KabuDo

NASDAQ: LITE · Communications Equipment

Lumentum

Lumentum, based in San Jose and spun off from JDSU (now Viavi), makes optical and photonic products — lasers, transceivers and optical components and systems — used in cloud and AI data centers, telecom networks, consumer devices and industrial applications, and calls itself an industry leader by revenue and market share. Fiscal 2026 revenue (year ended June 27, 2026) jumped 83% to $3,014 million (Components $2,006 million, Systems $1,008 million) on AI/ML data center demand, and operating income turned to $525 million. Yet it reported a net loss of $6,935 million because converting and retiring convertible notes produced a $7.76 billion non-cash loss on debt extinguishment. In March 2026 NVIDIA bought $2.0 billion of Lumentum convertible preferred stock. Two customers made up 26.6% and 15.0% of revenue, and BIS and DOJ subpoenaed records about its past business with Huawei.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 27, 2026 15:56 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: August 17, 2026

Built on10-K FY2026 · filed 2026-08-1710-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-26) · filed 2026-11-03Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2027’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
11.6%

Higher than 70% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
17.4%

Higher than 47% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2026)

ROIC minus WACC
-6.9 pts

Higher than 9% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-1.7x

Higher than 5% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
—

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
—

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
—

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-26

Beta
1.93

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$636.83close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$56.42B

P/E today
—

At FY2026 year-end: —

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-26

P/B today
12.1x

At FY2026 year-end: 15.6x

Book value at FY2026 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
84.6x

At FY2026 year-end: 110.1x

EBITDA for FY2026

FCF yield today
0.5%

At FY2026 year-end: 0.4%

Free cash flow for FY2026

Dividend yield today
—

Dividends per share for FY2026

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 26, 2026.

  • Net income↑ +8478.6%$4M → $360M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +6980.0%$0.05 → $3.54 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↓ −37.7%$2.04B → $1.27B (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt↓ −14.5%$1.64B → $1.4B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Nov 2, 2026.

Management outlook • Issued

Forecasts fiscal Q2 revenue of $1.575B–$1.625B. Source sentence
Forecasting second quarter of fiscal year 2027 revenue of $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion; non-GAAP operating margin of 45.0% to 46.0%; and non-GAAP diluted net income per share of $5.90 to $6.20.

Key changes

  • Held $2.0B of cash and short-term investments. Source sentence
    The Company held $2.0 billion in total cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, a decrease of $758.8 million from the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026.

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Headquarters
SAN JOSE, CA
Incorporated in
Delaware
Fiscal year end
06/27
Exchange & ticker
NASDAQ: LITE
Industry
Communications Equipment
CIK
1633978

Workforce (as of FY2026 year-end)

  • Employees

    13,757

Source: Form 10-K (FY2026) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q2 FY2027

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q2 results were released 38–40 days after quarter end (Feb 3, 2026; Feb 6, 2025; Feb 8, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around June 27.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 37–46 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q1 FY2027Sep 26, 2026Nov 2, 2026 (+37 days)Nov 3, 2026 10-Q (+38 days)
Q4 FY2026Jun 27, 2026Aug 11, 2026 (+45 days)Aug 17, 2026 10-K (+51 days)
Q3 FY2026Mar 28, 2026May 5, 2026 (+38 days)May 6, 2026 10-Q (+39 days)
Q2 FY2026Dec 27, 2025Feb 3, 2026 (+38 days)Feb 4, 2026 10-Q (+39 days)
Q1 FY2026Sep 27, 2025Nov 4, 2025 (+38 days)Nov 5, 2025 10-Q (+39 days)
Q4 FY2025Jun 28, 2025Aug 12, 2025 (+45 days)Aug 19, 2025 10-K (+52 days)
Q3 FY2025Mar 29, 2025May 6, 2025 (+38 days)May 7, 2025 10-Q (+39 days)
Q2 FY2025Dec 28, 2024Feb 6, 2025 (+40 days)Feb 6, 2025 10-Q (+40 days)
Q1 FY2025Sep 28, 2024Nov 7, 2024 (+40 days)Nov 8, 2024 10-Q (+41 days)
Q4 FY2024Jun 29, 2024Aug 14, 2024 (+46 days)Aug 21, 2024 10-K (+53 days)
Q3 FY2024Mar 30, 2024May 6, 2024 (+37 days)May 7, 2024 10-Q (+38 days)
Q2 FY2024Dec 30, 2023Feb 8, 2024 (+40 days)Feb 8, 2024 10-Q (+40 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Components

    Lasers and optical chips

    Semiconductor lasers and optical chips for data center and telecom applications.

