KabuDo

NYSE: KEY · Regional Banks

KeyCorp

KeyCorp, based in Cleveland, is one of the largest U.S. bank-based financial services companies, with $184.4 billion of assets at the end of 2025. Through KeyBank it serves individuals and small and mid-sized businesses from 940 branches and 1,120 ATMs in 15 states, and runs commercial and investment banking (KeyBanc Capital Markets) nationally. It reports two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. In 2024 it sold about $10 billion of low-yielding securities, booking a $1.8 billion loss that produced a full-year net loss, and took a strategic equity investment from Scotiabank, which now owns about 14.9% of its shares. 2025 revenue (net interest income $4,636 million plus noninterest income $2,842 million) recovered to $7,478 million and net income to $1,829 million.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 26, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 26, 2026 13:34 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 23, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2310-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-11-03Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
2.3%

Higher than 9% of 44 financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Net margin
24.5%

Higher than 71% of 45 financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

Return on equity
9.5%

Higher than 18% of 45 financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

Equity ratio
11.1%

Higher than 42% of 45 financial companies

Equity ÷ total assets

Cash conversion
1.21x

Higher than 43% of 44 financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
0 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
11.1x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
1.11

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$21.34close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$23.53B

P/E today
11.1x

At FY2025 year-end: 13.6x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
1.3x

At FY2025 year-end: 1.3x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
—

At FY2025 year-end: —

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
—

At FY2025 year-end: 9.2%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
3.8%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +8.3%$1.9B → $2.05B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +18.4%$489M → $579M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +24.4%$0.41 → $0.51 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↓ −10.0%$1.71B → $1.54B (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt↑ +4.6%$10.97B → $11.47B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
KEYCORP /NEW/
Headquarters
CLEVELAND, OH
Incorporated in
Ohio
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NYSE: KEY
Industry
Regional Banks
CIK
91576

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    17,883

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 18–21 days after quarter end (Jan 20, 2026; Jan 21, 2025; Jan 18, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 16–22 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Oct 20, 2026 (+20 days)Nov 3, 2026 10-Q (+34 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 21, 2026 (+21 days)Aug 4, 2026 10-Q (+35 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 16, 2026 (+16 days)May 5, 2026 10-Q (+35 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Jan 20, 2026 (+20 days)Feb 23, 2026 10-K (+54 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 16, 2025 (+16 days)Nov 4, 2025 10-Q (+35 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 22, 2025 (+22 days)Aug 5, 2025 10-Q (+36 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025Apr 17, 2025 (+17 days)May 6, 2025 10-Q (+36 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Jan 21, 2025 (+21 days)Feb 21, 2025 10-K (+52 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 17, 2024 (+17 days)Nov 6, 2024 10-Q (+37 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 18, 2024 (+18 days)Jul 26, 2024 10-Q (+26 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024Apr 18, 2024 (+18 days)May 2, 2024 10-Q (+32 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Jan 18, 2024 (+18 days)Feb 22, 2024 10-K (+53 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Consumer Bank

    Retail and small business banking

    Deposits, mortgages, home equity, cards and wealth management through branches and digital channels.

  • Commercial Bank

    Commercial lending and payments

    Loans, treasury and payments services for middle-market and larger companies.

  • Commercial Bank

    KeyBanc Capital Markets

    Investment banking, debt placement and capital markets services.

From the Form 10-K, FY2025.

U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services

The 10-K calls KeyCorp one of the nation’s largest bank-based financial services companies but gives no market-share figures.

Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. Balance sheet repositioning

    Sold and reinvested about $10.0B of lower-yielding securities in the second half of 2024, taking a $1.8B loss to lift future net interest income.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. Scotiabank investment

    Investment Agreement of August 12, 2024; Scotiabank holds about 14.9% of shares with rights to designate up to two directors.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. Capital actions

    $1.0B share repurchase program authorized March 13, 2025; notice given in August 2026 to redeem all Series D preferred stock on September 15, 2026.

    Source: Form 8-K (2026-08-14) — Item 8.01 redemption of Series D preferred stock

  4. Q2 2026

    Net interest income (TE) up $108M year over year and margin up 23bp; average deposits $147.6B.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

1.23x

Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$107M ÷ $87M = 1.23x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$87M

Latest year: $0

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $63M in FY2020 to $107M in FY2025

  • Capex
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Total revenue (FY2025)

$7.48B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+2.3%

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($7,478M ÷ $6,686M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 2.3%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

9.5%▲favorable

6-year average: 8.4%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

1.27x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$20.64 ÷ $16.27 = 1.27x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

  • ―

    Revenue grew +2.3% a year over 5 years (modest growth)

    From $6.69B in FY2020 to $7.48B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ▲

    Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 8.4% over 6 years (latest: 9.5%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Gathers deposits and lends to consumers and businesses, earning net interest income, plus fees from investment banking and debt placement, trust and investment services, cards and payments, and commercial mortgage servicing.

