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NASDAQ: EXE · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Expand Energy

Expand Energy, formerly Chesapeake Energy, says it is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. by net daily production. It operates in the Haynesville (Louisiana and Texas), Northeast Appalachia (Pennsylvania) and Southwest Appalachia (West Virginia and Ohio). It took its current name after acquiring Southwestern Energy on October 1, 2024. 2025 production averaged 7,183 MMcfe per day and proved reserves were 25,880 Bcfe at year-end. Total revenues were $12,124 million and net income $1,819 million. In 2026 it changed CEO, moved its headquarters to the Houston area and acquired gas marketer Twin Eagle for about $1.25 billion.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 31, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 22, 2026 12:08 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 18, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-1810-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-27Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
1.1%

Higher than 8% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
20.4%

Higher than 57% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
+1.3 pts

Higher than 41% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.8x

Higher than 33% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
2.52x

Higher than 85% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
2 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
7.7x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
0.49

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$88.27close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$21.12B

P/E today
7.7x

At FY2025 year-end: 14.6x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
1.1x

At FY2025 year-end: 1.4x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
4.7x

At FY2025 year-end: 5.6x

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
8.7%

At FY2025 year-end: 7.0%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
3.6%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +10.8%$2.97B → $3.29B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↓ −5.0 pts24.4% → 19.5% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↓ −5.1%$547M → $519M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↓ −1.8%$2.28 → $2.24 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↓ −82.2%$663M → $118M (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt↑ +25.7%$3.69B → $4.63B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Oct 27, 2026.

Management outlook • Issued

Expects average daily production of about 7.45–7.55 Bcfe/d. Source sentence
Average daily production is expected to be approximately 7.45 – 7.55 Bcfe/d.

Key changes

  • Operating cash flow $1,177M. Source sentence
    Net cash provided by operating activities of $1,177 million, driven by operational performance and liquids revenue
  • Repurchased $305M of stock. Source sentence
    Repurchased $305 million of common stock in the third quarter; year-to-date repurchases total approximately $900 million or 4% of shares outstanding

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
EXPAND ENERGY Corp
Headquarters
SPRING, TX
Incorporated in
Oklahoma
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NASDAQ: EXE
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
CIK
895126

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    1,600

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 48–57 days after quarter end (Feb 17, 2026; Feb 26, 2025; Feb 20, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 27–57 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Oct 27, 2026 (+27 days)Oct 27, 2026 10-Q (+27 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 28, 2026 (+28 days)Jul 28, 2026 10-Q (+28 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 28, 2026 (+28 days)Apr 28, 2026 10-Q (+28 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Feb 17, 2026 (+48 days)Feb 18, 2026 10-K (+49 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 28, 2025 (+28 days)Oct 28, 2025 10-Q (+28 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 29, 2025 (+29 days)Jul 29, 2025 10-Q (+29 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025Apr 29, 2025 (+29 days)Apr 29, 2025 10-Q (+29 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Feb 26, 2025 (+57 days)Feb 26, 2025 10-K (+57 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 29, 2024 (+29 days)Oct 29, 2024 10-Q (+29 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 29, 2024 (+29 days)Jul 29, 2024 10-Q (+29 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024Apr 30, 2024 (+30 days)Apr 30, 2024 10-Q (+30 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Feb 20, 2024 (+51 days)Feb 21, 2024 10-K (+52 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Haynesville

    Natural gas

    Examples: Haynesville and Bossier Shales (Louisiana, Texas)

    3,000 MMcf per day in 2025.

  • Northeast Appalachia

    Natural gas

    Examples: Marcellus Shale (Pennsylvania)

    2,624 MMcf per day in 2025.

  • Southwest Appalachia

    Natural gas, oil and NGL

    Examples: Marcellus and Utica Shales (West Virginia, Ohio)

    1,559 MMcfe per day in 2025, including 81 MBbl per day of NGL.

2025 average daily production from the FY2025 Form 10-K.

U.S., worldwide and country/regional share of flagship products/services

Only shares the company itself states (in its filings or press releases, sometimes citing a research firm) are shown. Scope and timing vary by figure — treat these as approximate.

  • Natural gas production

    Independent U.S. natural gas producers, by net daily production

    U.S. share

    Largest

    Company-disclosed

    The 10-K states it is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S., based on net daily production.

