NYSE: CF · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
CF Industries
CF Industries makes ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers — granular urea, UAN, and ammonium nitrate — plus industrial products such as diesel exhaust fluid, from natural gas at plants in the U.S., Canada, and the UK. Its Donaldsonville, Louisiana complex is, per its 10-K, the largest ammonia production complex in the world. Customers are mainly cooperatives, retailers, distributors, and industrial users; CHS, which owns about 11% of its main U.S. operating subsidiary, was its largest customer at 13% of sales. FY2025 net sales were $7.08 billion and net earnings $1.80 billion. With JERA and Mitsui it is building the $3.7 billion Blue Point low-carbon ammonia plant, targeted to start production in 2029.
Last updated
Analysis last edited: October 12, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 17, 2026 10:06 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 25, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2510-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-11-05
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
01
At a glanceFrom SEC data
Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.
- Revenue growthCAGRSmooths out year-to-year swings into "grew X% a year on average." Makes growth pace comparable across companies of very different sizes.
- 11.4%
- Operating marginOperating marginHow many cents of operating profit are left per dollar of revenue. Reflects pricing power and cost structure.
- 32.5%
- ROIC minus WACCROIC − WACC spreadThe difference between ROIC and WACC. Consistently positive implies value creation; consistently negative implies value destruction.
- +12.2 pts
- Net debt ÷ EBITDAEBITDAOperating income with D&A added back. A rough proxy for cash-generating power that’s less distorted by capital intensity, depreciation method, or financing/tax differences than net income.
- 0.4x
- Cash conversionOperating CF ÷ net income (cash conversion)How much of reported profit shows up as actual cash. 1x or higher means profit is backed by cash.
- 1.53x
- Dividend raisesDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year).
- 0 of 5
- P/E todayP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing.
- 6.8x
- Betaβ (beta)How much a stock moves, on average, for a 1% move in the overall market. Above 1 means more volatile than the market, which raises the return shareholders require. This site computes it from about 2.5 years (roughly 130 weeks) of weekly returns, built from Yahoo Finance daily prices, regressed against an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy, then applies the well-known long-run mean-reversion adjustment (0.67 × β + 0.33) as the WACC default.
- 0.13
Higher than 70% of 372 non-financial companies
Average yearly growth over the years shown
Higher than 86% of 311 non-financial companies
Latest fiscal year (FY2025)
Higher than 75% of 311 non-financial companies
Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost
Higher than 25% of 304 non-financial companies
Below 0 means more cash than debt
Higher than 51% of 349 non-financial companies
Operating cash flow ÷ net income
Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5
Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
Above 1 = moves more than the market
Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.
02
Valuation todayFrom SEC data
Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.
Share price$113.48close on 2026-11-04
Market cap$17.43B
- P/EP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing. today
- 6.8x
- P/BP/BShare price ÷ book value per share. Below 1x means the market values the company below its accounting net worth. This site uses the closing price nearest the fiscal year-end and highlights sub-1x readings. today
- 3.6x
- EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDAEnterprise value (≈ market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash) as a multiple of EBITDA — roughly, "how many years of EBITDA to buy the whole company." Lower is generally viewed as cheaper, and it’s more comparable than P/E across companies with different debt loads or depreciation policies. This site excludes noncontrolling interests from the EV calculation. today
- 5.8x
- FCF yieldFree cash flow (FCF)Operating CF minus capital expenditures — cash generated by the business after funding its own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. Acquisitions and securities purchases (also in investing CF) are not subtracted, so FCF can be positive in a year when total investing CF exceeds operating CF. today
- 10.3%
- Dividend yieldDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year). today
- 1.8%
At FY2025 year-end: 8.6x
Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
At FY2025 year-end: 2.5x
Book value at FY2025 year-end
At FY2025 year-end: 4.1x
EBITDA for FY2025
At FY2025 year-end: 15.2%
Free cash flow for FY2025
Dividends per share for FY2025
“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
03
What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data
The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.
- Revenue$1.66B → $1.86B (vs. a year earlier)↑ +12.1%$1.66B → $1.86B (vs. a year earlier)
- Operating margin35.0% → 37.7% (vs. a year earlier)↑ +2.7 pts35.0% → 37.7% (vs. a year earlier)
- Net income$460M → $520M (vs. a year earlier)↑ +13.0%$460M → $520M (vs. a year earlier)
- Diluted EPS$2.19 → $2.87 (vs. a year earlier)↑ +31.1%$2.19 → $2.87 (vs. a year earlier)
- Cash$2.48B → $2.82B (vs. previous quarter-end)↑ +13.7%$2.48B → $2.82B (vs. previous quarter-end)
- Long-term debt$3.22B → $3.22B (vs. previous quarter-end)→ +0.0%$3.22B → $3.22B (vs. previous quarter-end)
Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.
