KabuDo

NYSE: ATO · Gas Utilities

Atmos Energy Corporation

Atmos Energy is a natural-gas-only distributor. It delivers gas to about 3.4 million customers in eight mainly Southern states, with Texas's Mid-Tex division (Dallas/Fort Worth) the largest, and runs one of Texas's largest intrastate pipelines (Atmos Pipeline–Texas). Rates are set by regulators to cover costs plus a return on investment, and gas costs are passed through to customers. Fiscal 2025 (ended September) revenue was $4.70 billion and net income $1.20 billion, while capital spending reached $3.56 billion, mostly on safety and reliability. For fiscal 2026 it guides EPS of $8.40–8.50, capital spending of about $4.2 billion, and a 14.9% higher dividend.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 10, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 17, 2026 10:06 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: November 14, 2025

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2025-11-1410-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) · filed 2026-08-05

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
10.8%

Higher than 66% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
33.2%

Higher than 86% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
+0.5 pts

Higher than 34% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.8x

Higher than 80% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
1.71x

Higher than 59% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
5 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
19.7x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-06-30

Beta
0.38

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$171.33close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$27.68B

P/E today
19.7x

At FY2025 year-end: 22.9x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-06-30

P/B today
2.0x

At FY2025 year-end: 2.0x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
15.9x

At FY2025 year-end: 15.8x

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
-5.5%

At FY2025 year-end: -5.5%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
2.0%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026.

These figures are behind: a newer quarter was reported on Nov 4, 2026, but SEC's structured data doesn't include it yet. Read the release ↗

  • Revenue↑ +4.8%$839M → $879M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↑ +6.4 pts30.1% → 36.4% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +30.2%$186M → $243M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +23.3%$1.16 → $1.43 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↑ +314.5%$126M → $521M (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Nov 4, 2026.

Management outlook • Issued

Expects fiscal 2027 EPS of $9.05–$9.25. Source sentence
Fiscal 2027 earnings per diluted share guidance expected to be in the range of $9.05 - $9.25 per diluted share.

Key changes

  • Expects fiscal 2027 capital spending of about $4.5B. Source sentence
    Fiscal 2027 capital expenditure guidance expe cted to be approximately $4.5 billion.
  • Annual dividend for fiscal 2027 of $4.36, up 9.0%. Source sentence
    The indicated annual dividend for fiscal 2027 is $4.36 , whi ch represents a 9.0% increase over fiscal 2026.

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
ATMOS ENERGY CORP
Headquarters
DALLAS, TX
Incorporated in
Texas
Fiscal year end
09/30
Exchange & ticker
NYSE: ATO
Industry
Gas Utilities
CIK
731802

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    5,487

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q1 FY2027

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q1 results were released 34–37 days after quarter end (Feb 3, 2026; Feb 4, 2025; Feb 6, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around September 30.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 34–39 days after quarter end over the last 13 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q4 FY2026—Nov 4, 2026Not yet filed
Q3 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Aug 5, 2026 (+36 days)Aug 5, 2026 10-Q (+36 days)
Q2 FY2026Mar 31, 2026May 6, 2026 (+36 days)May 6, 2026 10-Q (+36 days)
Q1 FY2026Dec 31, 2025Feb 3, 2026 (+34 days)Feb 3, 2026 10-Q (+34 days)
Q4 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Nov 5, 2025 (+36 days)Nov 14, 2025 10-K (+45 days)
Q3 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Aug 6, 2025 (+37 days)Aug 6, 2025 10-Q (+37 days)
Q2 FY2025Mar 31, 2025May 7, 2025 (+37 days)May 7, 2025 10-Q (+37 days)
Q1 FY2025Dec 31, 2024Feb 4, 2025 (+35 days)Feb 4, 2025 10-Q (+35 days)
Q4 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Nov 6, 2024 (+37 days)Nov 18, 2024 10-K (+49 days)
Q3 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Aug 7, 2024 (+38 days)Aug 7, 2024 10-Q (+38 days)
Q2 FY2024Mar 31, 2024May 8, 2024 (+38 days)May 8, 2024 10-Q (+38 days)
Q1 FY2024Dec 31, 2023Feb 6, 2024 (+37 days)Feb 6, 2024 10-Q (+37 days)
Q4 FY2023Sep 30, 2023Nov 8, 2023 (+39 days)Nov 14, 2023 10-K (+45 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Distribution

    Natural gas delivery

    Examples: Mid-Tex, Louisiana, West Texas, Mississippi, Kentucky/Mid-States, Colorado-Kansas divisions

    About 3.4 million customer meters.

  • Pipeline and Storage

    Intrastate transmission and storage

    Examples: Atmos Pipeline–Texas

    Five underground storage facilities in Texas.

From the FY2025 Form 10-K, Item 1.