  • Components

    Transceivers

    High-speed optical transceivers for cloud and AI networks (incl. Cloud Light).

  • Systems

    Optical subsystems

    Optical transport and switching subsystems.

From the Form 10-K, FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27.

U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services

The 10-K calls Lumentum an industry-leading provider of optical and photonic products based on revenue and market share but gives no percentage.

Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. NVIDIA investment

    March 2, 2026: sold ≈2.9M shares of Series A convertible preferred to NVIDIA at $695.31 each ($2.0B).

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

  2. Balance sheet reshaping

    Issued 2032 notes ($1.25B net), repurchased part of the 2026 notes and equitized $1.1B of convertible notes in fiscal 2026.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

  3. Acquisitions history

    Bought Oclaro (2018), NeoPhotonics and IPG’s telecom transmission lines (2022) and Cloud Light (2023).

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2026)

3.50x

Well above depreciation — expansion-stage investment

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$451M ÷ $129M = 3.50x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

R&D-to-revenue ratio (FY2026)

11.8%

formularesearch & development expense ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$357M ÷ $3,014M × 100 = 11.8%

termsResearch & development (R&D) · Revenue (net sales)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$1.6B

Latest year: $38M

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $85M in FY2021 to $451M in FY2026

  • Capex
  • R&D
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-08-17

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2021–FY2026, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2026)

$3.01B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+11.6%▲favorable

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($3,014M ÷ $1,743M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 11.6%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2026)

17.4%▼caution

-12.8pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$525M ÷ $3,014M × 100 = 17.4%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2026)

-240.0%▼caution

6-year average: -43.7%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2026 end)

15.59x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$816.98 ÷ $52.41 = 15.59x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2026 end)

110.1x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($72,384M + $1,637M − $2,044M) ÷ ($525M + $129M) = 110.1x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▲

    Revenue grew +11.6% a year over 5 years (strong growth)

    From $1.74B in FY2021 to $3.01B in FY2026. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ▼

    Operating margin declined: 30.2% → 17.4%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved -12.8 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ▲

    Equity ratio is 63.5% (a high level of financial stability)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ―

    Free cash flow was positive in 4 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▼

    ROE averaged -43.7% over 6 years (latest: -240.0%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Designs and manufactures lasers, optical chips, transceivers and optical subsystems and sells them to network equipment makers, cloud and AI data center operators, consumer electronics and industrial customers.

How money and goods flow at Lumentum
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • About 13,757 employees (11,916 in manufacturing)
    • Laser and optical component manufacturing
    • Technology from Oclaro, NeoPhotonics and Cloud Light acquisitions
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Components: lasers, optical chips, transceivers
    • Systems: optical subsystems and modules
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Cloud/AI data center and network equipment customers (Customer A 26.6%, Customer B 15.0% of FY2026 revenue)
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Components $2,006M (FY2026)
    • Systems $1,008M

How the business makes money

  • 79.2% of fiscal 2026 revenue shipped to customers outside the U.S.
  • Largest ship-to countries: Thailand and the U.S. (20.8% each), Hong Kong 17.2%, Mexico 14.7%.
  • One reportable segment.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Lumentum faces export control compliance risk.

  • Trade & export rules

    Export controls, sanctions and tariffs

    Failure to comply with export control laws could bring significant penalties.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Customers

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026)

Revenue by segment (FY2026)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Components

    2,005.6 (67%)
  • Systems

    1,008.4 (33%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27) Net revenue by product type; one reportable segment. Total $3,014M.

10

Where it earnsSite analysis

Many U.S.-listed companies earn most of their revenue outside the U.S. — this breaks down revenue by country/region so it's clear where the business actually makes its money.

