NASDAQ: MRNA · Biotechnology
Moderna
Moderna, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a pioneer of mRNA medicines. Its commercial products are COVID vaccines (Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, launched in the third quarter of 2025) and the RSV vaccine mRESVIA, and it is developing vaccines and therapeutics for infectious diseases, cancer and rare diseases. Revenue soared to $18,471 million in 2021 and $19,263 million in 2022 on pandemic COVID vaccine sales, then fell to $1,944 million in 2025 as demand faded; net losses were $4,714 million (2023), $3,561 million (2024) and $2,822 million (2025). Moderna has been cutting costs and raising capital — a $1.5 billion Ares-led term loan facility (November 2025) and $3.0 billion of 0% convertible notes (September 2026) — and in March 2026 settled the Arbutus/Genevant patent litigation, recording $876 million in cost of sales. The FDA refused to file its flu vaccine application in February 2026.
Last updated
Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:52 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 20, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2010-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-11-06Proxy statement (2026)
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
01
At a glanceFrom SEC data
Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.
- Revenue growthCAGRSmooths out year-to-year swings into "grew X% a year on average." Makes growth pace comparable across companies of very different sizes.
- 19.3%
- Operating marginOperating marginHow many cents of operating profit are left per dollar of revenue. Reflects pricing power and cost structure.
- -158.1%
- ROIC minus WACCROIC − WACC spreadThe difference between ROIC and WACC. Consistently positive implies value creation; consistently negative implies value destruction.
- -37.4 pts
- Net debt ÷ EBITDAEBITDAOperating income with D&A added back. A rough proxy for cash-generating power that’s less distorted by capital intensity, depreciation method, or financing/tax differences than net income.
- —
- Cash conversionOperating CF ÷ net income (cash conversion)How much of reported profit shows up as actual cash. 1x or higher means profit is backed by cash.
- —
- Dividend raisesDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year).
- —
- P/E todayP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing.
- —
- Betaβ (beta)How much a stock moves, on average, for a 1% move in the overall market. Above 1 means more volatile than the market, which raises the return shareholders require. This site computes it from about 2.5 years (roughly 130 weeks) of weekly returns, built from Yahoo Finance daily prices, regressed against an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy, then applies the well-known long-run mean-reversion adjustment (0.67 × β + 0.33) as the WACC default.
- 0.95
Higher than 86% of 372 non-financial companies
Average yearly growth over the years shown
Higher than 0% of 311 non-financial companies
Latest fiscal year (FY2025)
Higher than 0% of 311 non-financial companies
Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost
Below 0 means more cash than debt
Operating cash flow ÷ net income
Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5
Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-06-30
Above 1 = moves more than the market
Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.
02
Valuation todayFrom SEC data
Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.
Share price$249.96close on 2026-11-04
Market cap$98.48B
- P/EP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing. today
- —
- P/BP/BShare price ÷ book value per share. Below 1x means the market values the company below its accounting net worth. This site uses the closing price nearest the fiscal year-end and highlights sub-1x readings. today
- 11.4x
- EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDAEnterprise value (≈ market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash) as a multiple of EBITDA — roughly, "how many years of EBITDA to buy the whole company." Lower is generally viewed as cheaper, and it’s more comparable than P/E across companies with different debt loads or depreciation policies. This site excludes noncontrolling interests from the EV calculation. today
- —
- FCF yieldFree cash flow (FCF)Operating CF minus capital expenditures — cash generated by the business after funding its own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. Acquisitions and securities purchases (also in investing CF) are not subtracted, so FCF can be positive in a year when total investing CF exceeds operating CF. today
- -2.1%
- Dividend yieldDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year). today
- —
At FY2025 year-end: —
Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-06-30
At FY2025 year-end: 1.3x
Book value at FY2025 year-end
At FY2025 year-end: —
EBITDA for FY2025
At FY2025 year-end: -17.8%
Free cash flow for FY2025
Dividends per share for FY2025
“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
03
What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data
The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026.