U.S., worldwide and country/regional share of flagship products/services

Only shares the company itself states (in its filings or press releases, sometimes citing a research firm) are shown. Scope and timing vary by figure — treat these as approximate.

  • Intrastate natural gas pipeline (Atmos Pipeline–Texas)

    Texas, by miles of pipe

    U.S. share

    —

    Not disclosed

    Worldwide share

    —

    Not disclosed

    Texas

    One of the largest

    Company-disclosed

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Fiscal 2025 from the 10-K, and fiscal 2026 events from 8-Ks.

  1. Fiscal 2026 to date

    Nine-month EPS of $7.33 and net income of $1.2B; $3.1B of capital spending, over 85% for safety and reliability.

    Source: Q3 FY2026 earnings release

  2. Higher dividend

    Indicated fiscal 2026 dividend of $4.00 per share, up 14.9%.

    Source: Q3 FY2026 earnings release

  3. New notes

    $700M of 6.000% senior notes due 2036 priced October 6, 2026.

    Source: 8-K filed 2026-10-09

  4. Regulatory outcomes

    $355.0M of annualized regulatory outcomes implemented in fiscal 2026 to date.

    Source: Q3 FY2026 earnings release

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

4.85x

Well above depreciation — expansion-stage investment

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$3,561M ÷ $735M = 4.85x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $1.94B in FY2020 to $3.56B in FY2025

  • Capex

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2025-11-14

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$4.7B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+10.8%▲favorable

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($4,703M ÷ $2,821M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 10.8%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

33.2%▲favorable

+4.0pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$1,560M ÷ $4,703M × 100 = 33.2%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

9.3%▲favorable

6-year average: 9.0%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

2.03x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$170.75 ÷ $83.92 = 2.03x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

15.8x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($27,588M + $8,907M − $203M) ÷ ($1,560M + $735M) = 15.8x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▲

    Revenue grew +10.8% a year over 5 years (strong growth)

    From $2.82B in FY2020 to $4.7B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ▲

    Operating margin improved: 29.2% → 33.2%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +4.0 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ―

    Equity ratio is 48.0% (a middling level)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▼

    Free cash flow was positive in 1 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 9.0% over 6 years (latest: 9.3%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Distribution

Regulated natural gas distribution to residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers in eight states, under city franchises and state-approved rates.

Distribution: how money and goods flow
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • Gas bought from producers and marketers under firm contracts
    • 33 pipeline transportation companies
    • About 5,487 employees (company-wide)
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Distributing gas through local pipe networks
    • Replacing and modernizing pipe
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • About 3.4 million customers in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Colorado, and Kansas
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Regulated rates covering costs and a return on investment
    • Gas costs passed through dollar for dollar

Distribution: how it makes money

  • Revenue $4.43B and net income $747M in fiscal 2025.
  • Weather normalization covers about 97% of residential and commercial distribution revenue.

Pipeline and Storage

Atmos Pipeline–Texas (APT), one of the largest intrastate pipelines in Texas, with five underground storage facilities, plus a 21-mile pipeline in Louisiana.

Pipeline and Storage: how money and goods flow
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • Pipeline and storage network near the Barnett Shale, Gulf Coast, and Permian Basin
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Transporting and storing gas
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Atmos's Mid-Tex division
    • Other utilities, industrial and power generation customers, marketers, producers
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Rates set by the Railroad Commission of Texas, updated annually through GRIP

Pipeline and Storage: how it makes money

  • Revenue $1.07B (mostly from Atmos's own distribution division) and net income $452M in fiscal 2025.
  • APT's authorized return on equity is 11.45% on a $5.24B rate base.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Atmos Energy’s gas rates are regulated, with mechanisms that pass gas costs to customers; climate policy is a long-term risk.

  • Regulated prices & reimbursement

    Gas cost pass-through

    Purchased gas cost adjustment mechanisms recover gas costs dollar-for-dollar without a rate case.

    Supports the businessTouches: How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Environmental rules

    Climate legislation

    Laws to cut greenhouse gas emissions or fossil fuels could raise operating costs.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Activities · How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue, margin = segment profit ÷ segment revenue × 100

  • Distribution

    4,425 (81%)

    profit 747 · margin 16.9%

  • Pipeline and Storage

    1,065 (19%)

    profit 452 · margin 42.4%

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025, ended Sep 30, 2025) — Note on segment information Profit is segment net income. Pipeline and Storage revenue includes $785M charged to Atmos's own distribution business, eliminated in consolidated revenue ($4.70B).

10

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

Atmos operates under non-exclusive city franchises (1,010 franchises with terms of 5–35 years) and state-regulated rates. Formula rate mechanisms in four states and infrastructure programs in all states let it begin recovering about 95% of capital spending within six months.

