KabuDo

NYSE: MA · Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Mastercard

Mastercard, based in Purchase, New York, runs a global payments network connecting consumers, banks, merchants, governments and businesses, and sells value-added services such as cybersecurity, fraud prevention, data analytics and open banking. It does not issue cards or lend; it earns fees on gross dollar volume, cross-border transactions and switched transactions — $10.6 trillion of GDV and 175.5 billion switched transactions in 2025. Net revenue rose 16% to $32,791 million: payment network $19,476 million and value-added services and solutions $13,315 million (+23%). With an operating margin of about 58%, net income reached $14,968 million. Mastercard repurchased $11.7 billion of stock and paid $2.8 billion of dividends in 2025. Its five largest customers made up 21% of revenue, and it faces a DOJ investigation of its U.S. debit business and remaining interchange claims in the U.K. and Europe.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 29, 2026 13:20 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 11, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-1110-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-29Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
16.5%

Higher than 83% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
57.6%

Higher than 98% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
+51.1 pts

Higher than 97% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.4x

Higher than 27% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
1.18x

Higher than 20% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
5 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
34.9x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
0.80

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$661.42close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$591.24B

P/E today
34.9x

At FY2025 year-end: 34.6x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
76.3x

At FY2025 year-end: 65.9x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
29.9x

At FY2025 year-end: 25.9x

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
2.9%

At FY2025 year-end: 3.4%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
0.5%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +14.0%$8.6B → $9.81B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↑ +0.9 pts58.8% → 59.8% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +17.9%$3.93B → $4.63B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +21.7%$4.34 → $5.28 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↓ −10.1%$11.29B → $10.15B (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt↓ −2.9%$24.64B → $23.94B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Oct 29, 2026.

Key changes

  • Q3 net revenue $9.8B, up 14%. Source sentence
    Third quarter net revenue of $9.8 billion, an increase of 14%, as reported and on a currency-neutral basis
  • Gross dollar volume up 7%; purchase volume up 9%. Source sentence
    Third quarter gross dollar volume up 7% and purchase volume up 9%, on a local currency basis

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
Mastercard Inc
Headquarters
PURCHASE, NY
Incorporated in
Delaware
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NYSE: MA
Industry
Transaction & Payment Processing Services
CIK
1141391

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    39,800

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 29–31 days after quarter end (Jan 29, 2026; Jan 30, 2025; Jan 31, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 29–31 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Oct 29, 2026 (+29 days)Oct 29, 2026 10-Q (+29 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 30, 2026 (+30 days)Jul 30, 2026 10-Q (+30 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 30, 2026 (+30 days)Apr 30, 2026 10-Q (+30 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Jan 29, 2026 (+29 days)Feb 11, 2026 10-K (+42 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 30, 2025 (+30 days)Oct 30, 2025 10-Q (+30 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 31, 2025 (+31 days)Jul 31, 2025 10-Q (+31 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025May 1, 2025 (+31 days)May 1, 2025 10-Q (+31 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Jan 30, 2025 (+30 days)Feb 12, 2025 10-K (+43 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 31, 2024 (+31 days)Oct 31, 2024 10-Q (+31 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 31, 2024 (+31 days)Jul 31, 2024 10-Q (+31 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024May 1, 2024 (+31 days)May 1, 2024 10-Q (+31 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Jan 31, 2024 (+31 days)Feb 13, 2024 10-K (+44 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Payment network

    Mastercard network

    Credit, debit and prepaid card and digital payment processing.

  • Services

    Cyber and fraud solutions

    Fraud scoring and cyber threat intelligence incl. Recorded Future.

  • Services

    Data, consulting and open banking

    Analytics, loyalty, consulting and open banking services.

From the Form 10-K, FY2025.

U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services

The 10-K notes some competitors have more market share in certain jurisdictions but gives no Mastercard share figures.

Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. Q3 2026

    Net revenue $9.8B (+14%); operating margin 59.8%; net income $4.6B and EPS $5.28 (+22%); gross dollar volume +7% and purchase volume +9% (local currency). Mastercard highlighted agentic commerce and its new Global Money Platform through BVNK.

    Source: Q3 2026 earnings release

  2. Services growth

    Value-added services and solutions revenue rose 23% to $13,315M in 2025.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. Capital return

    Repurchased 21.1M shares for $11.7B and paid $2.8B of dividends in 2025.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  4. Cyber intelligence

    Combining network visibility with Recorded Future’s threat intelligence to prevent payment fraud.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

0.43x

Below depreciation — investment is being pared back

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$489M ÷ $1,143M = 0.43x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$8.25B

Latest year: $0

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $339M in FY2020 to $489M in FY2025

  • Capex
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-11

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$32.79B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+16.5%▲favorable

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($32,791M ÷ $15,301M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 16.5%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

57.6%▲favorable

+4.8pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$18,897M ÷ $32,791M × 100 = 57.6%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

210.5%▲favorable

6-year average: 157.5%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

65.88x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$570.88 ÷ $8.67 = 65.88x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

25.9x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($510,310M + $19,000M − $10,566M) ÷ ($18,897M + $1,143M) = 25.9x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▲

    Revenue grew +16.5% a year over 5 years (strong growth)

    From $15.3B in FY2020 to $32.79B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ▲

    Operating margin improved: 52.8% → 57.6%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +4.8 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ▼

    Equity ratio is 14.3% (relatively heavy reliance on debt)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▲

    Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 157.5% over 6 years (latest: 210.5%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Operates the network that authorizes, clears and settles card and digital payments between issuing and acquiring banks, charging fees based on volume and transactions, and sells data, security, consulting and open banking services.