These figures are behind: a newer quarter was reported on Nov 6, 2026, but SEC's structured data doesn't include it yet. Read the release ↗
- Revenue$142M → $145M (vs. a year earlier)↑ +2.1%$142M → $145M (vs. a year earlier)
- Operating margin-638.7% → -562.1% (vs. a year earlier)↑ +76.7 pts-638.7% → -562.1% (vs. a year earlier)
- Net income−$825M → −$782M (vs. a year earlier)↑ −$782M−$825M → −$782M (vs. a year earlier)
- Diluted EPS$-2.13 → $-1.97 (vs. a year earlier)↑ $-1.97$-2.13 → $-1.97 (vs. a year earlier)
- Cash$1.91B → $1.72B (vs. previous quarter-end)↓ −9.7%$1.91B → $1.72B (vs. previous quarter-end)
- Long-term debt$590M → $591M (vs. previous quarter-end)→ +0.2%$590M → $591M (vs. previous quarter-end)
Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.
From the earnings release of Jul 31, 2026.
Management outlook • Issued
Targets up to 10% revenue growth from 2025. Source sentence
Revenue: The Company is targeting up to 10% growth from 2025 revenue and expects 2026 revenue split to be approximately 50% U.S. and approximately 50% international.
Key changes
Paid $950M in July for the litigation settlement. Source sentence
The Company subsequently paid $950 million in July 2026 related to the litigation settlement announced in the first quarter of 2026.
Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗
04
Company profileFrom SEC dataShow
- Legal name
- Moderna, Inc.
- Headquarters
- CAMBRIDGE, MA
- Incorporated in
- Delaware
- Fiscal year end
- 12/31
- Exchange & ticker
- NASDAQ: MRNA
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- CIK
- 1682852
- Website
- https://www.modernatx.com/ ↗
Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)
Employees
4,700
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description
05
Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow
When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.
Next report
Q4 FY2026
Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 44–53 days after quarter end (Feb 13, 2026; Feb 14, 2025; Feb 22, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.
Reporting pattern
- Fiscal year ends around December 31.
- Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
- Earnings releases came 31–53 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
| Quarter | Quarter ended | Earnings release (8-K) | Report filed (10-Q / 10-K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Nov 6, 2026 (+37 days) | Nov 6, 2026 10-Q (+37 days) |
| Q2 FY2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Jul 31, 2026 (+31 days) | Jul 31, 2026 10-Q (+31 days) |
| Q1 FY2026 | Mar 31, 2026 | May 1, 2026 (+31 days) | May 1, 2026 10-Q (+31 days) |
| Q4 FY2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | Feb 13, 2026 (+44 days) | Feb 20, 2026 10-K (+51 days) |
| Q3 FY2025 | Sep 30, 2025 | Nov 6, 2025 (+37 days) | Nov 6, 2025 10-Q (+37 days) |
| Q2 FY2025 | Jun 30, 2025 | Aug 1, 2025 (+32 days) | Aug 1, 2025 10-Q (+32 days) |
| Q1 FY2025 | Mar 31, 2025 | May 1, 2025 (+31 days) | May 1, 2025 10-Q (+31 days) |
| Q4 FY2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Feb 14, 2025 (+45 days) | Feb 21, 2025 10-K (+52 days) |
| Q3 FY2024 | Sep 30, 2024 | Nov 7, 2024 (+38 days) | Nov 7, 2024 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q2 FY2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Aug 1, 2024 (+32 days) | Aug 1, 2024 10-Q (+32 days) |
| Q1 FY2024 | Mar 31, 2024 | May 2, 2024 (+32 days) | May 2, 2024 10-Q (+32 days) |
| Q4 FY2023 | Dec 31, 2023 | Feb 22, 2024 (+53 days) | Feb 23, 2024 10-K (+54 days) |
Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.