  • long

    Regulated distribution rates

    $4.42B of external fiscal 2025 revenue

    Typical term: Set by state regulators; gas costs passed through

    Weather normalization in seven states.

  • long

    Pipeline and storage rates

    $280M of external revenue

    Typical term: Texas GRIP annual updates; full rate case at least every five years

  • long

    City franchises

    1,010 franchises

    Typical term: Generally 5–35 years; renewed as they expire

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025, ended Sep 30, 2025) — Item 1, Business

11

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

About 3.4 million residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers; pipeline customers include utilities, industrial and power generation users, marketers, and producers.

Named by the company

None named in the 10-K or the company’s press releases.

What the filings disclose

  • Peak-day distribution demand in fiscal 2025 was about 4.2 Bcf (February 19, 2025), against estimated peak-day supply of about 5.4 Bcf. (Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1)

Suppliers

Independent producers and marketers chosen mostly through competitive bidding, plus 33 pipeline transportation companies.

Named by the company

None named in the 10-K or the company’s press releases.

What the filings disclose

  • Major fiscal 2025 gas suppliers included ARM Energy Management, Cima Energy, ConocoPhillips, ECO Energy, EnLink Gas Marketing, Sequent Energy Management, Symmetry Energy Solutions, Targa Gas Marketing, Tenaska, and Texla Energy Management. (Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1)

12

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

Atmos's 10-K says its distribution business isn't in significant direct competition with other gas distributors for residential and commercial customers, but competes with electricity for heating and cooking, with other gas suppliers and alternative fuels for industrial customers, and with other pipelines. It doesn't name competitors.

Competitors named in the 10-K

Atmos's 10-K doesn't name competitors.

Peer group the company chose

Fiscal 2025 compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

Utilities similar to Atmos and of comparable size by financial measures and market capitalization, reviewed by Meridian.

Source: Proxy statement (DEF 14A, filed 2025-12-19) — Fiscal 2025 Peer Group

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

13

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2025-11-14

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2025-11-14

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2025-11-14

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2025-11-14

Line itemFY202010-K on EDGAR ↗FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue2,8213,4074,2024,2754,1654,703
Operating income8249059211,0671,3551,560
Pretax income7478198521,0001,2361,478
Net income (attributable)6016667748861,0431,199
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—20.8%23.3%1.8%-2.6%12.9%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 10029.2%26.6%21.9%25.0%32.5%33.2%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 10021.3%19.5%18.4%20.7%25.0%25.5%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets15,35919,60922,19322,51725,19428,250
Total equity6,7917,9079,41910,87012,15813,559
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable4,5324,9305,7616,5547,7848,907
Equity ratio44.2%40.3%42.4%48.3%48.3%48.0%
ROE8.9%9.1%8.9%8.7%9.1%9.3%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF1,038-1,0849783,4601,7342,049
Investing CF-1,926-1,964-2,430-2,795-2,923-3,561
Financing CF8843,1441,387-6971,4791,407
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures-898-3,054-1,467654-1,203-1,512
Cash and equivalents211175215307203
Per share & other
EPS ($)4.895.125.606.106.837.46
BVPS ($)53.9559.7166.8573.2078.3183.92
Dividend per share ($)2.302.502.722.963.223.48
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 10047.0%48.8%48.6%48.5%47.1%46.6%
P/E (x)19.617.218.217.420.322.9
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)13.211.913.813.314.315.8
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share1.771.481.521.451.772.03

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-06-30$879M+4.8%$320M+27.1%$243M+30.2%$1.43
2026-03-31$1.96B+0.6%$765M+21.6%$582M+19.8%$3.47
2025-12-31$1.34B+14.2%$515M+12.0%$403M+14.5%$2.44
2025-09-30 †$737M+12.1%$219M+18.6%$175M+30.5%—
2025-06-30$839M$252M$186M$1.16
2025-03-31$1.95B$629M$486M$3.03
2024-12-31$1.18B$459M$352M$2.23
2024-09-30 †$658M$185M$134M—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

14

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

6.2%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$1,560M × (1 − 16%) ÷ $21,204M × 100 = 6.2%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

5.72%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $27.59B ÷ ($27.59B + $8.91B) = 75.6%

e.g.Debt weight: $8.91B ÷ ($27.59B + $8.91B) = 24.4%

e.g.WACC: 7.0% × 75.6% + 1.9% × (1 − 16%) × 24.4% = 5.72%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+0.5pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 4 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 4.7%–7.0% and ROIC − WACC runs −0.8 to +1.4 points. The sign flips inside this range, so the result depends on the assumptions. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 5.72% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
0.38 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.00), so reliability is limited)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
7.04%
Cost of debt
1.93%
Tax rate
16% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
76% : 24%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 5.72%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 0.38 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.07, R² 0.00, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 0.069 + 0.33 = 0.377

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity7.04%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 0.38 × 5.5% = 7.0%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$27.59B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$8.91B
Cost of debt1.93%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)76% : 24%

15

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Not enough data for this calculation (FY2025): it needs positive free cash flow, a fiscal year-end P/E, and a positive enterprise value.