Largest market (FY2026)

United States — 21% of revenue

Revenue by country / region (FY2026)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Thailand

    626.6 (21%)
  • United States

    627.9 (21%)
  • Hong Kong

    519.3 (17%)
  • Mexico

    443.7 (15%)
  • China

    284.8 (9%)
  • Japan

    104.6 (3%)
  • Other

    407.1 (14%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27) Net revenue by customer shipping location; Other = remainder.

11

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

12

Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow

Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.

13

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Cloud, AI data center, network equipment, consumer and industrial customers.

Named by the company

Customer A 26.6% and Customer B 15.0% of fiscal 2026 revenue; the 10-K does not name them.

Suppliers

Semiconductor materials and contract manufacturers in Asia.

Named by the company

No material supplier is named.

14

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

The 10-K says competitors include many domestic and international public and private companies without naming them.

Competitors named in the 10-K

Peer group the company chose

Compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

Fiscal 2026 peer group from the 2026 proxy statement.

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

15

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-08-17

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-08-17

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-08-17

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-08-17

Line itemFY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗FY202610-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue1,7431,7131,7671,3591,6453,014
Operating income527303-116-434-180525
Net income (attributable)397199-132-54626-6,935
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—-1.7%3.2%-23.1%21.0%83.2%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 10030.2%17.7%-6.5%-31.9%-10.9%17.4%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 10022.8%11.6%-7.4%-40.2%1.6%-230.1%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets3,5524,1624,6323,9324,2197,308
Total equity1,9731,8751,3569571,1354,644
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable1,5322,411—2,5032,5731,637
Equity ratio55.5%45.0%29.3%24.3%26.9%63.5%
ROE20.1%10.3%-8.1%-47.3%2.5%-240.0%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF73945918025126751
Investing CF1-226-874-114-84-785
Financing CF-263283263-333421,557
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures65436851-108-105300
Cash and equivalents7741,2908594375212,044
Per share & other
EPS ($)5.072.68-1.93-8.120.37-92.96
BVPS ($)27.0227.5720.4214.1016.2652.41
P/E (x)16.529.0——256.1—
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)11.116.7———110.1
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share3.092.822.783.615.8315.59

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-26—$360M+5270.1%$360M+8478.6%$3.54
2026-06-27 †—$279M−$7.16B-3457.6%—
2026-03-28—$175M$144M$1.50
2025-12-27—$64M$78M$0.89
2025-09-27—$7M$4M$0.05
2025-06-28 †$481M−$8M$213M—
2025-03-29$425M−$38M−$44M$-0.64
2024-12-28$402M−$52M−$61M$-0.88

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

16

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2026)

8.3%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$525M × (1 − 21%) ÷ $4,995M × 100 = 8.3%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

15.24%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $72.38B ÷ ($72.38B + $1.64B) = 97.8%

e.g.Debt weight: $1.64B ÷ ($72.38B + $1.64B) = 2.2%

e.g.WACC: 15.6% × 97.8% + 1.3% × (1 − 21%) × 2.2% = 15.24%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

-6.9pt▼caution

Falling short of the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in only 0 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 12.5%–18.4% and ROIC − WACC runs −10.1 to −4.2 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 15.24% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
1.93 (price-derived adjusted beta)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
15.57%
Cost of debt
1.33%
Tax rate
21% (U.S. federal statutory rate (not enough data for an effective rate))
Capital structure (equity : debt)
98% : 2%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 15.24%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 1.93 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 2.40, R² 0.25, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 2.395 + 0.33 = 1.934

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity15.57%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 1.93 × 5.5% = 15.6%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$72.38B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$1.64B
Cost of debt1.33%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)98% : 2%

17

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

14.7%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 15.2% − 0.5%

Past FCF growth (FY2021–FY2026)

-14.4%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Past revenue growth (FY2021–FY2026)

+11.6%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Inputs (FY2026): free cash flow $300M (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $55.32B = market cap $56.42B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $1.64B − cash and short-term investments $2.74B; r = WACC of 15.2% using this page’s default assumptions (β 1.93, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$9.38B