From the earnings release of Nov 4, 2026.
Management outlook • Issued
Expects full-year 2026 gross ammonia production of about 9.5M tons. Source sentence
The Company expects gross ammonia production for the full year 2026 to be approximately 9.5 million tons, which includes the impact of the ongoing outage at the Yazoo City, Mississippi, Complex as a result of an incident that occurred in November 2025.
Key changes
Repurchased 3.0M shares for $367M in Q3. Source sentence
Repurchased 3.0 million shares for $367 million during the third quarter of 2026
Q3 sales volumes up 7%. Source sentence
Sales volumes were 7% higher in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025 due to higher UAN, urea and other sales, partially offset by AN and ammonia sales.
Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗
04
Company profileFrom SEC dataShow
- Legal name
- CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
- Headquarters
- NORTHBROOK, IL
- Incorporated in
- Delaware
- Fiscal year end
- 12/31
- Exchange & ticker
- NYSE: CF
- Industry
- Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
- CIK
- 1324404
Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)
Employees
2,900
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description
05
Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow
When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.
Next report
Q4 FY2026
Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 45–50 days after quarter end (Feb 18, 2026; Feb 19, 2025; Feb 14, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.
Reporting pattern
- Fiscal year ends around December 31.
- Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
- Earnings releases came 30–50 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
| Quarter | Quarter ended | Earnings release (8-K) | Report filed (10-Q / 10-K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Nov 4, 2026 (+35 days) | Nov 5, 2026 10-Q (+36 days) |
| Q2 FY2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 (+36 days) | Aug 6, 2026 10-Q (+37 days) |
| Q1 FY2026 | Mar 31, 2026 | May 6, 2026 (+36 days) | May 7, 2026 10-Q (+37 days) |
| Q4 FY2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | Feb 18, 2026 (+49 days) | Feb 25, 2026 10-K (+56 days) |
| Q3 FY2025 | Sep 30, 2025 | Nov 5, 2025 (+36 days) | Nov 6, 2025 10-Q (+37 days) |
| Q2 FY2025 | Jun 30, 2025 | Aug 6, 2025 (+37 days) | Aug 7, 2025 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q1 FY2025 | Mar 31, 2025 | May 7, 2025 (+37 days) | May 8, 2025 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q4 FY2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Feb 19, 2025 (+50 days) | Feb 20, 2025 10-K (+51 days) |
| Q3 FY2024 | Sep 30, 2024 | Oct 30, 2024 (+30 days) | Oct 31, 2024 10-Q (+31 days) |
| Q2 FY2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Aug 7, 2024 (+38 days) | Aug 8, 2024 10-Q (+39 days) |
| Q1 FY2024 | Mar 31, 2024 | May 1, 2024 (+31 days) | May 2, 2024 10-Q (+32 days) |
| Q4 FY2023 | Dec 31, 2023 | Feb 14, 2024 (+45 days) | Feb 22, 2024 10-K (+53 days) |
Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.
06
Flagship products & servicesSite analysis
Ammonia
Anhydrous ammonia
Examples: 82% nitrogen
Core product, sold as fertilizer and upgraded into other products.
Granular Urea
Granular urea
Examples: 46% nitrogen
Dry nitrogen fertilizer.
UAN
Urea ammonium nitrate solution
Examples: 28–32% nitrogen
Liquid fertilizer.
AN
Ammonium nitrate
Examples: Fertilizer and explosives component
Also used by the commercial explosives industry.
Other
Industrial products
Examples: Diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, aqua ammonia
Sold mainly to industrial customers.
Product descriptions are from the FY2025 Form 10-K's Item 1.
U.S., worldwide and country/regional share of flagship products/services
Only shares the company itself states (in its filings or press releases, sometimes citing a research firm) are shown. Scope and timing vary by figure — treat these as approximate.
Ammonia
North American production capacity (Dec 31, 2025)
U.S. share
—
Not disclosedWorldwide share
—
Not disclosedNorth America
~40%
Company-disclosedDonaldsonville, Louisiana is the largest ammonia production complex in the world.