How money and goods flow at KeyCorp
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • 17,883 employees (end-2025)
    • 940 branches and 1,120 ATMs in 15 states
    • Average deposits of about $148B
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Consumer Bank: branch banking, mortgages, wealth
    • Commercial Bank: lending, payments, investment banking (KeyBanc Capital Markets)
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Individuals and small businesses in 15 states
    • Middle-market and larger companies nationwide
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Net interest income $4,636M (2025)
    • Noninterest income $2,842M

How the business makes money

  • Segment revenue (TE) 2025: Commercial Bank $4,039M, Consumer Bank $3,666M.
  • Noninterest income was 38% of total revenue in 2025 (18% in 2024 because of the securities loss).
  • Residential mortgages are about 62% of consumer loans.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

KeyCorp invests in tax-credit programs and is exposed to the debit interchange cap.

  • Government funding & tax credits

    Tax-credit investments

    Recognized $258M of tax credits from qualified investments in 2025.

    Supports the businessTouches: How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Regulated prices & reimbursement

    Debit interchange cap

    The Federal Reserve proposed in October 2023 to lower the debit interchange cap for issuers with $10B or more in assets.

    Constrains the businessTouches: How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Commercial Bank

    4,039 (52%)
  • Consumer Bank

    3,666 (48%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Segment total revenue on a taxable-equivalent basis; other items not shown.

10

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

11

Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow

Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.

  • Capital tie / equity stake

    Scotiabank

    Strategic minority investment under an August 12, 2024 Investment Agreement; holds about 14.9% of KeyCorp’s common shares and may designate up to two directors.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

12

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Individuals, small businesses and commercial clients.

Named by the company

No single customer is material.

Suppliers

Technology vendors and service providers.

Named by the company

No material supplier is named.

13

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

The 10-K lists competitor types — banks, credit unions, nonbank lenders, investment managers, private credit funds, fintechs and others — without naming firms.

Competitors named in the 10-K

Peer group the company chose

Compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

2025 peer group from the 2026 proxy statement.

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

14

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Total revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-23

Line itemFY202010-K on EDGAR ↗FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue6,6867,2657,2456,3834,5747,478
Pretax income1,5563,2542,3331,160-3062,304
Net income (attributable)1,3432,6251,917967-1611,829
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—8.7%-0.3%-11.9%-28.3%63.5%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 10020.1%36.1%26.5%15.1%-3.5%24.5%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets170,336186,346189,813188,281187,168184,381
Total equity17,98117,42313,45414,63718,17620,381
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable13,70912,04219,30719,55412,1059,917
Equity ratio10.6%9.3%7.1%7.8%9.7%11.1%
ROE7.5%14.8%12.4%6.9%-1.0%9.5%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF1,6731,1534,4692,9036642,208
Investing CF-24,721-15,068-10,9341,4172,4973,219
Financing CF23,40713,7376,439-4,266-2,359-5,883
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures1,6101,0874,3732,7615992,101
Cash and equivalents1,0919138879411,7431,287
Per share & other
EPS ($)1.272.631.930.88-0.321.52
BVPS ($)16.5316.7611.7913.0214.2116.27
Dividend per share ($)0.740.750.790.820.820.82
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 10058.3%28.5%40.9%93.2%—53.9%
P/E (x)12.98.89.016.4—13.6
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share0.991.381.481.111.211.27

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Periods below 1x are shown in red. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$2.05B+8.3%$579M+18.4%$0.51
2026-06-30$1.96B+6.7%$509M+19.8%$0.44
2026-03-31$1.95B+10.2%$522M+28.9%$0.44
2025-12-31 †$2.01B+131.8%$510M—
2025-09-30$1.9B$489M$0.41
2025-06-30$1.84B$425M$0.35
2025-03-31$1.77B$405M$0.33
2024-12-31 †$865M−$244M—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

15

Measures that fit this businessFrom SEC data

ROIC and free cash flow don’t suit a bank, so these are the usual yardsticks instead.