How money and goods flow at Mastercard
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • About 39,800 employees (≈70% outside the U.S.)
    • Global payments network and the Mastercard brand
    • Data, cybersecurity and AI capabilities (incl. Recorded Future)
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Payment network (assessments, switching, cross-border)
    • Value-added services and solutions (security, analytics, open banking, consulting)
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Banks and financial institutions (five largest ≈21% of revenue)
    • Merchants, governments and digital partners
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Payment network $19,476M (2025)
    • Value-added services and solutions $13,315M

How the business makes money

  • GDV $10.6T (+9%), cross-border volume +15%, switched transactions 175.5B (+10%) in 2025.
  • Net revenue up 16% (15% currency-neutral).
  • Operating margin about 58%.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Mastercard receives some government grants and is audited as a government contractor.

  • Government funding & tax credits

    Government grants

    Received multi-year government grants in 2025 for investments in selected locations.

    Supports the businessTouches: Inputs & resources

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Government as customer

    Government contractor audits

    As a government contractor, it is subject to audits of contract performance and compliance.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Customers

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Regulated prices & reimbursement

    Interchange administration

    Administers collection and remittance of interchange fees through settlement.

    Supports and constrainsTouches: How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Payment network

    19,476 (59%)
  • Value-added services and solutions

    13,315 (41%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Net revenue by component; one reportable segment. Total $32,791M.

10

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

11

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Banks, merchants, governments and digital partners.

Named by the company

The five largest customers accounted for about 21% of 2025 net revenue; none is named.

Suppliers

Technology and data center providers.

Named by the company

No material supplier is named.

12

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

The 10-K names other payment networks it competes with worldwide.

Competitors named in the 10-K

Payment networks

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

13

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-11

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-11

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-11

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-11

Line itemFY202010-K on EDGAR ↗FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue15,30118,88422,23725,09828,16732,791
Operating income8,08110,08212,26414,00815,58218,897
Pretax income7,76010,30711,73213,63915,25418,578
Net income (attributable)6,4118,6879,93011,19512,87414,968
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—23.4%17.8%12.9%12.2%16.4%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 10052.8%53.4%55.2%55.8%55.3%57.6%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 10041.9%46.0%44.7%44.6%45.7%45.6%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets33,58437,66938,72442,44848,08154,157
Total equity6,4887,3836,3566,9756,5157,746
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable12,67213,90114,02315,68118,22619,000
Equity ratio19.0%19.4%16.3%16.3%13.5%14.3%
ROE100.3%126.8%145.9%169.3%191.9%210.5%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF7,2249,46311,19511,98014,78017,648
Investing CF-1,879-5,272-1,470-1,351-3,402-1,362
Financing CF-2,152-6,555-10,328-9,488-10,836-14,179
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures6,8859,05610,75311,60914,30617,159
Cash and equivalents10,1137,4217,0088,5888,44210,566
Per share & other
EPS ($)6.378.7610.2211.8313.8916.52
BVPS ($)6.527.536.657.467.138.67
Dividend per share ($)1.641.812.042.372.743.15
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 10025.7%20.7%20.0%20.0%19.7%19.1%
P/E (x)56.041.034.036.137.934.6
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)41.333.226.127.429.825.9
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share54.7547.6952.3057.1473.8265.88

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$9.81B+14.0%$5.86B+15.8%$4.63B+17.9%$5.28
2026-06-30$9.28B+14.1%$5.59B+17.0%$4.39B+18.6%$4.97
2026-03-31$8.4B+15.8%$4.91B+18.3%$3.88B+18.4%$4.35
2025-12-31 †$8.81B+17.6%$4.91B+24.7%$4.06B+21.5%—
2025-09-30$8.6B$5.06B$3.93B$4.34
2025-06-30$8.13B$4.78B$3.7B$4.07
2025-03-31$7.25B$4.15B$3.28B$3.59
2024-12-31 †$7.49B$3.94B$3.34B—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

14

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

60.2%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$18,897M × (1 − 18%) ÷ $25,744M × 100 = 60.2%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

