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NASDAQ: MRNA · Biotechnology

Moderna

Moderna, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a pioneer of mRNA medicines. Its commercial products are COVID vaccines (Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, launched in the third quarter of 2025) and the RSV vaccine mRESVIA, and it is developing vaccines and therapeutics for infectious diseases, cancer and rare diseases. Revenue soared to $18,471 million in 2021 and $19,263 million in 2022 on pandemic COVID vaccine sales, then fell to $1,944 million in 2025 as demand faded; net losses were $4,714 million (2023), $3,561 million (2024) and $2,822 million (2025). Moderna has been cutting costs and raising capital — a $1.5 billion Ares-led term loan facility (November 2025) and $3.0 billion of 0% convertible notes (September 2026) — and in March 2026 settled the Arbutus/Genevant patent litigation, recording $876 million in cost of sales. The FDA refused to file its flu vaccine application in February 2026.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:52 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 20, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2010-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-11-06Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
19.3%

Higher than 86% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
-158.1%

Higher than 0% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
-37.4 pts

Higher than 0% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
—

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
—

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
—

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-06-30

Beta
0.95

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$249.96close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$98.48B

P/E today
—

At FY2025 year-end: —

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-06-30

P/B today
11.4x

At FY2025 year-end: 1.3x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
—

At FY2025 year-end: —

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
-2.1%

At FY2025 year-end: -17.8%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
—

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026.

These figures are behind: a newer quarter was reported on Nov 6, 2026, but SEC's structured data doesn't include it yet. Read the release ↗

  • Revenue↑ +2.1%$142M → $145M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↑ +76.7 pts-638.7% → -562.1% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ −$782M−$825M → −$782M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ $-1.97$-2.13 → $-1.97 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↓ −9.7%$1.91B → $1.72B (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt→ +0.2%$590M → $591M (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Jul 31, 2026.

Management outlook • Issued

Targets up to 10% revenue growth from 2025. Source sentence
Revenue: The Company is targeting up to 10% growth from 2025 revenue and expects 2026 revenue split to be approximately 50% U.S. and approximately 50% international.

Key changes

  • Paid $950M in July for the litigation settlement. Source sentence
    The Company subsequently paid $950 million in July 2026 related to the litigation settlement announced in the first quarter of 2026.

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
Moderna, Inc.
Headquarters
CAMBRIDGE, MA
Incorporated in
Delaware
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NASDAQ: MRNA
Industry
Biotechnology
CIK
1682852

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    4,700

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 44–53 days after quarter end (Feb 13, 2026; Feb 14, 2025; Feb 22, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 31–53 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Nov 6, 2026 (+37 days)Nov 6, 2026 10-Q (+37 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 31, 2026 (+31 days)Jul 31, 2026 10-Q (+31 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026May 1, 2026 (+31 days)May 1, 2026 10-Q (+31 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Feb 13, 2026 (+44 days)Feb 20, 2026 10-K (+51 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Nov 6, 2025 (+37 days)Nov 6, 2025 10-Q (+37 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Aug 1, 2025 (+32 days)Aug 1, 2025 10-Q (+32 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025May 1, 2025 (+31 days)May 1, 2025 10-Q (+31 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Feb 14, 2025 (+45 days)Feb 21, 2025 10-K (+52 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Nov 7, 2024 (+38 days)Nov 7, 2024 10-Q (+38 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Aug 1, 2024 (+32 days)Aug 1, 2024 10-Q (+32 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024May 2, 2024 (+32 days)May 2, 2024 10-Q (+32 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Feb 22, 2024 (+53 days)Feb 23, 2024 10-K (+54 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Vaccines

    Spikevax / mNEXSPIKE

    COVID vaccines; mNEXSPIKE is the leading product in the U.S. retail channel.

  • Vaccines

    mRESVIA

    RSV vaccine.

  • Pipeline

    Investigational mRNA medicines

    Pipeline programs including flu (mRNA-1010), combination vaccines (mCOMBRIAX), CMV, oncology and rare diseases.

From the Form 10-K, FY2025.

U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services

Moderna does not state a market share percentage; it says mNEXSPIKE is its leading product in the U.S. retail channel.

Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. Convertible notes

    Completed a $3.0B offering of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2032 on September 1, 2026.

    Source: Form 8-K (2026-09-01) — Items 1.01, 2.03 (convertible notes)

  2. Arbutus/Genevant settlement

    March 3, 2026 settlement resolving all worldwide litigation; $950M accrued and paid in July 2026, with up to $1.3B more depending on an appeal.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

  3. New COO

    Juan Andres appointed Chief Operating Officer effective October 5, 2026.

