NYSE: MOS · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Mosaic Company (The)
Mosaic, based in Tampa, Florida, describes itself as the world’s leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It is the second-largest integrated phosphate producer in the world, mining phosphate rock in Florida and processing it in Florida and Louisiana; mines potash in Saskatchewan and New Mexico; and, through Mosaic Fertilizantes, is the leading fertilizer production and distribution company in Brazil. 2025 net sales to external customers were Phosphate $3,878 million, Potash $2,659 million and Mosaic Fertilizantes $4,847 million, for a total of $12,052 million; net income was $541 million. Earnings swing with fertilizer prices: net income peaked at $3,583 million in 2022. In April 2026 Mosaic began idling its Araxá complex in Brazil, expecting a $350–400 million pre-tax charge, and posted a loss in the first half of 2026.
Last updated
Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:48 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 27, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2710-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-11-04Proxy statement (2026)
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
01
At a glanceFrom SEC data
Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.
- Revenue growthCAGRSmooths out year-to-year swings into "grew X% a year on average." Makes growth pace comparable across companies of very different sizes.
- 6.8%
- Operating marginOperating marginHow many cents of operating profit are left per dollar of revenue. Reflects pricing power and cost structure.
- 6.8%
- ROIC minus WACCROIC − WACC spreadThe difference between ROIC and WACC. Consistently positive implies value creation; consistently negative implies value destruction.
- -4.2 pts
- Net debt ÷ EBITDAEBITDAOperating income with D&A added back. A rough proxy for cash-generating power that’s less distorted by capital intensity, depreciation method, or financing/tax differences than net income.
- 2.1x
- Cash conversionOperating CF ÷ net income (cash conversion)How much of reported profit shows up as actual cash. 1x or higher means profit is backed by cash.
- 1.53x
- Dividend raisesDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year).
- 1 of 5
- P/E todayP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing.
- —
- Betaβ (beta)How much a stock moves, on average, for a 1% move in the overall market. Above 1 means more volatile than the market, which raises the return shareholders require. This site computes it from about 2.5 years (roughly 130 weeks) of weekly returns, built from Yahoo Finance daily prices, regressed against an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy, then applies the well-known long-run mean-reversion adjustment (0.67 × β + 0.33) as the WACC default.
- 0.88
Higher than 40% of 372 non-financial companies
Average yearly growth over the years shown
Higher than 19% of 311 non-financial companies
Latest fiscal year (FY2025)
Higher than 12% of 311 non-financial companies
Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost
Higher than 57% of 304 non-financial companies
Below 0 means more cash than debt
Higher than 50% of 349 non-financial companies
Operating cash flow ÷ net income
Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5
Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
Above 1 = moves more than the market
Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.
02
Valuation todayFrom SEC data
Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.
Share price$19.31close on 2026-11-04
Market cap$6.13B
- P/EP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing. today
- —
- P/BP/BShare price ÷ book value per share. Below 1x means the market values the company below its accounting net worth. This site uses the closing price nearest the fiscal year-end and highlights sub-1x readings. today
- 0.5x
- EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDAEnterprise value (≈ market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash) as a multiple of EBITDA — roughly, "how many years of EBITDA to buy the whole company." Lower is generally viewed as cheaper, and it’s more comparable than P/E across companies with different debt loads or depreciation policies. This site excludes noncontrolling interests from the EV calculation. today
- 5.4x
- FCF yieldFree cash flow (FCF)Operating CF minus capital expenditures — cash generated by the business after funding its own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. Acquisitions and securities purchases (also in investing CF) are not subtracted, so FCF can be positive in a year when total investing CF exceeds operating CF. today
- -8.7%
- Dividend yieldDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year). today
- 4.6%
At FY2025 year-end: 14.2x
Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
At FY2025 year-end: 0.6x
Book value at FY2025 year-end
At FY2025 year-end: 6.2x
EBITDA for FY2025
At FY2025 year-end: -7.0%
Free cash flow for FY2025
Dividends per share for FY2025
“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
03
What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data
The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.