Granular urea
North American production capacity
U.S. share
—
Not disclosedWorldwide share
—
Not disclosedNorth America
~41%
Company-disclosedUAN
North American production capacity
U.S. share
—
Not disclosedWorldwide share
—
Not disclosedNorth America
~44%
Company-disclosedAmmonium nitrate (AN)
North American production capacity
U.S. share
—
Not disclosedWorldwide share
—
Not disclosedNorth America
~19%
Company-disclosed
Sources:
Shares of North American capacity for CF's eight manufacturing facilities, per the FY2025 10-K.
07
Recent strategic focusSite analysis
2026 developments from 8-Ks.
Strong first half
First-half 2026 net earnings were $1.34B ($8.71 per diluted share), including a gain of about $170M from a litigation settlement; plants ran at 98% of available ammonia capacity.
Source: 8-K filed 2026-08-05 (Exhibit 99.1)
Orica settlement
Orica agreed to pay $169.5M in cash and the 2014 ammonium nitrate purchase agreements were terminated.
Source: 8-K filed 2026-03-16
Dividend raised 20%
The quarterly dividend rose to $0.60 in July 2026.
Source: 8-K filed 2026-08-05 (Exhibit 99.1)
CFO change
CFO Gregory Cameron separated in February 2026; Andrew Scribner, from Kimberly-Clark, became CFO on May 26, 2026.
Source: 8-Ks filed 2026-01-07 and 2026-05-05
Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)
1.06x
Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
e.g.$950M ÷ $898M = 1.06x
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
M&A spend (6-year total)
$1.22B
Latest year: $0
Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired
Where the money goes, over time
Unit: $M. Capex went from $309M in FY2020 to $950M in FY2025
- Capex
- M&A spend
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25
08
Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data
FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.
Revenue (FY2025)
$7.08B
As reported in the 10-K
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
+11.4%▲favorable
formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1
e.g.($7,084M ÷ $4,124M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 11.4%
termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)
Operating margin (FY2025)
32.5%▲favorable
+17.4pt vs. 5 years ago
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
e.g.$2,300M ÷ $7,084M × 100 = 32.5%
ROE (FY2025)
36.6%▲favorable
6-year average: 41.6%
As reported in the 10-K
P/B (FY2025 end)
2.45x
formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share
e.g.$77.34 ÷ $31.51 = 2.45x
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B
EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)
4.1x
formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)
e.g.($11,876M + $3,215M − $1,982M) ÷ ($2,300M + $898M) = 4.1x
termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple
- ▲
Revenue grew +11.4% a year over 5 years (strong growth)
From $4.12B in FY2020 to $7.08B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.
- ▲
Operating margin improved: 15.1% → 32.5%
How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +17.4 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.
- ―
Equity ratio is 34.3% (a middling level)
The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).
- ▲
Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.
- ▲
ROE averaged 41.6% over 6 years (latest: 36.6%)
How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.
09
Business modelSite analysis
Business Model Canvas
The whole company in nine blocks. Left side: how it delivers (partners, activities, resources, costs). Right side: who it serves and how it earns. Every entry comes from the company’s filings shown on this page.
08 · who helps
Key partners
- CHS Inc.
- JERA and Mitsui & Co.
07 · what it does
Key activities
Nitrogen fertilizer and industrial products
Ammonia production and upgrading- Distribution by pipeline, barge, rail, truck, and ship
Low-carbon ammonia
Decarbonization projects- Building the Blue Point ATR plant
06 · what it draws on
Key resources
Nitrogen fertilizer and industrial products
Natural gas (about 34% of production costs; about 350 million MMBtus in 2025)- Six U.S., two Canadian, and one UK plant
Low-carbon ammonia
Carbon capture at Donaldsonville and Yazoo City- Blue Point JV partners JERA and Mitsui
02 · why customers buy
Value propositions
- Nitrogen fertilizer and industrial products from low-cost natural gas, and low-carbon ammonia for new uses.
04 · how it keeps them
Customer relationships
- A strategic venture with CHS, which owns about 11% of CF Nitrogen and buys product from it.
03 · how it reaches them
Channels
- Sold to cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers and industrial users.
01 · who it serves
Customer segments
Nitrogen fertilizer and industrial products
Cooperatives, retailers, independent distributors, traders, wholesalers, industrial usersLow-carbon ammonia
JV partners and industrial and energy users
09 · where money goes
Cost structure
FY2025, share of revenue ($7.08B)
- Cost of revenue61.5%
- Selling, general & administrative5.1%
- Other operating costs0.8%
Operating profit left: 32.5% of revenue. Depreciation & amortization (inside the costs above): $898M. Capital spending: $950M.
