KabuDo

NASDAQ: KDP · Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Keurig Dr Pepper

Keurig Dr Pepper, based in Frisco, Texas and formed in 2018 by combining Keurig and Dr Pepper Snapple, is a leading North American beverage company with more than 125 owned, licensed and partner brands — including Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, 7UP, A&W, Snapple, Peñafiel, GHOST and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters — plus the Keurig single-serve brewing system. 2025 net sales rose 8.2% to $16,603 million (U.S. Refreshment Beverages $10,439 million, U.S. Coffee $3,990 million, International $2,174 million) and net income was $2,079 million; Walmart accounted for about 16% of sales. In April 2026 KDP bought 97.75% of Dutch coffee company JDE Peet's for about €15.1 billion ($17.4 billion), lifting second-quarter 2026 sales 75.6%. It plans to split into two U.S.-listed companies — a beverage company and Global Coffee Co., combining Keurig coffee with JDE Peet's.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 26, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 26, 2026 13:32 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 24, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2410-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) · filed 2026-08-10Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
7.4%

Higher than 42% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
21.5%

Higher than 60% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
+0.8 pts

Higher than 39% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.2x

Higher than 75% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
0.96x

Higher than 8% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
5 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
34.1x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-06-30

Beta
0.41

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$35.78close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$48.61B

P/E today
34.1x

At FY2025 year-end: 18.3x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-06-30

P/B today
1.9x

At FY2025 year-end: 1.5x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
15.3x

At FY2025 year-end: 12.6x

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
3.1%

At FY2025 year-end: 4.0%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
2.6%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026.

These figures are behind: a newer quarter was reported on Nov 3, 2026, but SEC's structured data doesn't include it yet. Read the release ↗

  • Revenue↑ +75.6%$4.16B → $7.31B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↓ −13.0 pts21.6% → 8.6% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↓ −74.0%$547M → $142M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↓ −90.0%$0.40 → $0.04 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↑ +68.9%$898M → $1.52B (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt↑ +8.4%$22.89B → $24.82B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Nov 3, 2026.

Management outlook → Reaffirmed

Reaffirmed 2026 guidance. Source sentence
Keurig Dr Pepper Reports Q3 Results and Reaffirms Guidance for 2026

Key changes

  • Expects 2026 net sales of $25.9-$26.4 billion. Source sentence
    For 2026, KDP expects net sales of $25.9-$26.4 billion and constant currency Adjusted diluted EPS growth in a low-double-digit range.
  • Q3 net sales up 70.6% to $7.3B. Source sentence
    Net sales for the third quarter increased 70.6% to $7.3 billion and, on a constant currency basis, net sales advanced 70.1%.
  • Legacy KDP net sales up 8.6%. Source sentence
    Excluding the contribution from the JDE Peet’s acquisition, legacy KDP net sales increased 8.6%, driven by volume/mix growth of 6.5% and favorable net price realization of 2.1%.

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Headquarters
FRISCO, TX
Incorporated in
Delaware
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NASDAQ: KDP
Industry
Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
CIK
1418135

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    30,600

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 53–56 days after quarter end (Feb 24, 2026; Feb 25, 2025; Feb 22, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 23–56 days after quarter end over the last 13 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026—Nov 3, 2026Not yet filed
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Aug 6, 2026 (+37 days)Aug 10, 2026 10-Q (+41 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 23, 2026 (+23 days)Apr 23, 2026 10-Q (+23 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Feb 24, 2026 (+55 days)Feb 24, 2026 10-K (+55 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 27, 2025 (+27 days)Oct 28, 2025 10-Q (+28 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 24, 2025 (+24 days)Jul 24, 2025 10-Q (+24 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025Apr 24, 2025 (+24 days)Apr 24, 2025 10-Q (+24 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Feb 25, 2025 (+56 days)Feb 25, 2025 10-K (+56 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 24, 2024 (+24 days)Oct 24, 2024 10-Q (+24 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 25, 2024 (+25 days)Jul 25, 2024 10-Q (+25 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024Apr 25, 2024 (+25 days)Apr 25, 2024 10-Q (+25 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Feb 22, 2024 (+53 days)Feb 22, 2024 10-K (+53 days)
Q3 FY2023Sep 30, 2023Oct 26, 2023 (+26 days)Oct 26, 2023 10-Q (+26 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • U.S. Refreshment Beverages

    Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, 7UP, A&W

    Carbonated soft drinks.

