KabuDo

NASDAQ: CHRW · Air Freight & Logistics

C.H. Robinson

C.H. Robinson is a freight broker and logistics company. It owns very little transportation equipment; instead it matches 75,000 customers with a network of 450,000 contract carriers and earns the spread between what shippers pay and what it pays carriers. Its two reportable segments are North American Surface Transportation (truckload and LTL brokerage) and Global Forwarding (ocean, air, and customs); it also runs Robinson Fresh produce sourcing. FY2025 revenue was $16.2 billion and net income $587 million. On October 4, 2026 it agreed to acquire RXO, another freight broker, in a cash-and-stock deal expected to close in the first half of 2027.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 31, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 17, 2026 10:06 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 13, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-1310-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-30

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
0.0%

Higher than 6% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
4.9%

Higher than 13% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
+11.9 pts

Higher than 75% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.0x

Higher than 37% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
1.56x

Higher than 52% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
5 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
23.6x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
0.84

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$133.49close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$15.81B

P/E today
23.6x

At FY2025 year-end: 33.3x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
8.6x

At FY2025 year-end: 10.3x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
18.6x

At FY2025 year-end: 22.2x

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
5.7%

At FY2025 year-end: 4.7%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
1.9%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +29.5%$4.14B → $5.36B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↓ −0.3 pts5.3% → 5.1% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +21.8%$163M → $198M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +24.6%$1.34 → $1.67 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↑ +24.9%$155M → $193M (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt↑ +10.9%$1.69B → $1.87B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Oct 28, 2026.

Key changes

  • Income from operations up 23.1% to $271.8M. Source sentence
    Income from operations increased 23.1% to $271.8 million
  • Diluted EPS up 24.6% to $1.67. Source sentence
    Diluted earnings per share ("EPS") increased 24.6% to $1.67
  • Cash from operations down $151.3M to $124.1M. Source sentence
    Cash generated by operations decreased by $151.3 million to $124.1 million due to unfavorable changes in working capital driven by higher transportation rates

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
C. H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC.
Headquarters
EDEN PRAIRIE, MN
Incorporated in
Delaware
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NASDAQ: CHRW
Industry
Air Freight & Logistics
CIK
1043277

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    11,855

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 28–31 days after quarter end (Jan 28, 2026; Jan 29, 2025; Jan 31, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 28–31 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Oct 28, 2026 (+28 days)Oct 30, 2026 10-Q (+30 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 29, 2026 (+29 days)Jul 31, 2026 10-Q (+31 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 29, 2026 (+29 days)May 1, 2026 10-Q (+31 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Jan 28, 2026 (+28 days)Feb 13, 2026 10-K (+44 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 29, 2025 (+29 days)Oct 31, 2025 10-Q (+31 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 30, 2025 (+30 days)Aug 1, 2025 10-Q (+32 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025Apr 30, 2025 (+30 days)May 2, 2025 10-Q (+32 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Jan 29, 2025 (+29 days)Feb 14, 2025 10-K (+45 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 30, 2024 (+30 days)Nov 1, 2024 10-Q (+32 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 31, 2024 (+31 days)Aug 2, 2024 10-Q (+33 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024May 1, 2024 (+31 days)May 3, 2024 10-Q (+33 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Jan 31, 2024 (+31 days)Feb 16, 2024 10-K (+47 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • NAST

    Truckload and LTL brokerage

    Examples: Contract and spot truckload, LTL

    Truckload adjusted gross profit was $1.05B and LTL $610M in 2025.

  • Global Forwarding

    Ocean, air, customs

    Examples: NVOCC ocean freight, air freight, customs brokerage

    International freight forwarding.

  • All Other

    Robinson Fresh and Managed Solutions

    Examples: Produce sourcing, Managed TMS

    Sourcing and outsourced transportation management.

Descriptions are from the FY2025 Form 10-K's Item 1.

U.S., worldwide and country/regional share of flagship products/services

Only shares the company itself states (in its filings or press releases, sometimes citing a research firm) are shown. Scope and timing vary by figure — treat these as approximate.

  • Logistics services (truckload brokerage, global forwarding)

    Global logistics providers

    U.S. share

    —

    Not disclosed

    Worldwide share

    One of the largest

    Company-disclosed

    The 10-K calls C.H. Robinson one of the largest global logistics providers, with $16.2B of 2025 revenue; no share figure is given.

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Restructuring, 2026 results, and the RXO deal, from 8-Ks.