06
Flagship products & servicesSite analysis
Vaccines
Spikevax / mNEXSPIKE
COVID vaccines; mNEXSPIKE is the leading product in the U.S. retail channel.
Vaccines
mRESVIA
RSV vaccine.
Pipeline
Investigational mRNA medicines
Pipeline programs including flu (mRNA-1010), combination vaccines (mCOMBRIAX), CMV, oncology and rare diseases.
From the Form 10-K, FY2025.
U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services
Moderna does not state a market share percentage; it says mNEXSPIKE is its leading product in the U.S. retail channel.
Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
07
Recent strategic focusSite analysis
Recent developments.
Convertible notes
Completed a $3.0B offering of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2032 on September 1, 2026.
Source: Form 8-K (2026-09-01) — Items 1.01, 2.03 (convertible notes)
Arbutus/Genevant settlement
March 3, 2026 settlement resolving all worldwide litigation; $950M accrued and paid in July 2026, with up to $1.3B more depending on an appeal.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
New COO
Juan Andres appointed Chief Operating Officer effective October 5, 2026.
Source: Form 8-K (2026-09-30) — Item 5.02
Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)
0.91x
Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
e.g.$192M ÷ $211M = 0.91x
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
R&D-to-revenue ratio (FY2025)
161.1%
formularesearch & development expense ÷ revenue × 100
e.g.$3,132M ÷ $1,944M × 100 = 161.1%
M&A spend (6-year total)
$85M
Latest year: $0
Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired
Where the money goes, over time
Unit: $M. Capex went from $68M in FY2020 to $192M in FY2025
- Capex
- R&D
- M&A spend
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20
08
Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data
FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.
Revenue (FY2025)
$1.94B
As reported in the 10-K
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
+19.3%▲favorable
formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1
e.g.($1,944M ÷ $803M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 19.3%
termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)
Operating margin (FY2025)
-158.1%▼caution
-63.1pt vs. 5 years ago
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
e.g.$-3,074M ÷ $1,944M × 100 = -158.1%
ROE (FY2025)
-28.9%▼caution
6-year average: 13.5%
As reported in the 10-K
P/B (FY2025 end)
1.34x
formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share
e.g.$29.49 ÷ $21.95 = 1.34x
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B
EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)
—
formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)
termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple
- ▲
Revenue grew +19.3% a year over 5 years (strong growth)
From $803M in FY2020 to $1.94B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.
- ▼
Operating margin declined: -95.0% → -158.1%
How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved -63.1 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.
- ▲
Equity ratio is 70.1% (a high level of financial stability)
The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).
- ▼
Free cash flow was positive in 3 of 6 years
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.
- ▲
ROE averaged 13.5% over 6 years (latest: -28.9%)
How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.
09
Business modelSite analysis
Business Model Canvas
The whole company in nine blocks. Left side: how it delivers (partners, activities, resources, costs). Right side: who it serves and how it earns. Every entry comes from the company’s filings shown on this page.
08 · who helps
Key partners
No partners or suppliers named in the filings.
07 · what it does
Key activities
- Research and development of mRNA medicines
- Manufacturing and commercialization of COVID and RSV vaccines
06 · what it draws on
Key resources
- About 4,700 full-time employees in 18 countries
- mRNA platform and manufacturing
- Cash and investments plus debt financing
02 · why customers buy
Value propositions
- mRNA vaccines and medicines from its platform, discovery and manufacturing capabilities.
04 · how it keeps them
Customer relationships
- Long-term strategic partnerships with government entities, in countries with local manufacturing facilities.
03 · how it reaches them
Channels
- Commercial subsidiaries in key markets; distributors and alliances elsewhere; governments.
01 · who it serves
Customer segments
- Governments and health agencies
- Distributors (e.g. FFF Enterprises, Cardinal Health) and retail pharmacies
09 · where money goes
Cost structure
FY2025, share of revenue ($1.94B)
- Cost of revenue44.7%
- Research & development161.1%
- Selling, general & administrative52.4%
Revenue here is reported net of interest expense, so these lines overlap and add up to more than 100%.