  • U.S. Refreshment Beverages

    Snapple, Mott’s, Core Hydration, GHOST

    Juices, teas, waters and energy drinks.

  • U.S. Coffee

    Keurig brewing system and K-Cup pods

    Single-serve brewers and pods incl. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters and The Original Donut Shop.

  • International

    Peñafiel, Clamato and others

    Beverages in Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean.

  • JDE Peet’s

    JDE Peet’s coffee brands

    Global coffee and tea business acquired April 2026.

From the Form 10-K, FY2025.

U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services

The 10-K describes KDP as a leading beverage company in North America but gives no market-share figures.

Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. JDE Peet’s acquisition

    Tender offer at €31.85 per share; acquired 97.75% of JDE Peet’s by April 15, 2026 for about €15.1B ($17.4B).

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

  2. Planned separation

    Announced August 25, 2025: separate beverage and coffee portfolios into two independent U.S.-listed companies via a tax-free spin-off of the coffee business.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. Global Coffee Co. leadership

    Russ Torres appointed CEO of the Coffee Operating Unit and future CEO of Global Coffee Co., effective November 3, 2026.

    Source: Form 8-K (2026-10-01) — Item 8.01 Russ Torres named future CEO of Global Coffee Co.

  4. First half 2026

    Net sales $11,285M versus $7,798M; net income $480M versus $1,064M with acquisition and integration costs.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

1.07x

Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$486M ÷ $455M = 1.07x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

R&D-to-revenue ratio (FY2025)

0.4%

formularesearch & development expense ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$70M ÷ $16,603M × 100 = 0.4%

termsResearch & development (R&D) · Revenue (net sales)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$1.15B

Latest year: $149M

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $461M in FY2020 to $486M in FY2025

  • Capex
  • R&D
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-24

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$16.6B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+7.4%▲favorable

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($16,603M ÷ $11,618M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 7.4%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

21.5%

+0.2pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$3,575M ÷ $16,603M × 100 = 21.5%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

8.4%▲favorable

6-year average: 7.1%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

1.49x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$28.01 ÷ $18.78 = 1.49x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

12.6x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($38,056M + $13,931M − $1,026M) ÷ ($3,575M + $455M) = 12.6x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▲

    Revenue grew +7.4% a year over 5 years (strong growth)

    From $11.62B in FY2020 to $16.6B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ―

    Operating margin held roughly flat: 21.3% → 21.5%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +0.2 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ―

    Equity ratio is 46.0% (a middling level)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▲

    Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ―

    ROE averaged 7.1% over 6 years (latest: 8.4%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Owns and licenses soft drink, juice, water and energy brands that it manufactures and distributes through its own direct-store-delivery network and third-party bottlers, and sells Keurig brewers and K-Cup pods; JDE Peet’s adds global coffee and tea brands.

How money and goods flow at Keurig Dr Pepper
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • About 30,600 employees (23,200 in the U.S.)
    • More than 125 owned, licensed and partner brands
    • Company-owned manufacturing and distribution plus bottler licenses
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • U.S. Refreshment Beverages (CSDs, juices, waters, energy)
    • U.S. Coffee (Keurig brewers and pods)
    • International (Canada, Mexico, Caribbean)
    • JDE Peet’s coffee (from April 2026)
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Retailers (Walmart ≈16% of 2025 sales), food service, bottlers and distributors
    • Consumers buying Keurig brewers
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • U.S. Refreshment Beverages $10,439M (2025)
    • U.S. Coffee $3,990M
    • International $2,174M

How the business makes money

  • 2025 operating margin: Refreshment Beverages 28.2%, Coffee 24.1%, International 25.1%.
  • Acquired 60% of GHOST effective December 31, 2024, with the remaining 40% to be bought in 2028.
  • U.S. sales $14,502M; foreign $2,101M in 2025.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Keurig Dr Pepper buys federal tax credits and is a Superfund PRP.

  • Government funding & tax credits

    Purchased tax credits

    Agreed to purchase federal tax credits from eligible taxpayers in 2023–2025.