CET1 capital ratio
11.78%

December 31, 2025

Assets under management or administration
$70.0 billion

Registered investment advisory subsidiaries

As stated by the company: Form 10-K (FY2025)

MeasureFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Return on equityNet income ÷ stockholders’ equity.7.5%14.8%12.4%6.9%-1.0%9.5%
Net interest income ÷ average assetsSpread earned on the balance sheet; a stand-in for net interest margin, which uses earning assets.—2.3%2.4%2.1%2.0%2.5%
Noninterest expense ÷ revenueThe efficiency ratio. Lower means less cost for each dollar of revenue.61.5%61.0%60.9%74.2%99.4%62.9%
Credit provision ÷ average loansCredit cost: what the year set aside for expected loan losses. Negative means a net release.—-0.4%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.4%
Credit allowance ÷ loansThe reserve held against loan losses at year-end.1.6%1.0%1.1%1.3%1.4%1.3%
Loans ÷ depositsHow much of the deposit base is lent out.74.8%66.8%83.7%77.3%69.6%71.6%
Equity ÷ total assetsThe accounting cushion. Regulatory capital ratios are listed separately above when the filing states them.10.6%9.3%7.1%7.8%9.7%11.1%

Computed from SEC XBRL figures. A dash means the company doesn’t tag that figure or the result fell outside a plausible range. Tagging differs between filers, so check the filing before comparing two companies closely.

16

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

Banks, insurers, and similar financial companies aren’t compared this way, since deposits/policies are the business itself and debt can’t be cleanly separated from operating capital.

17

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Not applied to banks, insurers, and similar financial companies: their operating cash flow includes deposits or premiums held for customers, so it isn’t free cash flow available to investors.

18

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

Financial companies’ operating cash flow behaves differently from an operating company’s, so this analysis doesn’t apply.

19

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
88.5%
Directors & officers (shares)
<1%
Everyone else (est.)
11.5%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
<1%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
216 of 416

1 = most institutional; 52% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
1.11

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 944.5M shares reported by 938 13F filers ÷ 1,067.1M shares outstanding on 2026-07-31. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table (percentage computed from the group’s share count ÷ shares outstanding); includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-03-27 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-31)

20

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Earnings recovery

    Net income rose to $1,829M in 2025 from a $161M loss in 2024; net interest income rose to $4,636M.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Stronger capital base

    Scotiabank’s 2024 investment raised shares outstanding to about 1.1B; book value per common share rose to $16.27 at end-2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Fee businesses

    Noninterest income of $2,842M in 2025, including trust and investment services of $591M.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Volatile earnings

    Net income fell from $2,625M (2021) to a loss in 2024 because of the $1.8B securities repositioning loss.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Dividend flat

    Dividends per share were $0.82 in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Shareholder dilution

    Shares outstanding rose from about 937M (2023) to 1.1B after the Scotiabank investment.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

21

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

13.6x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

3.97%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

54%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

  1. 1. Higher net interest income

    The 2024 securities repositioning lifted net interest income in 2025.

    What has to hold
    Rates and deposit costs cooperate.
    The other side
    Rate cuts could slow gains.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Book value recovery

    Book value per common share rose from $11.79 (2022) to $16.27 (2025).

    What has to hold
    AOCI losses keep shrinking.
    The other side
    Credit losses could rise.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Banks do not report operating income; revenue is net interest income plus noninterest income. 2024 includes a $1.8B securities loss.

22

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

For an insurer or bank, debt-coverage ratios like these don’t describe its ability to absorb losses — that depends on its capital, reserves, and investment portfolio, which are covered in part 3 below.

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-28.3% in FY2024 ($6.38B → $4.57B)Yes, by FY2025
Net income-116.6% in FY2024 ($967M → −$161M)Yes, by FY2025

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Loss year contained

    The only loss year (2024) came from a deliberate securities sale; net interest income kept rising in 2025.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

24

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
1
Med
35
24
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Demand & macro

    Credit losses

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Provision for credit losses was $471M in 2025; weaker economic conditions could raise losses.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  2. 2FX & interest rates

    Interest rate risk

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Net interest income and the value of securities depend on interest rates.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    In addition, we enter into interest rate derivatives to offset or mitigate the interest rate risk related to the client positions.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  3. 3Governance & key people

    Scotiabank influence

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Scotiabank holds about 14.9% of common shares and can designate up to two directors.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  4. 4Competition & technology shift

    Deposit competition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competes with banks, credit unions, fintechs and non-bank alternatives such as stablecoins for deposits.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  5. 5Law & regulation

    Bank regulation

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Capital, liquidity and supervisory requirements affect returns.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med

25

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (8)

  • After disruptions in 2022 through early 2024 as a result of the increases in the Fed Funds rate and dislocations in the office sector as a result of COVID-19, the commercial and residential real estate markets have remained relatively steady over the past 18 months as they have adjusted to a more “normalized” rate environment. Capitalization rates and commercial property prices have been supported by a continued inflow of capital into the real estate markets. However, potential headwinds (labor market, geo-political, rate environment) could impact the real estate markets and Key’s portfolio moving forward.