    Worldwide share

    —

    Not disclosed

Sources:

No percentage share is given.

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. Q3 2026

    Net income $519M ($2.24 per diluted share), adjusted $338M ($1.46); operating cash flow $1,177M; production 7.54 Bcfe/d (92% gas). Total debt was $4.6B (0.8x leverage), and Expand repurchased $305M of stock in Q3, about $900M (4% of shares) year to date.

    Source: Q3 2026 earnings release

  2. Leadership

    Nick Dell'Osso was replaced as CEO in February 2026; Chairman Michael Wichterich served as interim CEO and Daniel E. Brown was appointed CEO in October 2026.

    Source: Forms 8-K 2026-02-09 and 2026-10-19

  3. Headquarters

    Plans to move headquarters from Oklahoma City to its existing office in Spring, Texas (greater Houston) in mid-2026.

    Source: Form 8-K 2026-02-09

  4. Twin Eagle

    Acquisition of a natural gas marketing and optimization business completed September 16, 2026.

    Source: Form 8-K 2026-09-16

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

0.92x

Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$2,736M ÷ $2,980M = 0.92x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

M&A spend (4-year total)

$2.43B

Latest year: $0

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $1.82B in FY2022 to $2.74B in FY2025

  • Capex
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2022–FY2025, 4 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$12.12B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (3 years)

+1.1%

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($12,124M ÷ $11,743M) ^ (1÷3) − 1 = 1.1%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

20.4%▼caution

-11.8pt vs. 3 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$2,471M ÷ $12,124M × 100 = 20.4%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

10.1%▲favorable

4-year average: 24.0%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

1.42x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$110.36 ÷ $77.65 = 1.42x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

5.6x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($26,404M + $5,009M − $616M) ÷ ($2,471M + $2,980M) = 5.6x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ―

    Revenue grew +1.1% a year over 3 years (modest growth)

    From $11.74B in FY2022 to $12.12B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ▼

    Operating margin declined: 32.2% → 20.4%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved -11.8 points over 3 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ▲

    Equity ratio is 65.7% (a high level of financial stability)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▲

    Free cash flow was positive in 4 of 4 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 24.0% over 4 years (latest: 10.1%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Develops shale natural gas, oil and NGL and sells production and third-party volumes through its marketing business.

How money and goods flow at Expand Energy
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • About 1,600 employees
    • Proved reserves 25,880 Bcfe (end-2025)
    • Capital expenditures $2.7B (2025)
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Drilling and completion in the Haynesville and Appalachia
    • Natural gas marketing
    • Vertically integrated drilling rigs and oilfield services
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Natural gas purchasers; one purchaser accounted for 11% of 2025 revenues before hedging
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Natural gas, oil and NGL $8,476M
    • Marketing $3,163M
    • Derivative gains $550M (2025)

How the business makes money

  • Natural gas made up 6,600 of 7,183 MMcfe per day of 2025 production.
  • Natural gas, oil and NGL revenues before derivatives were $7,433M, $319M and $724M in 2025.
  • Average realized price including derivatives was $3.30 per Mcfe in 2025.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Expand Energy is exposed to steel tariffs and possible carbon fees.

  • Trade & export rules

    Steel tariffs

    Monitors tariffs on steel and their effect on costs.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Inputs & resources

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Environmental rules

    Carbon taxes or fees

    Federal or state carbon taxes could raise operating costs.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Activities

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Natural gas, oil and NGL

    8,476 (70%)
  • Marketing

    3,163 (26%)
  • Gains on derivatives

    550 (5%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — consolidated statements of operations Total revenues and other $12,124M, including $(65)M of losses on asset sales.

10

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

11

Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow

Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.

  • Pending or recent acquisition

    Southwestern Energy

    Acquired on October 1, 2024 for about 95.7 million shares of common stock.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Pending or recent acquisition

    Twin Eagle Holdings N.A.

    Acquired the natural gas marketing and logistics business on September 16, 2026 for a base price of $1.25 billion.

    Source: Form 8-K (2026-09-16) — Twin Eagle closing

12

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Natural gas, oil and NGL purchasers and marketing counterparties.

Named by the company

The purchaser accounting for 11% of 2025 revenues is not named.

Suppliers

Drilling, completion and midstream service providers; the company also runs its own drilling rigs.

Named by the company

No supplier is named.