    Supports the businessTouches: How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Environmental rules

    Environmental and packaging rules

    Notified by the EPA that it is a PRP for Superfund cleanup costs.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Activities

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • U.S. Refreshment Beverages

    10,439 (63%)
  • U.S. Coffee

    3,990 (24%)
  • International

    2,174 (13%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Total net sales $16,603M. JDE Peet’s became a separate segment from Q2 2026.

10

Where it earnsSite analysis

Many U.S.-listed companies earn most of their revenue outside the U.S. — this breaks down revenue by country/region so it's clear where the business actually makes its money.

Largest market (FY2025)

United States — 87% of revenue

Revenue by country / region (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • United States

    14,502 (87%)
  • Foreign

    2,101 (13%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Net sales by U.S. and foreign.

11

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

12

Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow

Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.

  • Pending or recent acquisition

    GHOST

    Acquired 60% of GHOST effective December 31, 2024; agreed to buy the remaining 40% in 2028; distributes GHOST products from March 2025.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

13

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Retailers, food service, bottlers and distributors.

Named by the company

  • Walmart — About 16% of 2025 consolidated net sales, across all segments.Form 10-K (FY2025)

Suppliers

Coffee, packaging and ingredient suppliers, and third-party bottlers.

Named by the company

No single material supplier is named.

14

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

The 10-K names its primary competitors and notes many are also partners or customers.

Competitors named in the 10-K

Peer group the company chose

Compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

Current peer group from the 2026 proxy statement.

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

15

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-24

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-24

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-24

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-24

Line itemFY202010-K on EDGAR ↗FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue11,61812,68314,05714,81415,35116,603
Operating income2,4802,8942,6053,1922,5913,575
Pretax income1,7532,7981,7192,7571,9142,687
Net income (attributable)1,3252,1461,4362,1811,4412,079
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—9.2%10.8%5.4%3.6%8.2%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 10021.3%22.8%18.5%21.5%16.9%21.5%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 10011.4%16.9%10.2%14.7%9.4%12.5%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets49,77950,59851,83752,13053,43055,459
Total equity23,83024,97225,12625,67624,24325,516
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable13,48811,73311,56811,09513,93813,931
Equity ratio47.9%49.4%48.5%49.3%45.4%46.0%
ROE5.6%8.8%5.7%8.6%5.8%8.4%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF2,4562,8742,8371,3292,2191,991
Investing CF-316210-1,135-784-1,614-573
Financing CF-1,990-2,762-1,728-832-223-999
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures1,9952,4512,4849041,6561,505
Cash and equivalents2405675352675101,026
Per share & other
EPS ($)0.931.501.011.551.051.53
BVPS ($)16.9317.6117.8418.4717.8718.78
Dividend per share ($)0.600.710.780.830.890.92
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 10064.5%47.5%76.7%53.5%84.8%60.1%
P/E (x)34.424.635.321.530.618.3
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)20.519.220.415.918.912.6
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share1.892.092.001.801.801.49

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-06-30$7.31B+75.6%$628M-30.1%$142M-74.0%$0.04
2026-03-31$3.98B+9.4%$756M-5.6%$270M-47.8%$0.20
2025-12-31 †$4.5B+10.5%$881M+1298.4%$353M—
2025-09-30$4.31B+10.7%$995M+10.3%$662M+7.5%$0.49
2025-06-30$4.16B$898M$547M$0.40
2025-03-31$3.64B$801M$517M$0.38
2024-12-31 †$4.07B$63M−$144M—
2024-09-30$3.89B$902M$616M$0.45

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

16

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

7.1%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$3,575M × (1 − 22.5%) ÷ $38,814M × 100 = 7.1%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

6.30%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $38.06B ÷ ($38.06B + $13.93B) = 73.2%

e.g.Debt weight: $13.93B ÷ ($38.06B + $13.93B) = 26.8%

e.g.WACC: 7.2% × 73.2% + 5.0% × (1 − 22.5%) × 26.8% = 6.30%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+0.8pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 2 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 5.3%–7.6% and ROIC − WACC runs −0.4 to +1.8 points. The sign flips inside this range, so the result depends on the assumptions. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 6.30% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
0.41 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.01), so reliability is limited)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
7.21%
Cost of debt
4.95% (no debt on record, using the risk-free rate)
Tax rate
22.5% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
73% : 27%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 6.30%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 0.41 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.13, R² 0.01, 129 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 0.125 + 0.33 = 0.414