- Revenue$3.45B → $3.1B (vs. a year earlier)↓ −10.2%$3.45B → $3.1B (vs. a year earlier)
- Operating margin9.8% → -3.1% (vs. a year earlier)↓ −13.0 pts9.8% → -3.1% (vs. a year earlier)
- Net income$411M → −$72M (vs. a year earlier)↓ −$72M$411M → −$72M (vs. a year earlier)
- Diluted EPS$1.29 → $-0.23 (vs. a year earlier)↓ $-0.23$1.29 → $-0.23 (vs. a year earlier)
- Cash$294M → $273M (vs. previous quarter-end)↓ −7.3%$294M → $273M (vs. previous quarter-end)
Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.
From the earnings release of Nov 3, 2026.
Management outlook • Issued
Now expects full-year potash production of 8.6M tonnes. Source sentence
As a result, full-year potash production is now expected to be 8.6 million tonnes in 2026.
Key changes
Potash net sales $643M versus $695M. Source sentence
The Potash segment reported net sales of $643 million in the third quarter of 2026 , down from $695 million in the prior year period.
Phosphate operating loss of $194M. Source sentence
The segment generated an operating loss of $194 million during the period, which compared to operating income of $102 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗
04
Company profileFrom SEC dataShow
- Legal name
- MOSAIC CO
- Headquarters
- TAMPA, FL
- Fiscal year end
- 12/31
- Exchange & ticker
- NYSE: MOS
- Industry
- Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
- CIK
- 1285785
- Website
- https://www.mosaicco.com/ ↗
Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)
Employees
13,249
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description
05
Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow
When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.
Next report
Q4 FY2026
Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 52–58 days after quarter end (Feb 24, 2026; Feb 27, 2025; Feb 21, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.
Reporting pattern
- Fiscal year ends around December 31.
- Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
- Earnings releases came 31–58 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
| Quarter | Quarter ended | Earnings release (8-K) | Report filed (10-Q / 10-K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Nov 3, 2026 (+34 days) | Nov 4, 2026 10-Q (+35 days) |
| Q2 FY2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Aug 4, 2026 (+35 days) | Aug 5, 2026 10-Q (+36 days) |
| Q1 FY2026 | Mar 31, 2026 | May 11, 2026 (+41 days) | May 11, 2026 10-Q (+41 days) |
| Q4 FY2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | Feb 24, 2026 (+55 days) | Feb 27, 2026 10-K (+58 days) |
| Q3 FY2025 | Sep 30, 2025 | Nov 4, 2025 (+35 days) | Nov 5, 2025 10-Q (+36 days) |
| Q2 FY2025 | Jun 30, 2025 | Aug 5, 2025 (+36 days) | Aug 6, 2025 10-Q (+37 days) |
| Q1 FY2025 | Mar 31, 2025 | — | May 7, 2025 10-Q (+37 days) |
| Q4 FY2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Feb 27, 2025 (+58 days) | Mar 3, 2025 10-K (+62 days) |
| Q3 FY2024 | Sep 30, 2024 | Nov 12, 2024 (+43 days) | Nov 12, 2024 10-Q (+43 days) |
| Q2 FY2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Aug 6, 2024 (+37 days) | Aug 7, 2024 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q1 FY2024 | Mar 31, 2024 | May 1, 2024 (+31 days) | May 2, 2024 10-Q (+32 days) |
| Q4 FY2023 | Dec 31, 2023 | Feb 21, 2024 (+52 days) | Feb 22, 2024 10-K (+53 days) |
Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.
06
Flagship products & servicesSite analysis
Phosphate
Phosphate crop nutrients
Concentrated phosphates such as DAP, MAP and premium products, plus phosphate-based animal feed ingredients.
Potash
Potash
Muriate of potash for agriculture and industrial uses.
Mosaic Fertilizantes
Brazil fertilizers
Blended crop nutrients produced and distributed in Brazil and Paraguay.
Corporate and Other
Mosaic Biosciences
Biological crop products.
From the Form 10-K, FY2025.
U.S., worldwide and country/regional share of flagship products/services
Only shares the company itself states (in its filings or press releases, sometimes citing a research firm) are shown. Scope and timing vary by figure — treat these as approximate.