13

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

Expand Energy competes with major integrated and independent natural gas and oil companies, pipeline marketing affiliates and other marketers; the 10-K names none.

Competitors named in the 10-K

No competitor is named in the 10-K.

Peer group the company chose

Relative TSR peer group (10 companies plus 2 indices), from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

Used for relative total shareholder return in performance share awards, alongside the S&P 500 and S&P Oil & Gas E&P Select Industry indices.

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

14

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Line itemFY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue11,7438,7214,23512,124
Operating income3,7803,142-8032,471
Pretax income3,6513,117-8412,282
Net income (attributable)4,9362,419-7141,819
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—-25.7%-51.4%186.3%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 10032.2%36.0%-19.0%20.4%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 10042.0%27.7%-16.9%15.0%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets15,46814,37627,89428,287
Total equity9,12410,72917,56518,578
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable3,0932,0285,6805,009
Equity ratio59.0%74.6%63.0%65.7%
ROE66.7%24.4%-5.0%10.1%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF4,1252,3801,5654,575
Investing CF-3,401473-1,904-2,759
Financing CF-1,446-1,892-419-1,515
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures2,30255181,839
Cash and equivalents1301,079317616
Per share & other
EPS ($)33.3616.92-4.557.57
BVPS ($)67.7382.0375.7977.65
Dividend per share ($)4.79as paid 9.59÷21.81as paid 3.62÷22.44split during this year3.19
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 10014.4%10.7%—42.1%
P/E (x)2.84.6—14.6
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)2.82.430.75.6
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share1.390.941.311.42

Because of stock splits, all per-share figures are restated onto the most recent period’s share count (the as-filed figure is shown underneath). A payout ratio isn’t computed for a year in which a split occurred mid-year, since the interim and final dividend use different bases. P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Periods below 1x are shown in red. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$3.29B+10.8%$640M-11.7%$519M-5.1%$2.24
2026-06-30$2.96B-19.8%$661M-47.9%$522M-46.1%$2.19
2026-03-31$4.4B+100.2%$1.53B$1.16B$4.81
2025-12-31 †$3.27B+63.5%$745M$553M—
2025-09-30$2.97B$725M$547M$2.28
2025-06-30$3.69B$1.27B$968M$4.02
2025-03-31$2.2B−$268M−$249M$-1.06
2024-12-31 †$2B−$386M−$399M—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

Data left out of this analysis

  • FY2020: Predecessor Chesapeake before emergence from Chapter 11 on February 9, 2021 and fresh-start accounting; not comparable.
  • FY2021: FY2021 straddles the February 9, 2021 emergence from Chapter 11 and fresh-start accounting; the successor period is not a full year.

15

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

8.3%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$2,471M × (1 − 21%) ÷ $23,416M × 100 = 8.3%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

7.02%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $26.4B ÷ ($26.4B + $5.01B) = 84.1%

e.g.Debt weight: $5.01B ÷ ($26.4B + $5.01B) = 15.9%

e.g.WACC: 7.6% × 84.1% + 4.7% × (1 − 21%) × 15.9% = 7.02%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+1.3pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 3 of 4 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 5.8%–8.5% and ROIC − WACC runs −0.2 to +2.5 points. The sign flips inside this range, so the result depends on the assumptions. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 7.02% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
0.49 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.01), so reliability is limited)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
7.64%
Cost of debt
4.69%
Tax rate
21% (U.S. federal statutory rate (not enough data for an effective rate))
Capital structure (equity : debt)
84% : 16%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 7.02%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 0.49 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.23, R² 0.01, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 0.233 + 0.33 = 0.486

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity7.64%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 0.49 × 5.5% = 7.6%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$26.4B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$5.01B
Cost of debt4.69%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)84% : 16%

16

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

-0.2%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 7.0% − 7.2%

Past FCF growth (FY2022–FY2025)

-7.2%

Compound annual rate, 3 years

Past revenue growth (FY2022–FY2025)

+1.1%

Compound annual rate, 3 years

Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $1.84B (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $25.51B = market cap $21.12B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $5.01B − cash and short-term investments $616M; r = WACC of 7.0% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.49, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$25.54B