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity7.21%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 0.41 × 5.5% = 7.2%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$38.06B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$13.93B
Cost of debt *no debt on record, using the risk-free rate instead4.95%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)73% : 27%

17

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

3.9%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 6.3% − 2.4%

Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)

-5.5%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+7.4%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $1.51B (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $61.52B = market cap $48.61B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $13.93B − cash and short-term investments $1.03B; r = WACC of 6.3% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.41, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$62.71B

FCF $1.51B ÷ (6.3% − 3.9%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

1.02x

Above 1x: these assumptions value the business above the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r4.3%5.3%6.3%7.3%8.3%
0%0.57x0.46x0.39x0.34x0.29x
2%1.06x0.74x0.57x0.46x0.39x
4%8.15x1.88x1.06x0.74x0.57x
6%——8.15x1.88x1.06x
8%————8.15x

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

18

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.38x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): 0.2%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 133%

    Most profit comes from core operations.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 33 → 35 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-24

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-24

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding
  • Days inventory outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$1,991M ÷ $2,079M = 0.96x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

e.g.$3,575M ÷ $2,687M × 100 = 133%

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($1,502M + $1,671M) ÷ 2 ÷ $16,603M × 365 = 35 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

e.g.($1,299M + $1,733M) ÷ 2 ÷ $7,604M × 365 = 73 days

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

19

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
100%+

Reported total 106.4%

Directors & officers (shares)
<1%
Everyone else (est.)
≈0%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
<1%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
22 of 416

1 = most institutional; 5% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.41

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 1,447.7M shares reported by 855 13F filers ÷ 1,360.8M shares outstanding on 2026-08-10. Option positions are excluded.
  • The 13F total exceeds shares outstanding because some shares are reported twice — for example shares lent to short sellers and then bought by another manager, or holdings that overlapping managers both report.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-04-24 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-08-10)

20

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Strong brand portfolio

    More than 125 brands including Dr Pepper, Canada Dry and Keurig; U.S. Refreshment Beverages sales rose 11.9% in 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. High margins in beverages

    U.S. Refreshment Beverages operating margin rose to 28.2% in 2025 from 20.1%.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Steady dividend

    Dividends declared per share rose from $0.60 (2020) to $0.92 (2025).

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Coffee profit pressure

    U.S. Coffee operating income fell 10.8% in 2025 and its margin to 24.1%.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Heavy debt for JDE Peet’s

    The €15.1B ($17.4B) cash acquisition was completed in April 2026 on top of ~$13.9B of debt at end-2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

  3. 3. Customer concentration

    Walmart was about 16% of 2025 net sales.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

21

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

18.3x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

3.28%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

60%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

4.0%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Two focused companies

    Separation into a pure beverage company and a global coffee leader.

    What has to hold
    Separation completes as planned.
    The other side
    Execution risk and high leverage.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Beverage momentum

    Refreshment Beverages sales +11.9% and margin 28.2% in 2025.

    What has to hold
    Brands keep gaining share.
    The other side
    Strong competitors.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

22

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

0.3x

$1.03B vs. $3.11B

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

Not disclosed

Interest expense isn’t reported as a separate line.

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

1.2x

$1.51B vs. $1.25B (FCF = operating CF − capex)

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
RevenueNo decline in the record—
Operating income-18.8% in FY2024 ($3.19B → $2.59B)Yes, by FY2025

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Sales growth every year

    Net sales rose each year from $11,618M (2020) to $16,603M (2025).

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

24

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
1
Med
4
235
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1M&A & integration

    JDE Peet’s integration and separation

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Integrating JDE Peet’s and separating into two companies; restructuring charges of $325–400M expected through Q1 2029.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  2. 2Competition & technology shift

    Competition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Primary competitors include Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Starbucks, J.M. Smucker, Kraft Heinz and Nestlé.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  3. 3Raw materials & energy

    Coffee and input costs

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Green coffee, aluminum, PET and other input costs affect margins.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    We manage these risks through a variety of strategies, including the use of interest rate contracts, FX forward contracts, commodity forward, future, swap, and option contracts, and supplier pricing agreements.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  4. 4Customer/supplier concentration

    Retailer concentration

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Walmart is about 16% of sales.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  5. 5FX & interest rates

    Currency exposure after JDE Peet’s

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    JDE Peet’s adds large euro and other non-dollar sales.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    We use derivative instruments such as foreign exchange forward contracts to manage a portion of our exposure to changes in foreign exchange rates.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High

25

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (8)

  • In addition to the other information set forth in this Annual Report, the following factors should be considered, which could materially affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Read more

    The risks described below are not the only risks we face. Risks and uncertainties not currently known to us or that we currently deem to be immaterial also may have a material adverse affect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations.