Source: Form 10-K income statement and cash-flow statement (SEC XBRL).
05 · how money comes in
Revenue streams
Nitrogen fertilizer and industrial products
Product sales at market pricesLow-carbon ammonia
Low-carbon ammonia sales
Value propositions, channels and customer relationships: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Nitrogen fertilizer and industrial products
Converting natural gas into ammonia, then upgrading it into urea, UAN, AN, and industrial products, and moving it through terminals and logistics mainly in the U.S. Midwest.
01 what it draws on
Inputs & resources
- Natural gas (about 34% of production costs; about 350 million MMBtus in 2025)
- Six U.S., two Canadian, and one UK plant
02 what it does
Activities
- Ammonia production and upgrading
- Distribution by pipeline, barge, rail, truck, and ship
03 who it serves
Customers
- Cooperatives, retailers, independent distributors, traders, wholesalers, industrial users
04 how money comes in
How it earns
- Product sales at market prices
Nitrogen fertilizer and industrial products: how it makes money
- Gross margin was $2.72B (38.5%) in FY2025.
- North America was $5.99B and Europe and other $1.09B of FY2025 net sales.
Low-carbon ammonia
Producing ammonia with carbon capture and sequestration for new uses such as power generation and steel in Japan and to reduce European carbon costs.
01 what it draws on
Inputs & resources
- Carbon capture at Donaldsonville and Yazoo City
- Blue Point JV partners JERA and Mitsui
02 what it does
Activities
- Decarbonization projects
- Building the Blue Point ATR plant
03 who it serves
Customers
- JV partners and industrial and energy users
04 how money comes in
How it earns
- Low-carbon ammonia sales
Low-carbon ammonia: how it makes money
- Donaldsonville's decarbonization project was completed in July 2025.
- Blue Point: CF 40%, JERA 35%, Mitsui 25%; about 1.4 million metric tons a year; construction started August 2026.
Government & regulation around the business
Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.
CF’s plants face emissions allowances and benefit from the EPA’s GHG Endangerment rescission.
Environmental rules
Emissions allowances
Recognizes costs if a facility exceeds regulatory emissions allowances.
Constrains the businessTouches: ActivitiesSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Environmental rules
GHG Endangerment Finding rescinded
The EPA finalized a rescission of the 2009 GHG Endangerment Finding in February 2026.
Supports the businessTouches: ActivitiesSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Trade & export rules
Anti-corruption and sanctions
Violations could bring fines and denial of export privileges.
Constrains the businessTouches: CustomersSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Revenue by segment (FY2025)
Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue, margin = segment profit ÷ segment revenue × 100
Ammonia
2,176 (31%)profit 682 · margin 31.3%
Granular Urea
1,781 (25%)profit 837 · margin 47.0%
UAN
2,161 (31%)profit 921 · margin 42.6%
AN
421 (6%)profit 79 · margin 18.8%
Other
545 (8%)profit 205 · margin 37.6%
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Note 21, Segment Disclosures Profit is gross margin, the segment measure CF uses; SG&A, interest, and taxes are managed centrally and not allocated.
10
Where it earnsSite analysis
Many U.S.-listed companies earn most of their revenue outside the U.S. — this breaks down revenue by country/region so it's clear where the business actually makes its money.
Largest market (FY2025)
North America — 85% of revenue
Revenue by country / region (FY2025)
Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue
North America
5,994 (85%)Europe and other
1,090 (15%)
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Note 4, Revenue Recognition By destination of shipment.
11
Contract structureSite analysisShow
Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.
Products are sold on credit (generally 30 days or less) or through forward sales with customer advances. Prices follow global nitrogen markets.
CHS supply arrangement
About 13% of 2025 net sales
Typical term: Strategic venture
CHS owns about 11% of CF Industries Nitrogen, LLC, which owns five U.S. plants.
Blue Point offtake
Partners buy output in proportion to ownership
Typical term: Once production begins (expected 2029)
Estimated plant cost of about $3.7B, funded by partners according to ownership.
12
Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow
Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.
Capital tie / equity stake
CHS Inc.
Strategic venture under which CHS owns about 11% of CF Industries Nitrogen, LLC; CHS was CF's largest customer in 2025 (about 13% of net sales).
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Item 1
Capital tie / equity stake
JERA and Mitsui & Co.
