management fee litigation
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Policyholders are suing over how the management fee was set, now covering 2020 to the present.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Indemnity is defending the case.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
- 3Governance & quality
Fee rate set by the board
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- The board sets the management fee rate each year, weighing the relative financial strength of Indemnity and the Exchange.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
- 4Governance & key people
CEO and CFO succession
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Both the CEO and CFO retire at the end of 2026.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- The board has started a CEO search.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
23
What to watch going forwardSite analysis
- Growth in the Exchange's premiums written (3.4% in H1 2026).
- Developments in the management fee litigation.
- Appointment of a new CEO and CFO.
24
Source documentsShow
This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.
Last updated
Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 21, 2026 13:33 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 23, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-23
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Erie Indemnity’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.