  • • In connection with the JDE Peet's Acquisition, we expect to consummate the JV Investment, which could restrict our operational and corporate flexibility, impact our cash resources, and/or depress the market price of our common stock.

  • Refer to the Risks Related to the JDE Peet's Acquisition section for risks specific to the JDE Peet's Acquisition.

  • We may not complete the proposed JDE Peet's Acquisition within the time frame we anticipate, or at all, which could adversely affect our business.

  • On August 24, 2025, we entered into the JDE Peet's Acquisition Agreement, and on January 16, 2026, pursuant to the terms of the JDE Peet's Acquisition Agreement, we commenced a tender offer to acquire all of the issued ordinary shares of JDE Peet's. The JDE Peet's Acquisition is expected to close in the first half of 2026 and will depend on a number of conditions being satisfied, including receiving the minimum number of tenders and other closing conditions. Our ability to complete the proposed JDE Peet's Acquisition in the anticipated timeline, or at all, could be impacted by any or all of the following events, which may have an adverse impact on our business:

  • The requisite number of JDE Peet's shareholders may not tender their shares.

  • The JDE Peet's Acquisition Agreement provides that the completion of the proposed JDE Peet's Acquisition will be subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain conditions, including the minimum tender of at least 95% of the shares of JDE Peet's, which will be reduced if the shareholders of JDE Peet's adopt resolutions for the implementation of certain post-closing measures and such resolutions are in full force and effect on the tender offer closing date. Pursuant to the JDE Peet's Acquisition Agreement, the board of directors of JDE Peet's has recommended our offer to purchase JDE Peet's for acceptance by shareholders. Concurrently with the entry into the JDE Peet's Acquisition Agreement, we obtained irrevocable undertakings from Acorn Holdings B.V. and certain directors of JDE Peet's, who collectively hold in the aggregate, as of the date of such undertakings, approximately 69% of…

  • There could be legal proceedings in connection with the JDE Peet's Acquisition, the outcomes of which are uncertain, could result in substantial costs, and which could delay or prevent the completion of the JDE Peet's Acquisition.

No longer in the text (4)

  • We cannot guarantee that our share repurchase program will be fully consummated or that our share repurchase program will enhance long-term stockholder value.

  • In October 2021, our Board authorized KDP to repurchase up to $4 billion of our outstanding common stock over a four-year period, beginning on January 1, 2022, potentially enabling us to return value to shareholders. Read more

    Our repurchase program does not obligate us to repurchase any specific dollar amount or to acquire any specific number of shares. Under the terms of our share repurchase program, shares may be repurchased from time to time in open market transactions at prevailing market prices, in privately negotiated transactions, or by other means (including through the use of trading plans intended to qualify under Rule 10b5-1 under the Exchange Act) in accordance with federal securities laws. We may fund our share repurchases through cash flow from operations, borrowings, a combination of the two, or other sources of liquidity. The actual manner, timing, amount, value and…

  • We cannot guarantee that we will repurchase shares (or the terms or amount of any such repurchase) or conduct future share repurchase programs, and we cannot guarantee that any such programs will result in long-term increases to shareholder value. The existence of our stock repurchase program could also cause the price of our common stock to be higher than it would be in the absence of such a program and could potentially reduce the market liquidity for our common stock. Additionally, significant changes in laws or regulations may reduce our ability or inclination to take advantage of our share repurchase program.

  • Our financial results may be negatively impacted by recession, financial and credit market disruptions and other political, social or economic conditions.

52 more paragraphs differ; the filings below have the full text.

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2025 ↗.

26

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • Completion of the separation into a beverage company and Global Coffee Co.
  • JDE Peet’s integration and coffee profitability.
  • Debt reduction after the acquisition.
  • GHOST energy growth.

27

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 26, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 26, 2026 13:32 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 24, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-24Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Keurig Dr Pepper’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.