  1. RXO acquisition agreed

    On October 4, 2026, C.H. Robinson agreed to acquire RXO; each RXO share can receive $17.25 cash plus 0.0856 CHRW shares, $30.25 cash, or 0.1992 CHRW shares (subject to proration). Closing is expected in the first half of 2027, backed by a $4.5B bridge facility commitment. On October 22, 2026 the credit agreement was amended to permit the RXO acquisition and its financing.

    Source: 8-K filed 2026-10-05; 8-K filed 2026-10-28 (Item 1.01)

  2. Q3 2026 results

    Income from operations rose 23.1% to $271.8M and diluted EPS 24.6% to $1.67; operating cash flow fell $151.3M to $124.1M on working capital; $289.1M was returned to shareholders (+52.5%).

    Source: 8-K filed 2026-10-28 (Exhibit 99.1)

  3. Advisory jury verdict

    A Dallas County jury awarded $604M in compensatory damages in an advisory verdict against the company and two others in July 2026.

    Source: 8-K filed 2026-07-24

  4. Europe exit

    The Europe Surface Transportation business was sold effective February 1, 2025.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Note 15

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

0.19x

Below depreciation — investment is being pared back

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$20M ÷ $103M = 0.19x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$250M

Latest year: $12M

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $23M in FY2020 to $20M in FY2025

  • Capex
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-13

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$16.23B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+0.0%

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($16,233M ÷ $16,207M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 0.0%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

4.9%

+0.7pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$795M ÷ $16,233M × 100 = 4.9%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

32.9%▲favorable

6-year average: 35.3%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

10.32x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$160.76 ÷ $15.58 = 10.32x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

22.2x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($19,039M + $1,089M − $161M) ÷ ($795M + $103M) = 22.2x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ―

    Revenue grew +0.0% a year over 5 years (modest growth)

    From $16.21B in FY2020 to $16.23B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ―

    Operating margin held roughly flat: 4.2% → 4.9%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +0.7 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ―

    Equity ratio is 36.5% (a middling level)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▲

    Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 35.3% over 6 years (latest: 32.9%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

North American Surface Transportation (NAST)

Truckload and less-than-truckload brokerage across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

North American Surface Transportation (NAST): how money and goods flow
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • Contract carriers (450,000 on its platform)
    • Proprietary technology and pricing models (Lean AI)
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Matching shippers' loads with carriers
    • Pricing and managing shipments
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Shippers from Fortune 100 companies to small businesses
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Freight charges billed to shippers (gross), less purchased transportation

North American Surface Transportation (NAST): how it makes money

  • Revenue $11.56B and segment operating income $622M in FY2025, up from $531M.
  • Q3 2026 NAST volume rose about 3.5% while the Cass Freight Shipment Index fell 0.3%.

Global Forwarding

Ocean and air freight forwarding and customs brokerage through an international office network and independent agents.

Global Forwarding: how money and goods flow
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • Ocean and air carrier capacity
    • Offices and agents worldwide
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Consolidating and forwarding international shipments
    • Customs brokerage
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Importers and exporters
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Forwarding and brokerage fees

Global Forwarding: how it makes money

  • Revenue $3.09B and segment operating income $184M in FY2025 (down from $3.81B and $212M).

All Other (Robinson Fresh, Managed Solutions)

Fresh produce sourcing and marketing, and outsourced transportation management (Managed TMS). Europe Surface Transportation was sold in February 2025.

All Other (Robinson Fresh, Managed Solutions): how money and goods flow
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • Produce growers
    • TMS technology
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Buying and selling fresh produce
    • Managing clients' transportation
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Retailers, foodservice, and shippers
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Produce sales
    • Management fees

All Other (Robinson Fresh, Managed Solutions): how it makes money

  • Sourcing revenue was $1.41B in FY2025.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

C.H. Robinson’s forwarding volumes were hit by 2025 tariffs.

  • Trade & export rules

    Tariffs

    Tariffs affected Global Forwarding in 2025, especially the second quarter.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Customers · How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue, margin = segment profit ÷ segment revenue × 100

  • NAST

    11,562.7 (71%)

    profit 621.8 · margin 5.4%

  • Global Forwarding

    3,090 (19%)

    profit 183.8 · margin 5.9%

  • All Other and Corporate

    1,580 (10%)

    profit —

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Notes 8 and 9, Segment Reporting and Revenue Revenue is gross (including amounts paid to carriers). Profit is segment operating income; All Other and Corporate had an operating loss of $11M including unallocated costs. Adjusted gross profit margin (non-GAAP) was 16.8% in 2025.