    Source: Form 8-K (2026-09-30) — Item 5.02

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

0.91x

Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$192M ÷ $211M = 0.91x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

R&D-to-revenue ratio (FY2025)

161.1%

formularesearch & development expense ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$3,132M ÷ $1,944M × 100 = 161.1%

termsResearch & development (R&D) · Revenue (net sales)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$85M

Latest year: $0

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $68M in FY2020 to $192M in FY2025

  • Capex
  • R&D
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$1.94B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+19.3%▲favorable

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($1,944M ÷ $803M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 19.3%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

-158.1%▼caution

-63.1pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$-3,074M ÷ $1,944M × 100 = -158.1%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

-28.9%▼caution

6-year average: 13.5%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

1.34x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$29.49 ÷ $21.95 = 1.34x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

—

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▲

    Revenue grew +19.3% a year over 5 years (strong growth)

    From $803M in FY2020 to $1.94B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ▼

    Operating margin declined: -95.0% → -158.1%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved -63.1 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ▲

    Equity ratio is 70.1% (a high level of financial stability)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▼

    Free cash flow was positive in 3 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 13.5% over 6 years (latest: -28.9%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Uses its mRNA platform to design vaccines and medicines, manufactures them, and sells them to governments, distributors, pharmacies and health systems, while funding a large R&D pipeline.

How money and goods flow at Moderna
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • About 4,700 full-time employees in 18 countries
    • mRNA platform and manufacturing
    • Cash and investments plus debt financing
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Research and development of mRNA medicines
    • Manufacturing and commercialization of COVID and RSV vaccines
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Governments and health agencies
    • Distributors (e.g. FFF Enterprises, Cardinal Health) and retail pharmacies
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • COVID vaccines $1,810M (2025 net product sales)
    • RSV vaccine $8M
    • Total revenue $1,944M

How the business makes money

  • FFF Enterprises 15%, Public Works and Government Services Canada 13% and Cardinal Health 11% of 2025 revenue.
  • U.S. net product sales $1,165M; Europe $50M; rest of world $603M in 2025.
  • R&D expense fell from $4,543M (2024) to $3,132M (2025).

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Moderna’s revenue depends on FDA licensure and on U.S. pricing policy.

  • Approvals & licenses

    FDA approval and compliance

    Products need FDA approval, and noncompliance can bring warning letters, recalls or loss of approval.

    Supports and constrainsTouches: Activities

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Regulated prices & reimbursement

    Reference and MFN pricing

    Efforts to impose reference or most-favored-nation pricing could cut product revenue.

    Constrains the businessTouches: How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • COVID vaccines

    1,810 (93%)
  • RSV vaccine

    8 (0%)
  • Other revenue

    126 (6%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Net product sales by product plus other revenue (derived); single reportable segment; total $1,944M.

10

Where it earnsSite analysis

Many U.S.-listed companies earn most of their revenue outside the U.S. — this breaks down revenue by country/region so it's clear where the business actually makes its money.

Largest market (FY2025)

United States — 64% of revenue

Revenue by country / region (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • United States

    1,165 (64%)
  • Europe

    50 (3%)
  • Rest of world

    603 (33%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Net product sales by customer location ($1,818M).

11

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

12

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Governments, distributors and pharmacies.

Named by the company

Suppliers

Raw material and contract manufacturing suppliers.

Named by the company

No material supplier is named.

13

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

Moderna faces competition from other mRNA developers and larger pharmaceutical companies.

Competitors named in the 10-K

Peer group the company chose

Compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

2025–2026 compensation peer group from the 2026 proxy statement.

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

14

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Line itemFY2020In next year’s 10-KFY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue80318,47119,2636,8483,2361,944
Operating income-76313,2969,420-4,239-3,945-3,074
Pretax income-74413,2859,575-3,942-3,607-2,768
Net income (attributable)-74712,2028,362-4,714-3,561-2,822
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—2200.2%4.3%-64.4%-52.7%-39.9%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 100-95.0%72.0%48.9%-61.9%-121.9%-158.1%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100-93.0%66.1%43.4%-68.8%-110.0%-145.2%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets7,33724,66925,85818,42614,14212,338
Total equity2,56114,14519,12313,85410,9018,650
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable00000590
Equity ratio34.9%57.3%74.0%75.2%77.1%70.1%
ROE-29.2%146.1%50.3%-28.6%-28.8%-28.9%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF2,02713,6204,981-3,118-3,004-1,873
Investing CF-1,672-8,523-5,1764,2061,9491,946
Financing CF2,033-873-3,448-1,37756593
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures1,95913,3364,581-3,825-4,055-2,065
Cash and equivalents2,6246,8483,2052,9071,9272,595
Per share & other
EPS ($)-1.9628.2920.12-12.33-9.28-7.26
BVPS ($)6.4235.1049.6736.2728.2421.95
P/E (x)—9.08.9———
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)—7.16.8———
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share16.287.243.622.741.471.34