FCF $300M ÷ (15.2% − 12.0%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

0.17x

Below 1x: these assumptions value the business below the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r13.2%14.2%15.2%16.2%17.2%
0%0.04x0.04x0.04x0.03x0.03x
2%0.05x0.04x0.04x0.04x0.04x
4%0.06x0.05x0.05x0.04x0.04x
6%0.08x0.07x0.06x0.05x0.05x
8%0.10x0.09x0.08x0.07x0.06x

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

18

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 3.01x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -133.4%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-08-17

Profit bridge (FY2026)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-08-17

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days inventory outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

e.g.($470M + $692M) ÷ 2 ÷ $1,681M × 365 = 126 days

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

19

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
91.8%
Directors & officers (shares)
<1%
Everyone else (est.)
8.2%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
<1%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
167 of 416

1 = most institutional; 40% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
1.93

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 82.3M shares reported by 1,318 13F filers ÷ 89.7M shares outstanding on 2026-08-14. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-10-06 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-K cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-08-14)

20

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. AI-driven growth

    Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 83% to $3,014M; Components +80% and Systems +91%.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

  2. 2. Strategic investor

    NVIDIA bought about 2.9M Series A convertible preferred shares for $2.0B in March 2026.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

  3. 3. Market position

    Industry-leading provider of optical and photonic products by revenue and market share, per its 10-K.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Huge accounting loss

    $7.76B loss on debt extinguishment produced a FY2026 net loss of $6,935M.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

  2. 2. Customer concentration

    Two customers accounted for 26.6% and 15.0% of fiscal 2026 revenue.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

  3. 3. Earlier losses

    Operating losses in fiscal 2023–2025 before the AI ramp.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

21

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2026)

—

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2026)

—

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2026)

—

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2026)

0.4%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. AI networking exposure

    Lasers and transceivers for AI data centers.

    What has to hold
    AI spending continues.
    The other side
    Highly concentrated customers.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

  2. 2. Operating turnaround

    Operating income of $525M in FY2026 after losses.

    What has to hold
    Volumes and pricing hold.
    The other side
    Cyclical optical industry.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

Fiscal 2026 net loss reflects a non-cash $7.76B loss on debt extinguishment from convertible note conversions; operating income was positive. Lumentum pays no dividend.

22

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2026)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

0.9x

$2.74B vs. $3.19B

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

24.1x

$525M vs. $22M

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

—

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-23.1% in FY2024 ($1.77B → $1.36B)Yes, by FY2026
Operating income-138.1% in FY2023 ($303M → −$116M)Yes, by FY2026

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2021–FY2026), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Recovered from downturn

    Revenue fell to $1,359M in fiscal 2024 and recovered to $3,014M in fiscal 2026.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-27)

24

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
2
1
Med
5
34
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Customer/supplier concentration

    Customer concentration

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    A few cloud and network customers account for a large share of revenue.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  2. 2Demand & macro

    AI capex cycle

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Growth depends on continued AI/ML data center spending.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  3. 3Geopolitics & supply chain

    Export controls and Asia manufacturing

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Much production and shipments are in Asia; BIS and DOJ subpoenaed Huawei-related records.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  4. 4Competition & technology shift

    Competition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competes with larger domestic and international companies and new entrants.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    We continue to invest in research and development to develop innovative components and modules for telecommunications networks, such as higher capacity ROADMs and tunable laser and coherent components and transceiver modules needed for long-haul and metro applications.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  5. 5Funding & liquidity

    Convertible notes dilution

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Note conversions and preferred stock add shares and accounting volatility.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med

25

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (8)

  • We operate in a market where demand can fluctuate rapidly and we may not be able to predict or quickly respond to trends in the dynamics of our markets and our customers or changes in customer demand, which could negatively impact our gross margins. Although AI is a relatively new demand driver for our products, it is evolving rapidly, and the expected timing and amount of investments related to AI can change significantly. As a result, it may be difficult to accurately forecast such demand and we may incur costs in anticipation of demand that ultimately does not materialize. We manufacture and purchase or commit to supplies based on forecasts of demand from our customers. If we overestimate demand, or if customers cancel or defer orders, change requirements or choose to purchase from our competitors, we may not be able to utilize on-hand inventory or reduce purchase commitments…