9.12%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $510.31B ÷ ($510.31B + $19B) = 96.4%

e.g.Debt weight: $19B ÷ ($510.31B + $19B) = 3.6%

e.g.WACC: 9.4% × 96.4% + 3.6% × (1 − 18%) × 3.6% = 9.12%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+51.1pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 6 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 7.5%–11.1% and ROIC − WACC runs +49.0 to +52.7 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 9.12% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
0.80 (price-derived adjusted beta)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
9.35%
Cost of debt
3.58%
Tax rate
18% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
96% : 4%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 9.12%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 0.80 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.69, R² 0.25, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 0.694 + 0.33 = 0.795

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity9.35%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 0.8 × 5.5% = 9.4%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$510.31B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$19B
Cost of debt3.58%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)96% : 4%

15

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

6.3%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 9.1% − 2.9%

Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+20.0%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+16.5%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $17.16B (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $599.68B = market cap $591.24B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $19B − cash and short-term investments $10.57B; r = WACC of 9.1% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.80, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$612.82B

FCF $17.16B ÷ (9.1% − 6.3%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

1.02x

Above 1x: these assumptions value the business above the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r7.1%8.1%9.1%10.1%11.1%
0%0.40x0.35x0.31x0.28x0.26x
2%0.56x0.47x0.40x0.35x0.31x
4%0.92x0.70x0.56x0.47x0.40x
6%2.60x1.36x0.92x0.70x0.56x
8%—28.61x2.60x1.36x0.92x

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

16

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.12x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -5.2%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 102%

    Most profit comes from core operations.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 63 → 47 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-11

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-11

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$17,648M ÷ $14,968M = 1.18x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

e.g.$18,897M ÷ $18,578M × 100 = 102%

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($3,773M + $4,609M) ÷ 2 ÷ $32,791M × 365 = 47 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

17

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else — Class A shares, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
88.9%
Directors & officers (shares)
<1%

of Class A shares

Everyone else (est.)
11.1%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
—

not stated in the proxy

Institutional-ownership rank
209 of 416

1 = most institutional; 50% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.80

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 773.0M shares reported by 3,611 13F filers ÷ 869.5M Class A shares outstanding on 2026-07-27. Option positions are excluded.
  • Only the listed Class A shares are counted; other share classes (often held by founders) are not in this figure.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table (percentage computed from the group’s share count ÷ shares outstanding); includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-04-27 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-27)

18

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Exceptional margins

    Operating income of $18,897M on $32,791M of net revenue in 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Fast-growing services

    Value-added services revenue grew 23% in 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Large capital returns

    $11.7B of buybacks and $2.8B of dividends in 2025; dividend rose every year from $1.64 (2020) to $3.15 (2025).

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Customer concentration

    Five largest customers generated about $6.9B (21%) of 2025 net revenue.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Regulatory scrutiny

    DOJ civil investigative demand on U.S. debit and an EU investigation into network fees.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Note 19, Legal and Regulatory Proceedings

  3. 3. Thin equity

    Equity of $7.7B versus $19.0B of debt after years of buybacks.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

19

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

34.6x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

0.55%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

19%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

3.4%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Digital payments growth

    Volume growth from the shift to electronic payments.

    What has to hold
    Cash keeps declining.
    The other side
    Regulation of fees.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Compounding returns

    High margins and buybacks.

    What has to hold
    Growth continues.
    The other side
    Litigation and regulatory costs.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Shares are Class A plus Class B outstanding; book value per share uses total equity.

20

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

14.1x

$10.57B vs. $749M

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

27.8x

$18.9B vs. $680M

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

6.2x

$17.16B vs. $2.76B (FCF = operating CF − capex)

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
RevenueNo decline in the record—
Operating incomeNo decline in the record—

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Steady growth

    Net revenue rose every year from $15,301M (2020) to $32,791M (2025).

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

22

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
4
1
Med
35
2
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Law & regulation

    Interchange and network regulation

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Regulation of interchange, routing and network fees, and antitrust investigations in the U.S. and EU.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  2. 2Competition & technology shift

    Competition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competes with Visa, American Express, JCB, China UnionPay, Discover, debit networks and new technologies incl. digital currencies.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  3. 3Customer/supplier concentration

    Large customers

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Loss of a major issuer’s card programs could reduce revenue.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  4. 4Information security

    Cyberattacks

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    A breach of the network would damage trust.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    We engage in many efforts to mitigate information security challenges, including maintaining an information security program, an enterprise resilience program and insurance coverage, as well as regularly testing our systems to address potential vulnerabilities.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Low
  5. 5Geopolitics & supply chain

    Cross-border and geopolitics

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Cross-border revenue is sensitive to travel and geopolitical events.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med

23

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (1)

  • • Uncertain global trade policies and related government actions (including those related to tariffs), which could have an adverse impact on our business (including with respect to consumer and business spending) and relationships with stakeholders

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2025 ↗.

24

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • DOJ debit investigation and EU fee investigation.
  • Value-added services growth.
  • Cross-border volumes.
  • U.S. merchant litigation and legislation.

25

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 29, 2026 13:20 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 11, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-11Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Mastercard’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.