Operating profit left: -158.1% of revenue. Depreciation & amortization (inside the costs above): $211M. Capital spending: $192M.
Source: Form 10-K income statement and cash-flow statement (SEC XBRL).
05 · how money comes in
Revenue streams
- COVID vaccines $1,810M (2025 net product sales)
- RSV vaccine $8M
- Total revenue $1,944M
Value propositions, channels and customer relationships: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Uses its mRNA platform to design vaccines and medicines, manufactures them, and sells them to governments, distributors, pharmacies and health systems, while funding a large R&D pipeline.
01 what it draws on
Inputs & resources
- About 4,700 full-time employees in 18 countries
- mRNA platform and manufacturing
- Cash and investments plus debt financing
02 what it does
Activities
- Research and development of mRNA medicines
- Manufacturing and commercialization of COVID and RSV vaccines
03 who it serves
Customers
- Governments and health agencies
- Distributors (e.g. FFF Enterprises, Cardinal Health) and retail pharmacies
04 how money comes in
How it earns
- COVID vaccines $1,810M (2025 net product sales)
- RSV vaccine $8M
- Total revenue $1,944M
How the business makes money
- FFF Enterprises 15%, Public Works and Government Services Canada 13% and Cardinal Health 11% of 2025 revenue.
- U.S. net product sales $1,165M; Europe $50M; rest of world $603M in 2025.
- R&D expense fell from $4,543M (2024) to $3,132M (2025).
Government & regulation around the business
Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.
Moderna’s revenue depends on FDA licensure and on U.S. pricing policy.
Approvals & licenses
FDA approval and compliance
Products need FDA approval, and noncompliance can bring warning letters, recalls or loss of approval.
Supports and constrainsTouches: ActivitiesSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Regulated prices & reimbursement
Reference and MFN pricing
Efforts to impose reference or most-favored-nation pricing could cut product revenue.
Constrains the businessTouches: How it earnsSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Revenue by segment (FY2025)
Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue
COVID vaccines
1,810 (93%)RSV vaccine
8 (0%)Other revenue
126 (6%)
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Net product sales by product plus other revenue (derived); single reportable segment; total $1,944M.
10
Where it earnsSite analysis
Many U.S.-listed companies earn most of their revenue outside the U.S. — this breaks down revenue by country/region so it's clear where the business actually makes its money.
Largest market (FY2025)
United States — 64% of revenue
Revenue by country / region (FY2025)
Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue
United States
1,165 (64%)Europe
50 (3%)Rest of world
603 (33%)
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Net product sales by customer location ($1,818M).
11
Contract structureSite analysisShow
Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.
12
Customers & suppliersSite analysis
Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.
Customers
Governments, distributors and pharmacies.
Named by the company
- FFF Enterprises — 15% of 2025 revenue.Form 10-K (FY2025)
- Public Works and Government Services Canada — 13% of 2025 revenue.Form 10-K (FY2025)
- Cardinal Health — 11% of 2025 revenue.Form 10-K (FY2025)
Suppliers
Raw material and contract manufacturing suppliers.
Named by the company
No material supplier is named.
13
Competitors & peersSite analysis
Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.
Moderna faces competition from other mRNA developers and larger pharmaceutical companies.
Competitors named in the 10-K
Peer group the company chose
Compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.
2025–2026 compensation peer group from the 2026 proxy statement.
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticalssite ↗
- BeOne Medicinessite ↗
- Biogensite ↗
- BioMarin Pharmaceuticalsite ↗
- Exelixissite ↗
- Incytesite ↗
- Ionis Pharmaceuticalssite ↗
- Jazz Pharmaceuticalssite ↗
- Neurocrine Biosciencessite ↗
- PTC Therapeuticssite ↗
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticalssite ↗
- Sarepta Therapeuticssite ↗
- Ultragenyxsite ↗
- United Therapeuticssite ↗
- Vertex Pharmaceuticalssite ↗
Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.