  • Our ability to meet demand is influenced by numerous factors, including changes in product development cycles, ramping technologies, and evolving customer requirements. Read more

    Our ability to increase supply of our products is especially dependent on our ability to increase our manufacturing capacity, both at our own facilities and those of our contract manufacturers. Our ability to increase production is subject to a number of uncertainties inherent in all new manufacturing operations, including ongoing compliance with regulatory requirements, procurement and maintenance of construction, environmental and operational licenses and approvals for additional expansion, clean-room capacity, supply chain constraints, hiring, training and retention of qualified employees, implementing highly complex manufacturing processes, and the pace of bringing production equipment and processes online with the…

  • If demand exceeds our forecasts, we may be unable to scale and increase supply sufficiently to meet such demand, which could result in a loss of revenue, decisions about manufacturing priorities, decisions on supply allocation, damage to customer relationships, legal or other disputes, loss of business and market share to competitors, and loss of future opportunities.

  • If we are unable to successfully identify, acquire and integrate suitable businesses, our operating results and prospects could be harmed, and any businesses we acquire may not perform as expected or be effectively integrated.

  • Negotiations for potential acquisitions or other transactions may result in diversion of management’s time and significant out-of-pocket costs. Read more

    In addition, we may face risk related to:

  • We seek to protect our products, technologies, and product roadmaps in part through a combination of patents, trade secrets, know-how, trademarks, copyrights, and ongoing technological innovation. Read more

    Our ability to protect our intellectual property is limited, however, because unauthorized use, misappropriation, or infringement of our proprietary rights is difficult, time-consuming, and costly to detect and prevent. The steps we take to protect our intellectual property may be inadequate to prevent third parties from misappropriating our technology or independently developing competing or similar products.

  • Other companies may be developing technologies that are similar or superior to our own. Read more

    In addition, there may be existing patents or other intellectual property rights of which we are unaware that could be relevant to our business. Patent applications are often not published until issued or published after a delay, and as such, we cannot be certain that our products do not infringe pending third-party patent applications. Our pending or future patent applications may not result in issued patents, and any patents that do issue may not provide sufficiently broad protection to prevent others from developing, making, using, or selling products similar to ours, or may be challenged, invalidated, circumvented, or deemed unenforceable.

  • We do not hold intellectual property rights in every jurisdiction in which we sell or distribute our products. Read more

    As a result, competitors may be able to offer identical or similar products in jurisdictions where we lack patent or other intellectual property protection. Further, intellectual property laws and enforcement mechanisms vary by jurisdiction, and certain regions, including Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America, may not protect our intellectual property rights to the same extent as the United States.

No longer in the text (4)

  • Unstable market and economic conditions and adverse developments with respect to financial institutions and associated liquidity risk may have serious adverse consequences on our business and financial condition.

  • Disruptions in access to bank deposits or lending commitments due to bank failures could adversely affect our liquidity, our business and financial condition. Read more

    The failure of any bank or financial institution in which we deposit our funds or assets could reduce the amount of cash we have available for our operations or delay our ability to access such funds. Any such failure may increase the possibility of a sustained deterioration of financial market liquidity. The value of our investment portfolio could also be impacted if we hold debt instruments which were issued by any institutions that fail or become illiquid. Our ability to obtain raw materials for our supply chain and collections of cash from sales may be unduly impacted if any of our vendors or customers are affected by illiquidity events.

  • companies seek alternative solutions, which has reduced the demand for our products from some of our Chinese customers;

  • We have also faced litigation in connection with acquisitions, some of which continues following the consummation of the acquisition. Read more

    Such litigation may be costly and diverts management time and attention.

27 more paragraphs differ; the filings below have the full text.

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Aug 17, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Aug 19, 2025 ↗.

26

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • AI transceiver and laser demand.
  • Customer concentration.
  • BIS/DOJ Huawei review.
  • Further note conversions.

27

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 27, 2026 15:56 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: August 17, 2026

Built on10-K FY2026 · filed 2026-08-17Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2027’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Lumentum’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.