FCF $1.84B ÷ (7.0% − -0.2%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

1.00x

Above 1x: these assumptions value the business above the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
0%1.44x1.20x1.03x0.90x0.80x
2%2.40x1.80x1.44x1.20x1.03x
4%7.21x3.60x2.40x1.80x1.44x
6%——7.21x3.60x2.40x
8%————7.21x

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

17

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.44x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -9.8%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 108%

    Most profit comes from core operations.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 45 → 43 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$4,575M ÷ $1,819M = 2.52x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

e.g.$2,471M ÷ $2,282M × 100 = 108%

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($1,226M + $1,599M) ÷ 2 ÷ $12,124M × 365 = 43 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

18

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
95.3%
Directors & officers (shares)
<1%
Everyone else (est.)
4.7%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
—

not stated in the proxy

Institutional-ownership rank
118 of 416

1 = most institutional; 28% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.49

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 220.6M shares reported by 849 13F filers ÷ 231.5M shares outstanding on 2026-07-24. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table (percentage computed from the group’s share count ÷ shares outstanding); includes shares they can acquire within 60 days. No group total is given; computed from the sum of the listed directors’ and officers’ holdings.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed None (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-24)

19

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Scale in natural gas

    Largest independent U.S. natural gas producer by net daily production, at 7,183 MMcfe per day in 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025

  2. 2. Large reserves

    Proved reserves of 25,880 Bcfe at end-2025, of which 18,576 Bcfe was developed.

    Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025

  3. 3. Strong 2026 earnings

    Net income was $2,200M in the first nine months of 2026 versus $1,266M a year earlier, including $519M in Q3.

    Evidence: Form 10-Q Q3 2026

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Gas price exposure

    Net income swung from $4,936M (2022) to a $714M loss (2024) and $1,819M (2025).

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  2. 2. Management turnover

    New CEO, CFO and chief accounting officer were appointed in 2026 after the CEO was replaced in February.

    Evidence: Forms 8-K 2026

20

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

14.6x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

2.89%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

42%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

7.0%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Natural gas leverage

    Largest independent U.S. gas producer, positioned near high-demand markets.

    What has to hold
    Gas demand grows, including LNG and power.
    The other side
    Earnings swing with gas prices.

    Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025

  2. 2. Base plus variable dividend

    Dividends of $3.19 per share in 2025, including a $0.89 variable dividend.

    What has to hold
    Free cash flow stays strong.
    The other side
    Variable dividends vary with prices.

    Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025

FY2020–FY2021 are omitted because of the 2021 Chapter 11 emergence and fresh-start accounting. FY2024 includes Southwestern only from October 1, 2024. Dividends per share sum base and variable dividends; book value uses shares issued.

21

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

No debt due

$616M vs. $0

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

10.5x

$2.47B vs. $235M

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

2.4x

$1.84B vs. $765M (FCF = operating CF − capex)

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-51.4% in FY2024 ($8.72B → $4.24B)Yes, by FY2025
Operating income-125.6% in FY2024 ($3.14B → −$803M)Not yet, as of FY2025

Covers only the 4 fiscal years on record (FY2022–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Hedging

    Uses derivatives to reduce price volatility.

    Source: Form 10-K FY2025

  • Two basins

    Production split between the Haynesville and Appalachia.

    Source: Form 10-K FY2025

23

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
1
Med
234
Low
5
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Demand & macro

    Natural gas prices

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    A 10% price change would have changed 2025 natural gas revenue by about $743M.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Derivative hedging.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  2. 2Law & regulation

    Environmental and climate regulation

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Drilling, emissions and climate rules may raise costs or limit operations.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  3. 3M&A & integration

    Acquisition integration

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Integration of Southwestern and Twin Eagle's marketing business.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  4. 4Governance & key people

    Leadership transition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Daniel E. Brown becomes CEO around October 26, 2026 after an interim CEO period.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  5. 5Customer/supplier concentration

    Purchaser concentration

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    One purchaser accounted for 11% of 2025 revenues before hedging.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Low / Likelihood Med

24

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (8)

  • We depend on third-party pipelines and other investments to provide us certain gathering and transportation assets. Read more

    During the fourth quarter of 2022, we entered into an agreement with Momentum Sustainable Ventures LLC to build a new natural gas gathering pipeline and carbon capture project, the New Generation Gas Gathering pipeline (the “NG3 pipeline”), to gather and treat natural gas produced in the Haynesville Shale for delivery to Gulf Coast markets, including LNG export. We have a 35% interest in the joint venture entity. On October 1, 2025, the NG3 pipeline was placed in service and began gathering operations. We rely on the NG3 pipeline to provide to us certain gathering, processing and transportation services. We have a gathering agreement in which approximately 900 MMcf per day, on average, of natural gas are to be gathered and processed by the NG3 pipeline over the course of…