14
Six years of financialsFrom SEC data
Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.
Revenue over time
Unit: $M
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20
Profit over time (operating → net)
Unit: $M
- Operating income
- Pretax income
- Net income
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20
Margins over time
Unit: %
- Operating margin
- Net margin
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100
Cash flow over time
Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)
- Operating CF
- Investing CF
- Free CF
formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures
termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20
Financial stability & capital efficiency
Unit: %
- Equity ratio
- ROE
formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets
formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity
Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share
Unit: $
- EPS
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20
| Line item | FY2020In next year’s 10-K | FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement ($M) | ||||||
| Revenue | 803 | 18,471 | 19,263 | 6,848 | 3,236 | 1,944 |
| Operating income | -763 | 13,296 | 9,420 | -4,239 | -3,945 | -3,074 |
| Pretax income | -744 | 13,285 | 9,575 | -3,942 | -3,607 | -2,768 |
| Net income (attributable) | -747 | 12,202 | 8,362 | -4,714 | -3,561 | -2,822 |
| Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100 | — | 2200.2% | 4.3% | -64.4% | -52.7% | -39.9% |
| Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 100 | -95.0% | 72.0% | 48.9% | -61.9% | -121.9% | -158.1% |
| Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100 | -93.0% | 66.1% | 43.4% | -68.8% | -110.0% | -145.2% |
| Balance sheet ($M) | ||||||
| Total assets | 7,337 | 24,669 | 25,858 | 18,426 | 14,142 | 12,338 |
| Total equity | 2,561 | 14,145 | 19,123 | 13,854 | 10,901 | 8,650 |
| Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 590 |
| Equity ratio | 34.9% | 57.3% | 74.0% | 75.2% | 77.1% | 70.1% |
| ROE | -29.2% | 146.1% | 50.3% | -28.6% | -28.8% | -28.9% |
| Cash flow ($M) | ||||||
| Operating CF | 2,027 | 13,620 | 4,981 | -3,118 | -3,004 | -1,873 |
| Investing CF | -1,672 | -8,523 | -5,176 | 4,206 | 1,949 | 1,946 |
| Financing CF | 2,033 | -873 | -3,448 | -1,377 | 56 | 593 |
| Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures | 1,959 | 13,336 | 4,581 | -3,825 | -4,055 | -2,065 |
| Cash and equivalents | 2,624 | 6,848 | 3,205 | 2,907 | 1,927 | 2,595 |
| Per share & other | ||||||
| EPS ($) | -1.96 | 28.29 | 20.12 | -12.33 | -9.28 | -7.26 |
| BVPS ($) | 6.42 | 35.10 | 49.67 | 36.27 | 28.24 | 21.95 |
| P/E (x) | — | 9.0 | 8.9 | — | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization) | — | 7.1 | 6.8 | — | — | — |
| P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share | 16.28 | 7.24 | 3.62 | 2.74 | 1.47 | 1.34 |
P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.
Last 8 quarters
Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Operating income | Net income | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $145M+2.1% | −$815M | −$782M | $-1.97 |
| 2026-03-31 | $389M+260.2% | −$1.39B | −$1.34B | $-3.40 |
| 2025-12-31 † | $678M-29.8% | −$857M | −$826M | — |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.02B-45.4% | −$260M | −$200M-1638.5% | $-0.51 |
| 2025-06-30 | $142M | −$907M | −$825M | $-2.13 |
| 2025-03-31 | $108M | −$1.05B | −$971M | $-2.52 |
| 2024-12-31 † | $966M | −$1.25B | −$1.12B | — |
| 2024-09-30 | $1.86B | −$70M | $13M | $0.03 |
† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.
15
Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data
ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.