10

Where it earnsSite analysis

Many U.S.-listed companies earn most of their revenue outside the U.S. — this breaks down revenue by country/region so it's clear where the business actually makes its money.

Largest market (FY2025)

United States — 88% of revenue

Revenue by country / region (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • United States

    14,339.5 (88%)
  • Other locations

    1,893.3 (12%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Note 8 By location of the customer.

11

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

Commitments range from single shipments to integrated multi-year relationships. Customer concentration is low: the largest customer was about 2% of 2025 revenue, though the top 100 customers made up about 40% of revenue.

  • Top 100 customers

    About 40% of total revenues, about 28% of adjusted gross profits in 2025

    Largest single customer about 2%.

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Item 1 and Item 1A

12

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

75,000 customers worldwide, from Fortune 100 companies to small businesses.

Named by the company

No customer is named; the largest was about 2% of 2025 revenue.

What the filings disclose

  • Customers fell from 83,000 in 2024 to 75,000 in 2025, mainly due to the sale of Europe Surface Transportation. (Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1)

Suppliers

Contract carriers (motor carriers, railroads, ocean and air carriers) and produce growers.

Named by the company

None named in the 10-K or the company’s press releases.

What the filings disclose

  • 450,000 contract carriers on its platform. (Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1)

13

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

C.H. Robinson's 10-K says it competes against asset-based transportation providers, third-party brokers, technology matching and internet brokers, carriers offering logistics, on-demand providers, NVOCCs, IACs, and freight forwarders, and in produce against brokers, growers, and wholesalers. No company is named.

Competitors named in the 10-K

C.H. Robinson's 10-K doesn't name competitors.

Peer group the company chose

2025 compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

Transportation, logistics, and distribution companies of comparable size. Uber and Fastenal were removed for 2026.

Source: Proxy statement (DEF 14A, filed 2026-03-24) — Compensation Discussion and Analysis, Peer Group

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

14

M&A historySite analysisShow

Companies acquired over the last five years, plus older large acquisitions that still anchor a current business — what each was bought to do, and what happened afterward. From the 10-K, 8-Ks, and the company's press releases.

C.H. Robinson's pending RXO deal would be its largest acquisition.

Cash spent on acquisitions, FY2020–FY2025: $250M

  1. Pending (expected 1H 2027)

    RXO, Inc.

    Per RXO share: $17.25 cash + 0.0856 CHRW share, or $30.25 cash, or 0.1992 CHRW share (prorated)

    Freight brokerage and logistics company.

    Stated purpose (company)
    Not stated in the 8-K's Item 1.01.

    Source: 8-K filed 2026-10-05

15

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-13

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-13

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-13

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-13

Line itemFY202010-K on EDGAR ↗FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue16,20723,10224,69717,59617,72516,233
Operating income6731,0821,267515669795
Pretax income6281,0221,167409579722
Net income (attributable)506844941325466587
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—42.5%6.9%-28.7%0.7%-8.4%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 1004.2%4.7%5.1%2.9%3.8%4.9%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 1003.1%3.7%3.8%1.8%2.6%3.6%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets5,1447,0285,9555,2255,2985,058
Total equity1,8802,0221,3531,4191,7221,846
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable1,0931,9191,9741,5801,3781,089
Equity ratio36.5%28.8%22.7%27.2%32.5%36.5%
ROE26.9%43.3%55.7%23.5%29.7%32.9%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF499951,650732509915
Investing CF-272-86-65-83-74-55
Financing CF-4418-1,620-718-416-863
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures476611,588702486895
Cash and equivalents244257217146146161
Per share & other
EPS ($)3.726.317.402.723.864.83
BVPS ($)14.0015.6511.6412.1514.5115.58
Dividend per share ($)2.042.082.262.442.462.49
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 10054.8%33.0%30.5%89.7%63.7%51.6%
P/E (x)25.217.112.431.826.833.3
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)17.413.39.118.817.622.2
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share6.716.887.877.117.1210.32