Concentrated phosphate and potash
Global crop nutrients
U.S. share
—
Not disclosedWorldwide share
World’s leading producer and marketer
Company-disclosed“the world’s leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients”
Phosphate rock
Global phosphate rock mining (ex-China)
U.S. share
—
Not disclosedWorldwide share
Second largest
Company-disclosed“world’s second largest miner of phosphate rock (excluding China)”
Fertilizers
Brazil
U.S. share
—
Not disclosedWorldwide share
—
Not disclosedBrazil
Leading producer and distributor
Company-disclosed“the leading fertilizer production and distribution company in Brazil”
07
Recent strategic focusSite analysis
Recent developments.
Araxá idling
On April 8, 2026 Mosaic said it would idle and demobilize its Araxá complex and related mining at Patrocínio in Brazil, with a $350–400M pre-tax charge.
Source: Form 8-K (2026-04-08) — Item 2.06 (Araxá idling)
Debt refinancing
Issued $2.0B of senior notes due 2031–2036 on August 17, 2026, alongside cash tender offers for older notes.
Source: Form 8-K (2026-08-17) — Item 8.01
Asset sales
Sold the idled Patos de Minas phosphate unit in Brazil for $111M in October 2025 (gain of $94M).
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)
1.29x
Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
e.g.$1,359M ÷ $1,050M = 1.29x
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
M&A spend (6-year total)
$41M
Latest year: $0
Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired
Where the money goes, over time
Unit: $M. Capex went from $1.17B in FY2020 to $1.36B in FY2025
- Capex
- M&A spend
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-27
08
Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data
FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.
Revenue (FY2025)
$12.05B
As reported in the 10-K
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
+6.8%▲favorable
formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1
e.g.($12,052M ÷ $8,682M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 6.8%
termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)
Operating margin (FY2025)
6.8%▲favorable
+2.1pt vs. 5 years ago
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
e.g.$822M ÷ $12,052M × 100 = 6.8%
ROE (FY2025)
4.6%▼caution
6-year average: 11.7%
As reported in the 10-K
P/B (FY2025 end)
0.63x
Below 1x (price below book value per share)
formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share
e.g.$24.09 ÷ $38.07 = 0.63x
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B
EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)
6.2x
formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)
e.g.($7,646M + $4,251M − $277M) ÷ ($822M + $1,050M) = 6.2x
termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple
- ▲
Revenue grew +6.8% a year over 5 years (strong growth)
From $8.68B in FY2020 to $12.05B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.
- ▲
Operating margin improved: 4.8% → 6.8%
How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +2.1 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.
- ―
Equity ratio is 49.4% (a middling level)
The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).
- ―
Free cash flow was positive in 5 of 6 years
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.
- ▲
ROE averaged 11.7% over 6 years (latest: 4.6%)
How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.
09
Business modelSite analysis
Business Model Canvas
The whole company in nine blocks. Left side: how it delivers (partners, activities, resources, costs). Right side: who it serves and how it earns. Every entry comes from the company’s filings shown on this page.
08 · who helps
Key partners
No partners or suppliers named in the filings.
07 · what it does
Key activities
- Phosphate: mining and processing phosphate fertilizers and feed
- Potash: mining and selling potash
- Mosaic Fertilizantes: production and distribution in Brazil
06 · what it draws on
Key resources
- 13,249 employees (2025)
- Phosphate rock mines in Florida (17.2Mt combined capacity) and Brazil
- Potash mines in Saskatchewan and New Mexico
- Sulfur and ammonia raw materials
02 · why customers buy
Value propositions
- Phosphate and potash crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients.
04 · how it keeps them
Customer relationships
- Ongoing supply to agricultural customers.
03 · how it reaches them
Channels
- Wholesalers, retailers, cooperatives and farmers in about 40 countries; Mosaic Fertilizantes in Brazil.
01 · who it serves
Customer segments
- Wholesalers, retail dealers and cooperatives
- Farmers in Brazil
- Industrial and animal feed customers
09 · where money goes
Cost structure
FY2025, share of revenue ($12.05B)
- Cost of revenue84.2%
- Selling, general & administrative4.4%
- Other operating costs4.5%
Operating profit left: 6.8% of revenue. Depreciation & amortization (inside the costs above): $1.05B. Capital spending: $1.36B.
Source: Form 10-K income statement and cash-flow statement (SEC XBRL).