ROIC (FY2025)
-27.5%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
e.g.$-3,074M × (1 − 10%) ÷ $10,071M × 100 = -27.5%
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
WACC (this site’s estimate)
9.90%
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
e.g.Equity weight: $11.62B ÷ ($11.62B + $590M) = 95.2%
e.g.Debt weight: $590M ÷ ($11.62B + $590M) = 4.8%
e.g.WACC: 10.2% × 95.2% + 5.0% × (1 − 10%) × 4.8% = 9.90%
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 8.1%–12.0% and ROIC − WACC runs −39.5 to −35.6 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.
WACC 9.90% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
- β
- 0.95 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.01), so reliability is limited)
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Cost of equity
- 10.18%
- Cost of debt
- 4.95% (no debt on record, using the risk-free rate)
- Tax rate
- 10% (effective rate, FY2021–FY2022)
- Capital structure (equity : debt)
- 95% : 5%
ROIC over time, vs. WACC
Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red
- ROIC (above WACC)
- ROIC (below WACC)
- WACC 9.90%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
Try different WACC assumptions
β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).
Initial β: 0.95 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.93, R² 0.01, 130 weeks)
formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)
e.g.0.67 × 0.925 + 0.33 = 0.950
termsβ (beta)
Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.
formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium
e.g.5.0% + 0.95 × 5.5% = 10.2%
termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)
formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)
formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)
16
What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data
A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.
Not enough data for this calculation (FY2025): it needs positive free cash flow, a fiscal year-end P/E, and a positive enterprise value.
17
Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow
The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.
- !
Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 0.86x
Cash coming in trails reported profit. Worth checking for rising receivables/inventory or one-off gains.
- ✓
Accrual ratio (latest): -7.2%
A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.
- ✓
Days sales outstanding: 632 → 51 days
No major slowdown in collecting on sales.
Operating CF vs. net income
Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash
- Operating CF
- Net income
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20
Profit bridge (FY2025)
Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income
- Profit (each stage)
- Pushed profit up
- Pushed profit down
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20
Receivables & inventory days
Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales
- Days sales outstanding
- Days inventory outstanding
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
Worked examples (latest period)
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
e.g.($358M + $184M) ÷ 2 ÷ $1,944M × 365 = 51 days
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
e.g.($117M + $153M) ÷ 2 ÷ $868M × 365 = 57 days
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
18
Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow
How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.
Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30
“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.
- Held by 13F filers
- 79.9%
- Directors & officers (shares)
- 10.8%
- Everyone else (est.)
- 9.3%
- Directors & officers (voting power)
- 10.8%
- Institutional-ownership rank
- 305 of 416
- Beta (adjusted)
- 0.95
individuals and other non-13F holders
no separate voting figure; shown as shares
1 = most institutional; 73% of covered companies have more
above 1 = swings more than the market
- 318.8M shares reported by 781 13F filers ÷ 399.2M shares outstanding on 2026-07-24. Option positions are excluded.
- Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
- A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.
Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-03-16 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-24)
19
Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis
Strengths
1. mRNA platform
A pioneer and leader in mRNA medicine with approved COVID and RSV vaccines.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Patent overhang reduced
The Arbutus/Genevant settlement resolves all worldwide litigation for Spikevax and mRESVIA with no future royalties.
Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
3. Cost reduction
Total operating expenses fell 30% in 2025 to $5,018M.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Weaknesses
1. Collapsing revenue
Revenue fell from $19,263M (2022) to $1,944M (2025).
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Ongoing losses
Net losses every year from 2023 to 2025.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
3. Regulatory setback
FDA issued a Refusal-to-File letter for the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine in February 2026.
Evidence: Form 8-K (2026-02-11) — Item 8.01
20
What draws investors to itSite analysis
Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
P/E (FY2025)
—
Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS
Dividend yield (FY2025)
—
Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price
Payout ratio (FY2025)
—
Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS
FCF yield (FY2025)
-17.8%
(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap
1. Pipeline optionality
mRNA platform spans infectious disease, oncology and rare disease.