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-06-30$145M+2.1%−$815M−$782M$-1.97
2026-03-31$389M+260.2%−$1.39B−$1.34B$-3.40
2025-12-31 †$678M-29.8%−$857M−$826M—
2025-09-30$1.02B-45.4%−$260M−$200M-1638.5%$-0.51
2025-06-30$142M−$907M−$825M$-2.13
2025-03-31$108M−$1.05B−$971M$-2.52
2024-12-31 †$966M−$1.25B−$1.12B—
2024-09-30$1.86B−$70M$13M$0.03

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

15

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

-27.5%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$-3,074M × (1 − 10%) ÷ $10,071M × 100 = -27.5%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

9.90%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $11.62B ÷ ($11.62B + $590M) = 95.2%

e.g.Debt weight: $590M ÷ ($11.62B + $590M) = 4.8%

e.g.WACC: 10.2% × 95.2% + 5.0% × (1 − 10%) × 4.8% = 9.90%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

-37.4pt▼caution

Falling short of the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in only 2 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 8.1%–12.0% and ROIC − WACC runs −39.5 to −35.6 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 9.90% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
0.95 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.01), so reliability is limited)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
10.18%
Cost of debt
4.95% (no debt on record, using the risk-free rate)
Tax rate
10% (effective rate, FY2021–FY2022)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
95% : 5%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 9.90%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 0.95 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.93, R² 0.01, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 0.925 + 0.33 = 0.950

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity10.18%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 0.95 × 5.5% = 10.2%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$11.62B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$590M
Cost of debt *no debt on record, using the risk-free rate instead4.95%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)95% : 5%

16

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Not enough data for this calculation (FY2025): it needs positive free cash flow, a fiscal year-end P/E, and a positive enterprise value.

17

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • !

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 0.86x

    Cash coming in trails reported profit. Worth checking for rising receivables/inventory or one-off gains.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -7.2%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 632 → 51 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding
  • Days inventory outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($358M + $184M) ÷ 2 ÷ $1,944M × 365 = 51 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

e.g.($117M + $153M) ÷ 2 ÷ $868M × 365 = 57 days

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

18

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
79.9%
Directors & officers (shares)
10.8%
Everyone else (est.)
9.3%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
10.8%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
305 of 416

1 = most institutional; 73% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.95

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 318.8M shares reported by 781 13F filers ÷ 399.2M shares outstanding on 2026-07-24. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-03-16 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-24)

19

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. mRNA platform

    A pioneer and leader in mRNA medicine with approved COVID and RSV vaccines.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Patent overhang reduced

    The Arbutus/Genevant settlement resolves all worldwide litigation for Spikevax and mRESVIA with no future royalties.

    Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

  3. 3. Cost reduction

    Total operating expenses fell 30% in 2025 to $5,018M.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Collapsing revenue

    Revenue fell from $19,263M (2022) to $1,944M (2025).

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Ongoing losses

    Net losses every year from 2023 to 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Regulatory setback

    FDA issued a Refusal-to-File letter for the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine in February 2026.

    Evidence: Form 8-K (2026-02-11) — Item 8.01

20

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

—

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

—

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

—

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

-17.8%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Pipeline optionality

    mRNA platform spans infectious disease, oncology and rare disease.

    What has to hold
    Pipeline approvals arrive.
    The other side
    Regulatory setbacks.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Cost reset

    Spending cut sharply.

    What has to hold
    Revenue stabilizes.
    The other side
    Losses continue.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

2021–2022 revenue reflects pandemic COVID vaccine demand.

21

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

—

$5.8B vs. —

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

Not disclosed

Interest expense isn’t reported as a separate line.

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

—

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-64.4% in FY2023 ($19.26B → $6.85B)Not yet, as of FY2025
Operating income-145.0% in FY2023 ($9.42B → −$4.24B)Not yet, as of FY2025

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Balance sheet cushion

    Ended 2025 with $8.65B of equity and $2.6B of cash and equivalents despite losses.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

23

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
123
Med
45
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Demand & macro

    Vaccine demand

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    COVID and RSV vaccine demand is seasonal and declining.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  2. 2Competition & technology shift

    Competition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competes with Pfizer and Sanofi in COVID vaccines and Pfizer and GSK in RSV.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  3. 3Law & regulation

    FDA and vaccine policy

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Regulatory decisions and vaccine recommendations affect approvals and uptake.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  4. 4Law & regulation

    Patent litigation

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Suits by BioNTech, CureVac, Sanofi subsidiaries, Northwestern and others; an appeal could require up to $1.3B more to Arbutus/Genevant.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  5. 5Funding & liquidity

    Cash burn

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Operating cash outflows and new debt obligations.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    In November 2025, we entered into a Credit Agreement providing for a term loan facility with aggregate commitments of $1.5 billion.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High

24

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (8)

  • Regulatory and market uncertainty have and may continue to impact our business and the markets for our products.