05 · how money comes in
Revenue streams
- Mosaic Fertilizantes $4,847M (2025, external)
- Phosphate $3,878M
- Potash $2,659M
- Corporate and other $669M
Value propositions, channels and customer relationships: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Mines phosphate rock and potash, processes them into concentrated crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and sells them to wholesalers, retailers, cooperatives and farmers in about 40 countries, with a large distribution business in Brazil.
01 what it draws on
Inputs & resources
- 13,249 employees (2025)
- Phosphate rock mines in Florida (17.2Mt combined capacity) and Brazil
- Potash mines in Saskatchewan and New Mexico
- Sulfur and ammonia raw materials
02 what it does
Activities
- Phosphate: mining and processing phosphate fertilizers and feed
- Potash: mining and selling potash
- Mosaic Fertilizantes: production and distribution in Brazil
03 who it serves
Customers
- Wholesalers, retail dealers and cooperatives
- Farmers in Brazil
- Industrial and animal feed customers
04 how money comes in
How it earns
- Mosaic Fertilizantes $4,847M (2025, external)
- Phosphate $3,878M
- Potash $2,659M
- Corporate and other $669M
How the business makes money
- Undiscounted Gypstack closure cost ARO under the 2015 consent decrees about $2.3B.
- Holds equity securities of Ma’aden (Saudi Arabian Mining Company).
- About $750M of environmental capital spending projected for 2026.
Government & regulation around the business
Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.
Mosaic faces EPA enforcement and CERCLA liabilities.
Approvals & licenses
EPA notice
EPA Region 6 issued a Notice of Potential Violation in September 2022 for its Faustina facility.
Constrains the businessTouches: ActivitiesSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Environmental rules
CERCLA
May incur cleanup costs under CERCLA.
Constrains the businessTouches: ActivitiesSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Revenue by segment (FY2025)
Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue
Mosaic Fertilizantes
4,847 (40%)Phosphate
3,878 (32%)Potash
2,659 (22%)Corporate, Eliminations and Other
669 (6%)
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Net sales to external customers; total $12,052M.
10
Contract structureSite analysisShow
Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.
11
Customers & suppliersSite analysis
Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.
Customers
Wholesalers, retailers, cooperatives, farmers and industrial customers in about 40 countries.
Named by the company
No customer concentration is disclosed.
Suppliers
Sulfur, ammonia and energy suppliers.
Named by the company
No material supplier is named.
12
Competitors & peersSite analysis
Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.
Mosaic competes with domestic and international producers, including farmer cooperatives, subsidiaries of larger companies, independent crop nutrient companies and state-owned or subsidized entities.
Competitors named in the 10-K
The 10-K does not name specific competitors.
Peer group the company chose
Compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.
2025 peer group from the 2026 proxy statement.
- Air Productssite ↗
- Alcoasite ↗
- Barrick Miningsite ↗
- Celanesesite ↗
- CF Industriessite ↗
- Cortevasite ↗
- DuPontsite ↗
- Eastman Chemicalsite ↗
- Ecolabsite ↗
- FMCsite ↗
- Freeport-McMoRansite ↗
- Newmontsite ↗
- Nutriensite ↗
- PPGsite ↗
- Teck Resourcessite ↗
- Westlakesite ↗
Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.
13
Six years of financialsFrom SEC data
Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.