Blue Point joint venture (CF 40%, JERA 35%, Mitsui 25%) formed April 8, 2025 to build a low-carbon ammonia plant in Louisiana; partners contributed $195M, $170M, and $121M in 2025.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Item 1
13
Customers & suppliersSite analysis
Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.
Customers
Cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users.
Named by the company
- CHS Inc. — Largest customer in 2025 at about 13% of consolidated net sales.Form 10-K (FY2025) — Item 1
Suppliers
Natural gas suppliers across hubs such as Henry Hub, AECO, Dawn, and the UK's National Balancing Point.
Named by the company
None named in the 10-K or the company’s press releases.
What the filings disclose
- Facilities consumed about 350 million MMBtus of natural gas in 2025. (Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1)
14
Competitors & peersSite analysis
Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.
CF's 10-K says its markets are global and intensely competitive, mainly on delivered price, and names its primary North American and UK competitors; imports from regions with cheaper or subsidized gas also compete.
Competitors named in the 10-K
Peer group the company chose
2025 Industry Reference Group (compensation), from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.
19 fertilizer, chemical, and industrial gas companies; unchanged from 2024. The proxy also compares TSR with Nutrien, Mosaic, and Yara.
- Cortevasite ↗
- Mosaicsite ↗
- Nutriensite ↗
- Scotts Miracle-Grosite ↗
- Albemarlesite ↗
- Ashlandsite ↗
- Celanesesite ↗
- Ecolabsite ↗
- IFF (International Flavors & Fragrances)site ↗
- Avientsite ↗
- RPM Internationalsite ↗
- Cabotsite ↗
- Westlakesite ↗
- Chemourssite ↗
- Eastman Chemicalsite ↗
- FMCsite ↗
- Huntsmansite ↗
- Olinsite ↗
- Air Productssite ↗
Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.
15
Six years of financialsFrom SEC data
Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.
Revenue over time
Unit: $M
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25
Profit over time (operating → net)
Unit: $M
- Operating income
- Pretax income
- Net income
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25
Margins over time
Unit: %
- Operating margin
- Net margin
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100
Cash flow over time
Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)
- Operating CF
- Investing CF
- Free CF
formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures
termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25
Financial stability & capital efficiency
Unit: %
- Equity ratio
- ROE
formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets
formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity
Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share
Unit: $
- EPS
- Dividend per share
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25
| Line item | FY202010-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement ($M) | ||||||
| Revenue | 4,124 | 6,538 | 11,186 | 6,631 | 5,936 | 7,084 |
| Operating income | 623 | 1,729 | 5,397 | 2,230 | 1,746 | 2,300 |
| Pretax income | 463 | 1,543 | 5,095 | 2,248 | 1,762 | 2,239 |
| Net income (attributable) | 432 | 1,260 | 3,937 | 1,838 | 1,477 | 1,798 |
| Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100 | — | 58.5% | 71.1% | -40.7% | -10.5% | 19.3% |
| Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 100 | 15.1% | 26.4% | 48.2% | 33.6% | 29.4% | 32.5% |
| Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100 | 10.5% | 19.3% | 35.2% | 27.7% | 24.9% | 25.4% |
| Balance sheet ($M) | ||||||
| Total assets | 12,023 | 12,375 | 13,313 | 14,376 | 13,466 | 14,088 |
| Total equity | 5,603 | 6,036 | 7,853 | 8,373 | 7,592 | 7,775 |
| Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable | 3,961 | 3,465 | 2,965 | 2,968 | 2,971 | 3,215 |
| Equity ratio | 24.3% | 25.9% | 37.9% | 39.8% | 37.0% | 34.3% |
| ROE | 14.8% | 41.1% | 95.4% | 34.1% | 27.6% | 36.6% |
| Cash flow ($M) | ||||||
| Operating CF | 1,231 | 2,873 | 3,855 | 2,757 | 2,271 | 2,752 |
| Investing CF | -299 | -466 | -440 | -1,679 | -469 | -933 |
| Financing CF | -542 | -1,463 | -2,700 | -1,372 | -2,205 | -1,484 |
| Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures | 922 | 2,359 | 3,402 | 2,258 | 1,753 | 1,802 |
| Cash and equivalents | 683 | 1,628 | 2,323 | 2,032 | 1,614 | 1,982 |
| Per share & other | ||||||
| EPS ($) | 1.47 | 4.24 | 16.38 | 7.87 | 6.74 | 8.97 |
| BVPS ($) | 13.66 | 15.44 | 25.82 | 30.38 | 29.34 | 31.51 |
| Dividend per share ($) | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 100 | 81.6% | 28.3% | 9.2% | 20.3% | 29.7% | 22.3% |
| P/E (x) | 26.3 | 16.7 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization) | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.1 |
| P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share | 2.83 | 4.58 | 3.30 | 2.62 | 2.91 | 2.45 |
P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.