- What has to hold
- Pipeline approvals arrive.
- The other side
- Regulatory setbacks.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Cost reset
Spending cut sharply.
- What has to hold
- Revenue stabilizes.
- The other side
- Losses continue.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2021–2022 revenue reflects pandemic COVID vaccine demand.
21
ResilienceSite analysisShow
How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.
1. Financial buffer (FY2025)
Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year
—
$5.8B vs. —
Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)
Not disclosed
Interest expense isn’t reported as a separate line.
Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid
—
2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery
| Figure | Worst year-over-year change | Back to the prior level? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -64.4% in FY2023 ($19.26B → $6.85B) | Not yet, as of FY2025 |
| Operating income | -145.0% in FY2023 ($9.42B → −$4.24B) | Not yet, as of FY2025 |
Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.
3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)
Balance sheet cushion
Ended 2025 with $8.65B of equity and $2.6B of cash and equivalents despite losses.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)
22
Legal & regulatory mattersSite analysisShow
Lawsuits, government investigations, enforcement actions and settlements the company discloses — where each stands, what is at stake, and what comes next. From the 10-K's Legal Proceedings and contingencies note, the latest 10-Q, and 8-Ks.
Moderna faces multiple patent suits over its mRNA vaccines and shareholder litigation.
2 open matters (1 flagged as major) · 1 settled or closed
Other mRNA patent suits
PendingPatent / IPMajorBioNTech, CureVac, Sanofi, others
Complaints by BioNTech, CureVac, Sanofi subsidiaries, Northwestern University, Bayer/Monsanto and mNG Bio assert patents against Moderna.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Commitments and Contingencies
Securities class action
PendingClass actionModerna and certain officers
Putative shareholder class action filed August 2024 in the District of Massachusetts.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Commitments and Contingencies
Arbutus/Genevant settlement
SettledPatent / IPArbutus Biopharma, Genevant Sciences
Settled all worldwide litigation on March 3, 2026; $950M paid in July 2026; Moderna appealed a §1498 ruling and could owe up to $1.3B more.
- Amounts
- $950M (+ up to $1.3B)
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Commitments and Contingencies
Company statement: Other proceedings are described as ordinary-course and not expected to be material.
Based on Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Commitments and Contingencies, reviewed 2026-10-30. Routine ordinary-course claims are not listed. “Major” is this site’s judgment of which matters could materially affect results.
23
Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis
Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.
Risk map
Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).
Likelihood →
"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"
The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.
Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.
- 1Demand & macro
Vaccine demand
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- COVID and RSV vaccine demand is seasonal and declining.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact High / Likelihood High
- 2Competition & technology shift
Competition
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Competes with Pfizer and Sanofi in COVID vaccines and Pfizer and GSK in RSV.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact High / Likelihood High
- 3Law & regulation
FDA and vaccine policy
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Regulatory decisions and vaccine recommendations affect approvals and uptake.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact High / Likelihood High
- 4Law & regulation
Patent litigation
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Suits by BioNTech, CureVac, Sanofi subsidiaries, Northwestern and others; an appeal could require up to $1.3B more to Arbutus/Genevant.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
- 5Funding & liquidity
Cash burn
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Operating cash outflows and new debt obligations.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- In November 2025, we entered into a Credit Agreement providing for a term loan facility with aggregate commitments of $1.5 billion.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
24
What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data
Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.
New or substantially reworded (8)
Regulatory and market uncertainty have and may continue to impact our business and the markets for our products.
Our ability to successfully commercialize our approved vaccines and any future products depends in part on evolving regulatory requirements, public health recommendations and market acceptance. Read more
In 2025, changes at U.S. regulatory agencies impacted policies and priorities related to our industry. For example, changes in FDA regulatory policies, post-marketing safety monitoring, and evidentiary expectations, as well as CDC and Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations regarding eligibility, target populations, and vaccination practices, may have affected and may continue to affect demand for our vaccines. Some of these changes, including new post-marketing commitments, have impacted and may in the future impact our costs. Ongoing regulatory uncertainty and evolving regulatory and public health guidance could impact future approvals, advisory committee…
We may experience difficulties executing our near-term strategy and prioritized pipeline.