Revenue over time
Unit: $M
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-27
Profit over time (operating → net)
Unit: $M
- Operating income
- Pretax income
- Net income
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-27
Margins over time
Unit: %
- Operating margin
- Net margin
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100
Cash flow over time
Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)
- Operating CF
- Investing CF
- Free CF
formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures
termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-27
Financial stability & capital efficiency
Unit: %
- Equity ratio
- ROE
formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets
formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity
Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share
Unit: $
- EPS
- Dividend per share
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-27
| Line item | FY202010-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement ($M) | ||||||
| Revenue | 8,682 | 12,357 | 19,125 | 13,696 | 11,123 | 12,052 |
| Operating income | 413 | 2,469 | 4,785 | 1,338 | 622 | 822 |
| Pretax income | 181 | 2,225 | 4,643 | 1,326 | 315 | 1,213 |
| Net income (attributable) | 666 | 1,631 | 3,583 | 1,165 | 175 | 541 |
| Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100 | — | 42.3% | 54.8% | -28.4% | -18.8% | 8.4% |
| Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 100 | 4.8% | 20.0% | 25.0% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% |
| Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100 | 7.7% | 13.2% | 18.7% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 4.5% |
| Balance sheet ($M) | ||||||
| Total assets | 19,790 | 22,036 | 23,386 | 23,033 | 22,924 | 24,480 |
| Total equity | 9,755 | 10,749 | 12,194 | 12,433 | 11,615 | 12,234 |
| Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable | 4,074 | 3,382 | 2,412 | 3,232 | 3,332 | 4,251 |
| Equity ratio | 48.4% | 48.1% | 51.5% | 53.4% | 50.1% | 49.4% |
| ROE | 7.0% | 16.2% | 31.6% | 9.6% | 1.5% | 4.6% |
| Cash flow ($M) | ||||||
| Operating CF | 1,583 | 2,187 | 3,936 | 2,407 | 1,299 | 825 |
| Investing CF | -1,189 | -1,322 | -1,260 | -1,317 | -1,261 | -1,309 |
| Financing CF | -284 | -682 | -2,679 | -1,480 | -132 | 452 |
| Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures | 412 | 898 | 2,689 | 1,005 | 47 | -535 |
| Cash and equivalents | 574 | 770 | 735 | 349 | 273 | 277 |
| Per share & other | ||||||
| EPS ($) | 1.75 | 4.27 | 10.06 | 3.50 | 0.55 | 1.70 |
| BVPS ($) | 25.30 | 28.76 | 35.55 | 37.92 | 36.23 | 38.07 |
| Dividend per share ($) | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.60 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 100 | 11.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 24.3% | 154.5% | 51.8% |
| P/E (x) | 13.2 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 10.2 | 44.7 | 14.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization) | 9.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.2 |
| P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share | 0.91 | 1.37 | 1.23 | 0.94 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Periods below 1x are shown in red. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.
Last 8 quarters
Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Operating income | Net income | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | $3.1B-10.2% | −$97M-128.4% | −$72M-117.5% | $-0.23 |
| 2026-06-30 | $2.82B-6.0% | −$36M-114.5% | −$273M-166.4% | $-0.86 |
| 2026-03-31 | $3B+14.4% | −$373M-210.2% | −$258M-208.2% | $-0.81 |
| 2025-12-31 † | $2.97B | −$101M-201.3% | −$520M-407.4% | — |
| 2025-09-30 | $3.45B | $340M | $411M | $1.29 |
| 2025-06-30 | $3.01B | $244M | $411M | $1.29 |
| 2025-03-31 | $2.62B | $339M | $238M | $0.75 |
| 2024-12-31 † | — | $100M | $169M | — |
† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.
14
Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data
ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.
ROIC (FY2025)
3.4%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
e.g.$822M × (1 − 35%) ÷ $15,716M × 100 = 3.4%
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
WACC (this site’s estimate)
7.61%
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
e.g.Equity weight: $7.65B ÷ ($7.65B + $4.25B) = 64.3%
e.g.Debt weight: $4.25B ÷ ($7.65B + $4.25B) = 35.7%
e.g.WACC: 9.8% × 64.3% + 5.7% × (1 − 35%) × 35.7% = 7.61%
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 6.5%–9.0% and ROIC − WACC runs −5.6 to −3.1 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.
WACC 7.61% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
- β
- 0.88 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.09), so reliability is limited)
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Cost of equity
- 9.79%
- Cost of debt
- 5.68%
- Tax rate
- 35% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
- Capital structure (equity : debt)
- 64% : 36%
ROIC over time, vs. WACC
Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red
- ROIC (above WACC)
- ROIC (below WACC)
- WACC 7.61%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
Try different WACC assumptions
β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).
Initial β: 0.88 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.82, R² 0.09, 130 weeks)
formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)
e.g.0.67 × 0.820 + 0.33 = 0.879
termsβ (beta)
Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.
formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium
e.g.5.0% + 0.88 × 5.5% = 9.8%
termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)
formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)
formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)
15
What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data
A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.
Not enough data for this calculation (FY2025): it needs positive free cash flow, a fiscal year-end P/E, and a positive enterprise value.