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$5.36B+29.5%$272M+23.1%$198M+21.8%$1.67
2026-06-30$4.93B+19.3%$256M+18.4%$187M+22.5%$1.56
2026-03-31$4.01B-0.8%$176M-0.7%$147M+8.8%$1.22
2025-12-31 †$3.91B-6.5%$181M-1.3%$136M-8.7%—
2025-09-30$4.14B$221M$163M$1.34
2025-06-30$4.14B$216M$152M$1.26
2025-03-31$4.05B$177M$135M$1.11
2024-12-31 †$4.18B$184M$149M—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

16

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

21.2%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$795M × (1 − 19.5%) ÷ $3,017M × 100 = 21.2%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

9.30%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $19.04B ÷ ($19.04B + $1.09B) = 94.6%

e.g.Debt weight: $1.09B ÷ ($19.04B + $1.09B) = 5.4%

e.g.WACC: 9.6% × 94.6% + 5.8% × (1 − 19.5%) × 5.4% = 9.30%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+11.9pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 6 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 7.7%–11.3% and ROIC − WACC runs +9.9 to +13.5 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 9.30% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
0.84 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.09), so reliability is limited)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
9.57%
Cost of debt
5.79%
Tax rate
19.5% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
95% : 5%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 9.30%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 0.84 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.76, R² 0.09, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 0.757 + 0.33 = 0.837

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity9.57%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 0.84 × 5.5% = 9.6%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$19.04B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$1.09B
Cost of debt5.79%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)95% : 5%

17

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

4.0%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 9.3% − 5.3%

Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+13.5%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+0.0%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $895M (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $16.74B = market cap $15.81B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $1.09B − cash and short-term investments $161M; r = WACC of 9.3% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.84, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$16.88B

FCF $895M ÷ (9.3% − 4.0%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

1.01x

Above 1x: these assumptions value the business above the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r7.3%8.3%9.3%10.3%11.3%
0%0.73x0.64x0.57x0.52x0.47x
2%1.01x0.85x0.73x0.64x0.57x
4%1.62x1.24x1.01x0.85x0.73x
6%4.11x2.32x1.62x1.24x1.01x
8%—17.82x4.11x2.32x1.62x

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

18

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.29x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -6.3%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 110%

    Most profit comes from core operations.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 55 → 53 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-13

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-13

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$915M ÷ $587M = 1.56x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

e.g.$795M ÷ $722M × 100 = 110%

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($2,384M + $2,361M) ÷ 2 ÷ $16,233M × 365 = 53 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

19

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
100%+

Reported total 106.3%

Directors & officers (shares)
0.4%
Everyone else (est.)
≈0%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
0.4%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
23 of 416

1 = most institutional; 5% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.84

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 124.2M shares reported by 890 13F filers ÷ 116.9M shares outstanding on 2026-07-29. Option positions are excluded.
  • The 13F total exceeds shares outstanding because some shares are reported twice — for example shares lent to short sellers and then bought by another manager, or holdings that overlapping managers both report.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-03-24 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-29)

20

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Asset-light model

    C.H. Robinson owns very little transportation equipment, relying on 450,000 contract carriers; capex was $20M in 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Item 1; SEC EDGAR XBRL

  2. 2. Productivity gains

    Average headcount fell from 16,041 (2023) to 12,733 (2025) while operating income rose from $515M to $795M.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) MD&A

  3. 3. Market share gains

    Q3 2026 was the 14th consecutive quarter of NAST volume outgrowing the market, NAST truckload adjusted gross profit per shipment rose 17.0%, and both NAST and Global Forwarding hit their mid-cycle operating margin targets.

    Evidence: 8-K filed 2026-10-28 (Exhibit 99.1)

  4. 4. Low customer concentration

    The largest customer was about 2% of 2025 revenue.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Item 1

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Freight cycle exposure

    Revenue fell from $24.7B (2022) to $16.2B (2025), and net income from $941M to $587M; the Cass Freight Shipment Index was still down year over year in Q3 2026 (−0.3%).

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL; 8-K filed 2026-07-29; 8-K filed 2026-10-28 (Exhibit 99.1)

  2. 2. Litigation exposure

    In July 2026 a Dallas County jury issued an advisory verdict of $604M in compensatory damages, which could be assessed against C.H. Robinson, over an accident involving an independent motor carrier.

    Evidence: 8-K filed 2026-07-24

  3. 3. Thin margins on gross revenue

    Adjusted gross profit margin was 16.8% of revenue in 2025, and operating income was 4.9% of revenue.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) MD&A

21

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

33.3x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

1.55%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

52%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

4.7%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Earnings recovery in a weak market

    EPS rose from $2.72 (2023) to $4.83 (2025); Q2 2026 EPS was up 23.8% and Q3 2026 up 24.6%.