Last 8 quarters
Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Operating income | Net income | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | $1.86B+12.1% | $701M+20.9% | $520M+13.0% | $2.87 |
| 2026-06-30 | $2.22B+17.6% | $1.12B+73.0% | $869M+76.6% | $4.73 |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.99B+19.4% | $863M+89.7% | $676M+92.6% | $3.98 |
| 2025-12-31 † | $1.87B+22.8% | $617M+39.9% | $495M+26.3% | — |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.66B | $580M | $460M | $2.19 |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.89B | $648M | $492M | $2.37 |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.66B | $455M | $351M | $1.85 |
| 2024-12-31 † | $1.52B | $441M | $392M | — |
† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.
16
Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data
ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.
ROIC (FY2025)
17.5%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
e.g.$2,300M × (1 − 18%) ÷ $10,777M × 100 = 17.5%
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
WACC (this site’s estimate)
5.30%
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
e.g.Equity weight: $11.88B ÷ ($11.88B + $3.22B) = 78.7%
e.g.Debt weight: $3.22B ÷ ($11.88B + $3.22B) = 21.3%
e.g.WACC: 5.7% × 78.7% + 4.8% × (1 − 18%) × 21.3% = 5.30%
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 4.7%–6.4% and ROIC − WACC runs +11.1 to +12.8 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.
WACC 5.30% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
- β
- 0.13 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.01), so reliability is limited)
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Cost of equity
- 5.67%
- Cost of debt
- 4.82%
- Tax rate
- 18% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
- Capital structure (equity : debt)
- 79% : 21%
ROIC over time, vs. WACC
Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red
- ROIC (above WACC)
- ROIC (below WACC)
- WACC 5.30%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
Try different WACC assumptions
β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).
Initial β: 0.13 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β -0.30, R² 0.01, 130 weeks)
formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)
e.g.0.67 × -0.299 + 0.33 = 0.130
termsβ (beta)
Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.
formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium
e.g.5.0% + 0.13 × 5.5% = 5.7%
termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)
formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)
formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)
17
What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data
A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.
Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)
-4.4%
Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 5.3% − 9.7%
Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)
+14.3%
Compound annual rate, 5 years
Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)
+11.4%
Compound annual rate, 5 years
Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $1.8B (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $18.66B = market cap $17.43B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $3.22B − cash and short-term investments $1.98B; r = WACC of 5.3% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.13, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).
Three WACC scenarios
The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.
Try your own assumptions
V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.
Theoretical enterprise value
$18.58B
FCF $1.8B ÷ (5.3% − -4.4%)
Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value
1.00x
Below 1x: these assumptions value the business below the market did
How sensitive the answer is
Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.
| g \ r | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 2.93x | 2.25x | 1.82x | 1.53x | 1.32x |
| 2% | 7.43x | 4.20x | 2.93x | 2.25x | 1.82x |
| 4% | — | 32.19x | 7.43x | 4.20x | 2.93x |
| 6% | — | — | — | 32.19x | 7.43x |
| 8% | — | — | — | — | — |
A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.
18
Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow
The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.
- ✓
Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.78x
Profit is backed by cash coming in.
- ✓
Accrual ratio (latest): -6.9%
A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.
- ✓
Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 103%
Most profit comes from core operations.
- ✓
Days sales outstanding: 23 → 23 days
No major slowdown in collecting on sales.
Operating CF vs. net income
Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash
- Operating CF
- Net income
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25
Profit bridge (FY2025)
Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income
- Profit (each stage)
- Pushed profit up
- Pushed profit down
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25
Receivables & inventory days
Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales
- Days sales outstanding
- Days inventory outstanding
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
Worked examples (latest period)
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
e.g.$2,752M ÷ $1,798M = 1.53x
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
e.g.$2,300M ÷ $2,239M × 100 = 103%
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
e.g.($404M + $488M) ÷ 2 ÷ $7,084M × 365 = 23 days
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
e.g.($314M + $383M) ÷ 2 ÷ $4,360M × 365 = 29 days
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
19
Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow
How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.
Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30
“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.
- Held by 13F filers
- 100%+
- Directors & officers (shares)
- <1%
- Everyone else (est.)