  • A large portion of our clients are active in real estate, with most focused on the multifamily space, which has been the best performing real estate sector over the cycle. Read more

    However, while development and construction have continued

  • at muted levels over the past two years, oversupply of multifamily housing is a concern in certain urban markets. Read more

    This oversupply has resulted in higher vacancy rates and put pressure on some borrowers to achieve underwritten rents. These two factors impact the ability of borrowers to generate sufficient cash flow in order to make debt service payments on loans or to refinance the loans at maturity. Key’s risk to any specific market is limited, with all metropolitan statistical area concentrations less than 4%. Further, Key has limited its exposure to rent-controlled properties across the country, with no exposure to rent-controlled properties in New York City.

  • An inability to grow cash flow or pressure on expenses created by supply chain, insurance, or interest rate increases would result in an increase in the level of payment defaults within the sector, as well as limiting refinance options. Read more

    Further, these pressures would likely result in an outflow of capital from the real estate markets, which would in turn drive up capitalization rates and decrease property values.

  • Present risks to stable asset prices include, but are not limited to:

  • To facilitate our wholesale funding and other business activities, we maintain credit ratings with three major credit rating agencies, and their assessments of our capital and liquidity are prominent determinants of our credit ratings. Read more

    Additionally, from time to time, the agencies revise their bank rating methodologies and may increase their expectations of the amount and/or type of capital and liquidity we hold in order to maintain our investment grade credit ratings. In certain cases, those rating agency requirements may exceed regulatory requirements, making the

  • rating agency requirements our binding constraint and increasing our capital and/or liquidity costs above what they would otherwise be and potentially reducing our profitability.

  • A loss of customer deposits or an adverse change in deposit mix could increase our funding costs and/or impair our liquidity.

No longer in the text (4)

  • Our ERM program incorporates risk management throughout our organization to identify, understand, and manage the risks presented by our business activities. Read more

    Our ERM program identifies Key’s major risk categories as: compliance risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, market risk, credit risk, model risk, reputation risk, strategic risk, and estimates and assumptions risk. These risk factors, and other risks we may face, are discussed in more detail in other sections of this report.

  • Recent Federal Reserve monetary policy, including shrinkage of its balance sheet and incremental increases in target interest rates early in 2023 followed by a sustained period of relatively higher target interest rates throughout the latter part of 2023 and 2024, continue to impact the commercial and residential real estate markets. Capitalization rates have risen, and property value appreciation has slowed and continues to decline. In many markets within Key’s footprint, property values continue to decrease. Industrial and retail properties continue to remain stable, but multifamily, office, hospitality, and single family detached properties show signs of deterioration. Development and construction continue, but at muted levels, and deliveries of additional units into the market have been supported. Oversupply of multifamily housing is a concern in certain urban and gateway markets.…

  • The most severely impacted commercial real estate segments have been in office. Read more

    Key’s non-owner occupied office exposures are 5% of our total commercial real estate exposure. Substantial deterioration in property market fundamentals could negatively impact our portfolio, with a large portion of our clients active in real estate but in the comparatively better performing multifamily space over the cycle. A correction in the real estate markets could impact the ability of borrowers to make debt service payments on loans or to refinance the loans at maturity.

  • Further, as market conditions evolve and respond to the influence of government agency initiatives, or lack thereof, the slope of the yield curve will shift and influence our loan and deposit rates and value of investments. Read more

    The actions of federal agencies are not fully predictable which contributes to market volatility and changes to the slope of the yield curve.

11 more paragraphs differ; the filings below have the full text.

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 21, 2025 ↗.

26

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • Net interest margin trend (up 23bp year over year in Q2 2026).
  • Credit quality in commercial real estate and consumer loans.
  • Capital return as capital ratios rise.
  • Relationship with Scotiabank.

27

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 26, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 26, 2026 13:34 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 23, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-23Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent KeyCorp’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.