  • Our ability to successfully commercialize our approved vaccines and any future products depends in part on evolving regulatory requirements, public health recommendations and market acceptance. Read more

    In 2025, changes at U.S. regulatory agencies impacted policies and priorities related to our industry. For example, changes in FDA regulatory policies, post-marketing safety monitoring, and evidentiary expectations, as well as CDC and Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations regarding eligibility, target populations, and vaccination practices, may have affected and may continue to affect demand for our vaccines. Some of these changes, including new post-marketing commitments, have impacted and may in the future impact our costs. Ongoing regulatory uncertainty and evolving regulatory and public health guidance could impact future approvals, advisory committee…

  • We may experience difficulties executing our near-term strategy and prioritized pipeline.

  • Federal legislative and regulatory efforts to implement reference pricing or most-favored-nation pricing models and other, similar regulatory actions could impact our product revenues and materially harm our business.

  • On May 12, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order calling on pharmaceutical manufacturers to voluntarily reduce the prices of medicines in the U.S. Read more

    and directing the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) to communicate price targets to pharmaceutical manufacturers to align prices with those in comparably developed nations, an approach commonly referred to as "most-favored-nation" (MFN) pricing and, in the event significant progress towards MFN pricing is not delivered, to propose rulemaking to impose MFN pricing.

  • MFN pricing models in the U.S. could also affect our international pricing strategy and future decisions on reimbursement and commercialization in certain jurisdictions. Read more

    If our U.S. pricing becomes tied to international reference prices, we may face decisions regarding pricing in foreign markets that could result in reduced patient access internationally, affect our relationships with foreign regulatory authorities and payers, or impact our ability to obtain or maintain reimbursement approvals in ex-U.S. markets.

  • These reforms remain subject to change, potential legal challenges, or expansion through additional rulemaking or sub‑regulatory guidance, creating uncertainty for our overall pricing strategy. Read more

    It remains to be seen whether and how these drug pricing initiatives will apply to our products, how they will affect the broader pharmaceutical industry, and whether similar reform measures may be adopted in the future.

  • For example, recent FDA policy updates regarding COVID vaccine approvals and the evidence expected for certain populations could require additional clinical data or trials to support broader indications, delay approvals or supplemental applications, or result in more limited labeled populations, which could adversely affect the timing and scope of commercialization for our COVID vaccines, including updated or variant-adapted formulations.

No longer in the text (4)

  • Uncertainty and evolving dynamics in the markets for COVID and RSV vaccines, and respiratory vaccines more generally, have in the past impacted and are likely to continue to impact our financial results.

  • There is significant uncertainty around the amount of future revenue we will recognize from sales of our COVID vaccine—which is our primary source of revenue—as well as sales of RSV and other respiratory vaccines. Read more

    Accurately forecasting vaccination rates for our products, which directly impacts overall market size, has been difficult, and these difficulties may persist. Vaccination rates in the future may also be lower than our expectations, and are likely to be impacted by a number of factors, including public health authority recommendations, medical need, viral evolution and consumer motivation to vaccinate. Additionally, the recent Presidential election in the U.S. may impact policies and priorities related to our industry.

  • In 2024, we recognized $3.1 billion of product sales, compared to $6.7 billion, $18.4 billion and $17.7 billion in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Read more

    If demand for COVID vaccines continues to decline, we lose significant market share, or our products are subject to significant competitive pricing pressure, our product sales may not materialize consistent with our projections. Beyond COVID vaccines , in 2024, the overall RSV vaccine market was smaller than anticipated, in part due to recommendations from the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) regarding the frequency of vaccination and recommendations related to who, in terms of age or risk factors, should receive an RSV vaccine. These recommendations were more limited than anticipated and future advisory committee recommendations (including with respect to RSV re-vaccination and age group recommendations) may…

  • We may be unsuccessful in executing our cost efficiency and portfolio prioritization efforts.

38 more paragraphs differ; the filings below have the full text.

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 21, 2025 ↗.

25

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • Approval and launch of new vaccines (flu, combination).
  • Federal Circuit appeal in the Arbutus/Genevant matter (up to $1.3B).
  • Cash runway after the convertible notes.

26

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:52 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 20, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-20Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Moderna’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.