16
Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow
The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.
- ✓
Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 2.64x
Profit is backed by cash coming in.
- ✓
Accrual ratio (latest): -1.2%
A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.
- !
Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 68%
Non-operating items (interest income, equity-method gains, other income/expense) are having a bigger effect.
- ✓
Days sales outstanding: 37 → 33 days
No major slowdown in collecting on sales.
Operating CF vs. net income
Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash
- Operating CF
- Net income
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-27
Profit bridge (FY2025)
Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income
- Profit (each stage)
- Pushed profit up
- Pushed profit down
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-27
Receivables & inventory days
Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales
- Days sales outstanding
- Days inventory outstanding
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
Worked examples (latest period)
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
e.g.$825M ÷ $541M = 1.53x
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
e.g.$822M ÷ $1,213M × 100 = 68%
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
e.g.($1,113M + $1,079M) ÷ 2 ÷ $12,052M × 365 = 33 days
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
e.g.($2,548M + $3,363M) ÷ 2 ÷ $10,151M × 365 = 106 days
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
17
Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow
How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.
Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30
“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.
- Held by 13F filers
- 95.4%
- Directors & officers (shares)
- <1%
- Everyone else (est.)
- 4.6%
- Directors & officers (voting power)
- <1%
- Institutional-ownership rank
- 116 of 416
- Beta (adjusted)
- 0.88
individuals and other non-13F holders
no separate voting figure; shown as shares
1 = most institutional; 28% of covered companies have more
above 1 = swings more than the market
- 303.3M shares reported by 666 13F filers ÷ 317.9M shares outstanding on 2026-07-31. Option positions are excluded.
- Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
- A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.
Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-04-16 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-31)
18
Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis
Strengths
1. Scale in phosphate
World’s second-largest integrated phosphate producer and second-largest miner of phosphate rock outside China.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Brazil distribution
Leading fertilizer production and distribution company in Brazil; Fertilizantes was the largest segment by external sales in 2025.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
3. Low-cost resources
Owns phosphate and potash reserves in North America.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Weaknesses
1. Commodity cyclicality
Net income ranged from $175M (2024) to $3,583M (2022).
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Environmental liabilities
Gypstack closure obligations (~$2.3B undiscounted) and consent decree requirements.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
3. Rising debt
Long-term debt rose from $3.3B to $4.3B in 2025, and Mosaic issued $2.0B of notes in August 2026.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
19
What draws investors to itSite analysis
Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
P/E (FY2025)
14.2x
Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS
Dividend yield (FY2025)
3.65%
Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price
Payout ratio (FY2025)
52%
Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS
FCF yield (FY2025)
-7.0%
(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap
1. Fertilizer cycle leverage
Earnings rise sharply when crop nutrient prices rise.
- What has to hold
- Prices recover.
- The other side
- Downturns cut profits sharply.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Strategic resources
Large phosphate and potash reserves.
- What has to hold
- Demand for food grows.
- The other side
- Environmental costs.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
FY2021 dividend per share uses cash dividends paid ($0.30), consistent with the other years.
20
ResilienceSite analysisShow
How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.
1. Financial buffer (FY2025)
Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year
0.3x
$277M vs. $803M
Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)
3.4x
$822M vs. $242M
Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid
-1.9x
−$535M vs. $280M (FCF = operating CF − capex)
2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery
| Figure | Worst year-over-year change | Back to the prior level? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -28.4% in FY2023 ($19.13B → $13.7B) | Not yet, as of FY2025 |
| Operating income | -72.0% in FY2023 ($4.79B → $1.34B) | Not yet, as of FY2025 |
Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.
3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)
Profitable through the cycle
Net income stayed positive every year 2020–2025, with a low of $175M in 2024.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)
21
Legal & regulatory mattersSite analysisShow
Lawsuits, government investigations, enforcement actions and settlements the company discloses — where each stands, what is at stake, and what comes next. From the 10-K's Legal Proceedings and contingencies note, the latest 10-Q, and 8-Ks.
Mosaic’s main legal matters are environmental consent decrees and new fertilizer antitrust class actions.