  • We entered into a joint venture, and may in the future enter into additional or modify existing joint ventures, that might restrict our operational and corporate flexibility. Read more

    In addition, we exercise no control over joint venture partners and it may be difficult or impossible for us to cause these joint ventures or partners to take actions that we believe would be in our or the joint venture's best interests and these joint ventures are subject to many of the same risks to which we are subject.

  • We entered into a joint venture primarily pertaining to the building of a new natural gas gathering pipeline and carbon capture project, the NG3 pipeline, and may in the future enter into additional joint venture arrangements with third parties. Joint venture arrangements may restrict our operational and corporate flexibility. Because we do not control all of the decisions of our joint ventures or joint venture partners, either because we do not have a controlling interest in the venture or are not an operator under the agreement, it may be difficult or impossible for us to cause these joint ventures or partners to take actions that we believe would be in our or the joint venture's best interests. Moreover, joint venture arrangements involve various risks and uncertainties, such as committing that we fund operating and/or capital expenditures, the timing and amount of which we may not…

  • The departure of key management personnel and the failure to attract and retain talent could adversely affect our operations.

  • Our success depends upon the continued contributions of our senior executives. Read more

    If one or more of our executive officers are unable or unwilling to continue in their current positions, we may not be able to replace them readily, if at all. Additionally, we may incur additional expenses to recruit and retain new executive officers. Because of these factors, the loss of any one or more members of our executive management team, for any reason, including resignation or retirement, could impair our ability to execute our business strategy and have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

  • Although we have endeavored to implement these management transitions in a non-disruptive manner, such transitions can be inherently difficult to manage and may hamper our ability to meet our financial and operational goals. Read more

    Such changes may also give rise to uncertainty among our customers, investors, vendors, employees and others concerning our future direction and performance. Any of the foregoing could result in significant disruptions to our operations and may adversely affect our financial condition, results of operations and ability to execute on our business plans.

  • Our ability to declare and pay dividends, and to repurchase common stock, is subject to limitations.

  • The payment of future dividends on, and any repurchases of, our common stock are each subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors, taking into consideration, among other factors, financial results, cash requirements, future prospects, restrictions under our indentures and other financing agreements, restrictions under Oklahoma law, general business and market conditions, and other factors the Board of Directors deems relevant. The Board of Directors is not required to declare dividends on or repurchase our common stock and may decide not to declare dividends or repurchase common stock at the current rate or at all. Any downward revision in the amount of dividends we pay to stockholders, or reduction in the pace or amount of share repurchases, could have an adverse effect on the market price of our common stock.

No longer in the text (4)

  • Failure to successfully integrate the business of the Company and Southwestern or realize the anticipated benefits of the Southwestern Merger may adversely affect our future results and financial condition.

  • The Southwestern Merger involved the combination of two companies that previously operated as independent public companies until October 1, 2024. Read more

    The combination of two independent businesses is complex, costly and time consuming, and we will be required to continue to devote significant management attention and resources to integrating the business practices and operations of Southwestern into the Company. Potential difficulties that we may encounter as part of the integration process include the following:

  • • the inability to successfully combine the business of the Company and Southwestern in a manner that permits us to achieve, on a timely basis, or at all, the enhanced revenue opportunities and cost savings and other benefits anticipated to result from the Southwestern Merger;

  • • complexities associated with managing the combined businesses, including difficulty addressing possible differences in operational philosophies and the challenge of integrating complex systems, technology, networks and other assets of each of the companies in a seamless manner that minimizes any adverse impact on customers, suppliers, employees and other constituencies;

16 more paragraphs differ; the filings below have the full text.

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2025 ↗.

25

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • New CEO: Daniel E. Brown, former CEO of Chord Energy, appointed President and CEO.
  • Twin Eagle integration: Marketing integration after the September 2026 closing.
  • Debt: Issued $500M of 5.650% senior notes due 2031 in September 2026.

26

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 31, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 22, 2026 12:08 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 18, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-18Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Expand Energy’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.