- ≈0%
- Directors & officers (voting power)
- <1%
- Institutional-ownership rank
- 26 of 416
- Beta (adjusted)
- 0.13
Reported total 104.7%
individuals and other non-13F holders
no separate voting figure; shown as shares
1 = most institutional; 6% of covered companies have more
above 1 = swings more than the market
- 158.4M shares reported by 960 13F filers ÷ 151.3M shares outstanding on 2026-08-03. Option positions are excluded.
- The 13F total exceeds shares outstanding because some shares are reported twice — for example shares lent to short sellers and then bought by another manager, or holdings that overlapping managers both report.
- Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
- A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.
Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-03-17 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-08-03)
20
Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis
Strengths
1. Low-cost North American gas
Plants connect to major natural gas hubs; natural gas was about 34% of total production costs in 2025. The 10-K notes competing imports, some from regions with lower natural gas costs or subsidies.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Item 1
2. High margins and cash flow
Gross margin was 38.5% in 2025; trailing-12-month operating cash flow was $2.98B at June 30, 2026.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Note 21; 8-K filed 2026-08-05
3. Aggressive buybacks
Shares outstanding fell from 207.6M (FY2021) to 153.6M (FY2025); CF repurchased about $1.34B of stock in 2025.
Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL; Form 10-K (FY2025) Note 19
4. Low-carbon ammonia head start
Donaldsonville's decarbonization project was completed in July 2025, and Blue Point received construction permits in July 2026.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Item 1; 8-K filed 2026-08-05
Weaknesses
1. Commodity price swings
Net sales went from $11.19B (2022) to $5.94B (2024) and net earnings from $3.94B to $1.48B as nitrogen prices fell.
Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL
2. Yazoo City outage
An incident in November 2025 idled all production at the Yazoo City complex; CF expects to restart production in the first half of 2027 and that insurance will cover a substantial portion of the cost.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Note 6; 8-K filed 2026-08-05
3. Customer concentration
CHS alone was about 13% of 2025 net sales.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Item 1
21
What draws investors to itSite analysis
Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
P/E (FY2025)
8.6x
Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS
Dividend yield (FY2025)
2.59%
Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price
Payout ratio (FY2025)
22%
Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS
FCF yield (FY2025)
15.2%
(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap
1. Cash returns
Dividends per share rose from $1.20 (2021) to $2.00 (2025) and the quarterly rate is now $0.60; CF has repurchased 5.6M shares (about $523M) under its $2B program since October 2025.
- What has to hold
- Nitrogen margins stay healthy.
- The other side
- Earnings are cyclical and fell sharply after 2022.
Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL; 8-K filed 2026-08-05
2. Low-carbon growth option
Blue Point and carbon capture projects position CF for low-carbon ammonia demand in Japan and Europe.
- What has to hold
- Demand and policy support for low-carbon ammonia materialize.
- The other side
- Production isn't expected before 2029.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Item 1
P/E, dividend yield, payout ratio, and FCF yield use the FY2025 year-end share price. Book value per share excludes noncontrolling interests (CHS's stake and the Blue Point partners).
22
ResilienceSite analysisShow
How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.
1. Financial buffer (FY2025)
Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year
—
$1.98B vs. —
Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)
14.8x
$2.3B vs. $155M
Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid
5.5x
$1.8B vs. $326M (FCF = operating CF − capex)
2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery
| Figure | Worst year-over-year change | Back to the prior level? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -40.7% in FY2023 ($11.19B → $6.63B) | Not yet, as of FY2025 |
| Operating income | -58.7% in FY2023 ($5.4B → $2.23B) | Not yet, as of FY2025 |
Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.
3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)
Cash generation
Free cash flow of $1.82B for the 12 months to June 30, 2026.
Source: 8-K filed 2026-08-05
Bond financing
Issued $1B of 5.300% senior notes due 2035 in November 2025.
Source: 8-K filed 2025-11-26
23
Legal & regulatory mattersSite analysisShow
Lawsuits, government investigations, enforcement actions and settlements the company discloses — where each stands, what is at stake, and what comes next. From the 10-K's Legal Proceedings and contingencies note, the latest 10-Q, and 8-Ks.
CF Industries won a $170 million settlement from Orica in 2026. It now faces new 2026 class actions alleging a fertilizer price-fixing conspiracy among major producers.
1 open matter · 1 settled or closed
NPK fertilizer antitrust class actions
PendingAntitrustDirect and indirect purchasers v. CF, Mosaic, Nutrien, Koch, Yara, Canpotex and others (MDL, D. Kan.)