    What has to hold
    Productivity gains continue.
    The other side
    Revenue is still well below 2022, and the RXO deal adds risk.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL; 8-K filed 2026-07-29; 8-K filed 2026-10-28 (Exhibit 99.1)

  2. 2. Dividend

    Dividends per share rose from $2.08 (2021) to $2.49 (2025).

    What has to hold
    Cash flow holds up.
    The other side
    Dividend growth has been slow since 2023.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

P/E, dividend yield, payout ratio, and FCF yield use the FY2025 year-end share price. Interest expense is shown only for FY2024–FY2025, from the MD&A.

22

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

No debt due

$161M vs. $0

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

12.6x

$795M vs. $63M

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

3.0x

$895M vs. $301M (FCF = operating CF − capex)

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-28.7% in FY2023 ($24.7B → $17.6B)Not yet, as of FY2025
Operating income-59.4% in FY2023 ($1.27B → $515M)Not yet, as of FY2025

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Low capital needs

    Asset-light model with about $20M of capex in 2025.

    Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  • Cash generation

    Operating cash flow of $915M in 2025.

    Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL

24

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
5
34
1
Med
2
Low
6
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Demand & macro

    Freight demand and pricing

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Volumes and margins depend on freight demand and the spread between contract rates and carrier costs; truckload spot costs rose significantly in Q2 and Q3 2026, and higher transportation rates cut Q3 operating cash flow to $124M.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Revenue management and productivity improvements through its Lean AI strategy, per the company.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  2. 2Competition & technology shift

    Fragmented competition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competes with asset-based carriers, freight brokers, digital matching services, carriers offering logistics, freight forwarders, and NVOCCs in a highly competitive, fragmented industry.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  3. 3Law & regulation

    Liability for carrier accidents

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Lawsuits over accidents involving independent motor carriers can result in large verdicts, such as the $604M advisory verdict in 2026.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    The company disagrees with the verdict and expects to appeal if it becomes final.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  4. 4M&A & integration

    RXO acquisition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    The RXO deal requires up to a $4.5B bridge loan, shareholder approval, and integration of a large broker.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    A $175M termination fee payable by RXO in specified circumstances; MFN Partners signed a voting and support agreement.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  5. 5Customers & sales

    Large customers

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Top 100 customers were about 40% of revenue; the 10-K says the sudden loss of major customers could materially affect results.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Largest customer only about 2% of revenue.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Low
  6. 6FX & interest rates

    Interest rates

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Exposed mainly through short-term floating-rate debt.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Low / Likelihood Med

25

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (2)

  • The industry is undergoing rapid technological change, including the emergence of disruptive technologies and accelerated adoption of automation and AI. Read more

    Competitors are leveraging advanced digital platforms, AI-driven freight matching, and automation to improve efficiency and reduce costs. If we fail to maintain the pace, scale, or quality of automation and AI adoption, we may be unable to achieve our strategic goals for operational efficiency and digital transformation. Inability to keep up with these advancements could increase our cost to serve customers, reduce productivity and negatively impact our ability to compete. Delays in implementing new systems or integrating emerging technologies into our workflows may also lead to higher operating expenses and missed opportunities for growth. If we cannot effectively respond to competitive pressures and technological disruption, our…

  • • changes in tariffs, trade restrictions, trade agreements, and taxations. Read more

    In 2025, the United States government made significant changes to our national trade policy, including imposing tariffs on certain goods imported into the United States. The tariffs impacted our Global Forwarding business in 2025, most significantly in the second quarter of 2025, with volatile market conditions causing global demand fluctuations and lower volumes. Changes in United States trade policy, including tariffs on certain imported goods, could continue to increase our costs and disrupt global supply chains. These actions, and any retaliatory measures by other countries, may lead to higher transportation costs and reduced demand, resulting in potential loss of freight volume. Additionally, heightened customs requirements could delay shipments and require significant internal resources, increasing…

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 14, 2025 ↗.

26

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • RXO deal approvals, financing, and integration.
  • Outcome of the $604M advisory verdict.
  • Freight market recovery and spot truckload costs.
  • Further productivity gains from AI and automation.
  • Global Forwarding results as ocean rates move.

27

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 31, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 17, 2026 10:06 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 13, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-13

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent C.H. Robinson’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.