3 open matters (1 flagged as major) · 1 settled or closed
Fertilizer antitrust class actions
PendingAntitrustMajorMosaic and other fertilizer producers
Beginning in March 2026, putative class actions were filed against Mosaic and other producers by direct and indirect purchasers of nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizers.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Contingencies
Uncle Sam consent decree review
PendingEnforcement / sanctionEPA, DOJ
EPA alleged non-compliance with a sulfuric acid plant consent decree and referred the matter to DOJ for stipulated penalties.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Contingencies
Cruz litigation
PendingClass actionMosaic Global Operations Inc.
Putative class action filed in 2020 in Hillsborough County, Florida against Mosaic Global Operations and two co-defendants.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Contingencies
2015 RCRA consent decrees
Closed, no actionEnvironmentalEPA, DOJ, FDEP, LDEQ
Consent decrees with EPA, DOJ, FDEP and Louisiana DEQ require financial assurance for Gypstack closure (~$2.3B undiscounted ARO).
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Contingencies
Company statement: Other proceedings are described as ordinary-course and not expected to be material.
Based on Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Contingencies, reviewed 2026-10-30. Routine ordinary-course claims are not listed. “Major” is this site’s judgment of which matters could materially affect results.
22
Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis
Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.
Risk map
Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).
Likelihood →
"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"
The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.
Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.
- 1Demand & macro
Fertilizer prices and farm economics
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Sales and margins depend on crop prices and farmer demand.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact High / Likelihood High
- 2Raw materials & energy
Sulfur and ammonia costs
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Key raw material costs affect phosphate margins.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
- 3Law & regulation
Environmental regulation
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Consent decrees, Gypstack closure and water management obligations in Florida and Louisiana.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
- 4Competition & technology shift
Global and state-owned competitors
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Competes with producers worldwide, including state-owned and subsidized entities.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
- 5FX & interest rates
Brazilian real
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- A large part of the business is in Brazil.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- We hedge the net Brazilian real exposure of our inventory production activities for up to four months, covering the operational cycle of the business.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
23
What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data
Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.
New or substantially reworded (3)
Our ability to fund operations, meet obligations, and pursue strategic initiatives depends on maintaining sufficient liquidity and access to capital markets. Read more
We rely on cash generated from operations, committed credit facilities, and debt financing. Adverse conditions in global credit markets, disruptions in banking systems, or a deterioration in our financial performance could limit our ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms or at all.
Our credit ratings significantly affect our cost of borrowing and access to financing. Read more
A downgrade by any major rating agency—whether due to industry conditions, commodity price volatility, or company-specific factors—could increase our borrowing costs and restrict access to credit markets.
If we are unable to maintain adequate liquidity or favorable credit ratings, we may be forced to reduce capital expenditures, delay strategic projects, or seek alternative financing under unfavorable terms. Read more
Any of these outcomes could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
No longer in the text (3)
Pandemics, epidemics or other health outbreaks have, and could again, adversely affect the global economy and have, and could again, significantly disrupt our operations, key suppliers or third-party logistics providers, customers and ultimate end-users. These disruptions could arise due to the spread of the outbreak and/or from measures to contain or mitigate it such as quarantines and extended closures of businesses mandated by government authorities. For example, the Covid-19 pandemic adversely affected our businesses in multiple ways, including by creating short-term labor shortages due to illness, and transportation issues, such as trucking delays and port congestion, which slowed delivery of inputs to our facilities and products to our end customers.
The full impact of another public health event depends on various factors, any of which could materially increase our costs, negatively impact our revenue and/or adversely impact our results of operations and liquidity, possibly to a significant degree. A public health event could also have the effect of heightening many of the other risks described in this Item 1A of this Form 10-K.
We cannot predict the full impact of these rules or potentially related judicial actions, or future actions, or whether or how it would affect our Brazilian operations or customers. Read more
Any accident involving our tailings or other dams, or any shut down or idling of our related mines, could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.
Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Mar 3, 2025 ↗.
24
What to watch going forwardSite analysis
- Phosphate and potash prices.
- Araxá idling and Brazil restructuring.
- Antitrust class actions filed from March 2026.
25
Source documentsShow
This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.
Other sources referenced in the analysis
Last updated
Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:48 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 27, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-27Proxy statement (2026)
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Mosaic Company (The)’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.