Filed starting March 7, 2026, alleging a conspiracy to restrain trade in nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer beginning in 2020 or 2021. The suits seek treble and punitive damages, restitution and injunctive relief. The JPML consolidated the cases before Judge Melgren.
- Amounts
- CF cannot estimate a range of potential losses.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Legal Proceedings
Orica litigation settlement
SettledContract disputeOrica International and affiliates; Nelson Brothers
Settled in March 2026; the 2014 ammonium nitrate purchase agreements were terminated.
- Amounts
- About $170 million received April 30, 2026 and recognized as a gain.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Legal Proceedings
Based on Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Legal Proceedings, reviewed 2026-10-18. Routine ordinary-course claims are not listed. “Major” is this site’s judgment of which matters could materially affect results.
24
Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis
Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.
Risk map
Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).
Likelihood →
"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"
The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.
Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.
- 1Raw materials & energy
Natural gas costs
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Natural gas is the principal raw material and fuel; competitors elsewhere may have cheaper or subsidized gas.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Spot and term purchases from multiple suppliers and financial hedges of natural gas prices.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact High / Likelihood Med
- 2Demand & macro
Fertilizer demand and prices
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Ammonia, urea, and UAN are widely traded with limited barriers to entry, and imports from the Middle East, Trinidad, Africa, and Russia compete continuously in North America.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact High / Likelihood High
- 3Disaster
Plant incidents
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- The November 2025 incident in the AN upgrade area idled all production at Yazoo City into 2027.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Insurance expected to cover a substantial portion of restoration costs.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
- 4Law & regulation
Government policy and trade
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Government taxes, duties, tariffs, quotas, and subsidies on fertilizer, raw materials, and natural gas can affect imports, exports, and prices.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
- 5M&A & integration
Blue Point execution
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- About $3.7B plant with about one-third of costs tied to imported materials, scheduled to start production in 2029.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Costs shared with JERA and Mitsui, who also take their share of output.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
- 6Customer/supplier concentration
Largest customer
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- CHS accounted for about 13% of 2025 net sales.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Strategic venture that gives CHS an equity interest in CF Industries Nitrogen.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Low
25
What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data
Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.
New or substantially reworded (4)
Beginning on January 1, 2026, importers of nitrogen fertilizer products into the EU became subject to its carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and will be required to purchase certificates in 2027 reflecting the direct and indirect carbon emissions embedded in covered imports. While some EU member state officials, including from France and Italy, are advocating that the EU Commission temporarily suspend the application of the CBAM to fertilizers, or for fertilizers to be wholly excluded from it, the EU has not yet adopted an exemption process, and it remains unclear whether such efforts will be successful. Other governments are also considering border taxes for carbon-intensive products, including the United Kingdom, which is introducing a carbon border adjustment mechanism currently expected to apply from January 1, 2027. The imposition of border taxes, the details of their…
We have and may enter into joint ventures to invest in our business. Read more
For example, in 2025, we entered into a joint venture with two Japanese partners to build a greenfield plant to produce low-carbon ammonia. This joint venture and other similar
• our ability to complete the projects at our Blue Point complex, including the construction of a low-carbon ammonia production facility with our joint venture partners and scalable infrastructure on schedule and on budget or at all;
• announced or future tariffs, retaliatory measures, and global trade relations, including the potential impact of tariffs and retaliatory measures on the price and availability of materials for our capital projects and maintenance;
No longer in the text (1)
The EU finalized its overall carbon border adjustment mechanism in May 2023. Read more
During the interim phase, covering imports, including nitrogenous fertilizers, entering the EU from the fourth quarter of 2023 through the fourth quarter of 2025, importers must file quarterly reports on the emissions intensity of covered products. For imports that enter the EU starting in 2026, charges will be required for emissions over certain thresholds, with the EU still to set forth additional details. Other governments are also considering border taxes for carbon intensive products. The imposition of any such taxes may impact investment and trade flows, which could adversely impact our business.
Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2025 ↗.
26
What to watch going forwardSite analysis
- Restart of Yazoo City in the first half of 2027.
- Blue Point construction cost and schedule.
- Nitrogen prices and global supply.
- U.S. natural gas prices.
- Pace of buybacks under the $2B program.
27
Source documentsShow
This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.
Last updated
Analysis last edited: October 12, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 17, 2026 10:06 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 25, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-25
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent CF Industries’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.