Federal legislative and regulatory efforts to implement reference pricing or most-favored-nation pricing models and other, similar regulatory actions could impact our product revenues and materially harm our business.
On May 12, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order calling on pharmaceutical manufacturers to voluntarily reduce the prices of medicines in the U.S. Read more
and directing the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) to communicate price targets to pharmaceutical manufacturers to align prices with those in comparably developed nations, an approach commonly referred to as "most-favored-nation" (MFN) pricing and, in the event significant progress towards MFN pricing is not delivered, to propose rulemaking to impose MFN pricing.
MFN pricing models in the U.S. could also affect our international pricing strategy and future decisions on reimbursement and commercialization in certain jurisdictions. Read more
If our U.S. pricing becomes tied to international reference prices, we may face decisions regarding pricing in foreign markets that could result in reduced patient access internationally, affect our relationships with foreign regulatory authorities and payers, or impact our ability to obtain or maintain reimbursement approvals in ex-U.S. markets.
These reforms remain subject to change, potential legal challenges, or expansion through additional rulemaking or sub‑regulatory guidance, creating uncertainty for our overall pricing strategy. Read more
It remains to be seen whether and how these drug pricing initiatives will apply to our products, how they will affect the broader pharmaceutical industry, and whether similar reform measures may be adopted in the future.
For example, recent FDA policy updates regarding COVID vaccine approvals and the evidence expected for certain populations could require additional clinical data or trials to support broader indications, delay approvals or supplemental applications, or result in more limited labeled populations, which could adversely affect the timing and scope of commercialization for our COVID vaccines, including updated or variant-adapted formulations.
No longer in the text (4)
Uncertainty and evolving dynamics in the markets for COVID and RSV vaccines, and respiratory vaccines more generally, have in the past impacted and are likely to continue to impact our financial results.
There is significant uncertainty around the amount of future revenue we will recognize from sales of our COVID vaccine—which is our primary source of revenue—as well as sales of RSV and other respiratory vaccines. Read more
Accurately forecasting vaccination rates for our products, which directly impacts overall market size, has been difficult, and these difficulties may persist. Vaccination rates in the future may also be lower than our expectations, and are likely to be impacted by a number of factors, including public health authority recommendations, medical need, viral evolution and consumer motivation to vaccinate. Additionally, the recent Presidential election in the U.S. may impact policies and priorities related to our industry.
In 2024, we recognized $3.1 billion of product sales, compared to $6.7 billion, $18.4 billion and $17.7 billion in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Read more
If demand for COVID vaccines continues to decline, we lose significant market share, or our products are subject to significant competitive pricing pressure, our product sales may not materialize consistent with our projections. Beyond COVID vaccines , in 2024, the overall RSV vaccine market was smaller than anticipated, in part due to recommendations from the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) regarding the frequency of vaccination and recommendations related to who, in terms of age or risk factors, should receive an RSV vaccine. These recommendations were more limited than anticipated and future advisory committee recommendations (including with respect to RSV re-vaccination and age group recommendations) may…
We may be unsuccessful in executing our cost efficiency and portfolio prioritization efforts.
38 more paragraphs differ; the filings below have the full text.
Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 21, 2025 ↗.
25
What to watch going forwardSite analysis
- Approval and launch of new vaccines (flu, combination).
- Federal Circuit appeal in the Arbutus/Genevant matter (up to $1.3B).
- Cash runway after the convertible notes.
26
Source documentsShow
This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.
Other sources referenced in the analysis
Last updated
Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:52 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 20, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-20Proxy statement (2026)
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Moderna’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.