16

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.44x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -3.2%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 106%

    Most profit comes from core operations.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 30 → 29 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2025-11-14

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2025-11-14

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$2,049M ÷ $1,199M = 1.71x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

e.g.$1,560M ÷ $1,478M × 100 = 106%

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($366M + $376M) ÷ 2 ÷ $4,703M × 365 = 29 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

17

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
96.5%
Directors & officers (shares)
0.4%
Everyone else (est.)
3.1%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
0.4%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
102 of 416

1 = most institutional; 24% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.38

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 163.1M shares reported by 1,042 13F filers ÷ 169.0M shares outstanding on 2026-07-31. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2025-12-19 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-31)

18

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Fast cost recovery

    Formula rates and infrastructure programs let Atmos begin recovering about 95% of capital spending within six months and substantially all within twelve.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1

  2. 2. Protection from weather and gas prices

    Weather normalization covers about 97% of residential and commercial distribution revenue, and gas costs are passed through dollar for dollar.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1

  3. 3. Steady earnings growth

    EPS rose every year from $5.12 (FY2021) to $7.46 (FY2025).

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  4. 4. Rising dividend

    Dividend per share rose from $2.50 (FY2021) to $3.48 (FY2025), with $4.00 indicated for FY2026.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL; Q3 FY2026 earnings release

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Heavy capital spending

    Capital spending of $3.56B in fiscal 2025 exceeded operating cash flow of $2.05B, funded with debt and equity.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  2. 2. Texas concentration

    Mid-Tex (Dallas/Fort Worth) has about 1.83 million of the roughly 3.4 million customer meters, and APT is in Texas.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1

  3. 3. Extreme weather exposure

    Operating cash flow was −$1.08B in fiscal 2021, the year of Winter Storm Uri (February 2021); the Uri regulatory asset fell by $2.02B in fiscal 2023 as costs were recovered.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL; Form 10-K (FY2025), cash flow statement

19

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

22.9x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

2.04%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

47%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

-5.5%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Regulated growth

    Rate base growth from large safety-driven investment, recovered quickly through regulatory mechanisms.

    What has to hold
    Regulators keep approving recovery and returns.
    The other side
    Spending outpaces cash flow, requiring new capital.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Dividend growth

    Dividend raised to $4.00 for fiscal 2026.

    What has to hold
    EPS keeps growing.
    The other side
    Higher interest rates raise financing costs.

    Evidence: Q3 FY2026 earnings release

Fiscal year ends September 30.

20

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

17.2x

$203M vs. $12M

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

9.1x

$1.56B vs. $172M

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

-2.7x

−$1.51B vs. $554M (FCF = operating CF − capex)

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-2.6% in FY2024 ($4.28B → $4.17B)Yes, by FY2025
Operating incomeNo decline in the record—

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Pass-through of gas costs

    Purchased gas cost adjustments offset changes in gas prices dollar for dollar.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1

  • Liquidity

    $4.6B of available liquidity and 60% equity capitalization at June 30, 2026.

    Source: Q3 FY2026 earnings release

  • Storm recovery

    The Winter Storm Uri regulatory asset decreased by $2.02B in fiscal 2023 as the costs were recovered.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025), cash flow statement

22

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
13
Med
24
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Law & regulation

    Regulatory outcomes

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Revenues depend on rates approved by state regulators and the Railroad Commission of Texas.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Formula rates, infrastructure programs, and regular rate filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  2. 2Competition & technology shift

    Competition from electricity

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Electric utilities compete for space heating, water heating, and cooking, helped by promotional incentives, more efficient equipment, and promotional rates.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Natural gas has historically kept a price advantage.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  3. 3Disaster

    Severe weather and pipeline safety

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Extreme cold can strain supply and raise gas costs, and pipeline incidents could cause harm and liabilities.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    About 85% of capital spending goes to safety and reliability.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  4. 4FX & interest rates

    Financing needs

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Large capital programs require ongoing debt and equity issuance.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    60% equity capitalization and $4.6B of available liquidity (June 2026).
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med

23

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • Fiscal 2026 EPS versus $8.40–8.50 guidance.
  • Capital spending of about $4.2B in fiscal 2026.
  • Rate case outcomes.
  • Customer growth in Texas.
  • Equity and debt issuance.

24

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 10, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 17, 2026 10:06 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: November 14, 2025

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2025-11-14

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Atmos Energy Corporation’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.