KabuDo

NASDAQ: FAST · Trading Companies & Distributors

Fastenal

Fastenal distributes industrial and construction supplies (fasteners, safety supplies, tools, janitorial and other products) through branches, customer-site locations (Onsites) and Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI) such as industrial vending machines. 2025 net sales were $8,200 million and net income $1,258 million. Manufacturing customers made up 75.9% of sales. Fasteners were 30.5% of sales and safety supplies 22.2%. National accounts made up 65% of sales, and no customer reached 5%. It has almost no debt. Jeffery Watts succeeded Daniel Florness as CEO on July 16, 2026.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 24, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 24, 2026 09:13 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 5, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-0510-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-19Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
7.7%

Higher than 46% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
20.2%

Higher than 56% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
+23.2 pts

Higher than 90% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.1x

Higher than 19% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
1.03x

Higher than 11% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
1 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
42.1x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
0.68

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$52.06close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$59.77B

P/E today
42.1x

At FY2025 year-end: 36.8x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
15.2x

At FY2025 year-end: 11.7x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
32.5x

At FY2025 year-end: 25.0x

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
1.8%

At FY2025 year-end: 2.3%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
1.7%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +15.5%$2.13B → $2.46B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↑ +0.9 pts20.7% → 21.5% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +19.7%$336M → $402M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +20.7%$0.29 → $0.35 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↑ +3.5%$205M → $212M (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt↓ −16.7%$120M → $100M (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Oct 14, 2026.

Key changes

  • Daily sales up 15.5%. Source sentence
    Daily sales increased 15.5% year-over-year, primarily driven by share gains with larger customers, pricing actions, and broad-based demand across core end markets.
  • Operating margin 21.5%, up 90 basis points. Source sentence
    Operating margin was 21.5%, a 90 basis point improvement y ear-over-year , as selling, general, and administrative expense leverage more than offset customer mix-related gross margin pressure.
  • Returned $328M to shareholders. Source sentence
    Returned $328 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, representing 82% of net income.

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
FASTENAL CO
Headquarters
WINONA, MN
Incorporated in
Minnesota
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NASDAQ: FAST
Industry
Trading Companies & Distributors
CIK
815556

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    24,489

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 17–20 days after quarter end (Jan 20, 2026; Jan 17, 2025; Jan 18, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 11–20 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Oct 14, 2026 (+14 days)Oct 19, 2026 10-Q (+19 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 14, 2026 (+14 days)Jul 16, 2026 10-Q (+16 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 13, 2026 (+13 days)Apr 16, 2026 10-Q (+16 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Jan 20, 2026 (+20 days)Feb 5, 2026 10-K (+36 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 14, 2025 (+14 days)Oct 16, 2025 10-Q (+16 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 14, 2025 (+14 days)Jul 17, 2025 10-Q (+17 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025Apr 11, 2025 (+11 days)Apr 16, 2025 10-Q (+16 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Jan 17, 2025 (+17 days)Feb 6, 2025 10-K (+37 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 11, 2024 (+11 days)Oct 16, 2024 10-Q (+16 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 12, 2024 (+12 days)Jul 17, 2024 10-Q (+17 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024Apr 11, 2024 (+11 days)Apr 16, 2024 10-Q (+16 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Jan 18, 2024 (+18 days)Feb 6, 2024 10-K (+37 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Fasteners

    Fasteners and miscellaneous supplies

    30.5% of 2025 sales; the original product line (1967).

  • Safety

    Safety supplies

    22.2% of 2025 sales, the largest non-fastener line.

  • Services

    Fastenal Managed Inventory

    Examples: Industrial vending, bin stock

    Inventory programs at customer sites; non-fastener lines benefit disproportionately from vending.

From the FY2025 Form 10-K.

U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services

The filings reviewed give no market share or rank; the 10-K notes its market potential estimates are not derived from independent market share data.

Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. First nine months of 2026

    Net sales $7,051.9M versus $6,173.1M; net income $1,124.2M versus $964.4M.

    Source: Form 10-Q Q3 2026

  2. Leadership

    President and Chief Sales Officer Jeffery Watts succeeded Daniel Florness as CEO on July 16, 2026; Max Tunnicliff became CFO in November 2025.

    Source: Forms 8-K 2025-11-03 and 2025-12-22

  3. Financing

    Amended and restated its unsecured revolving credit agreement in June 2026.

    Source: Form 8-K 2026-06-23

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

1.37x

Well above depreciation — expansion-stage investment

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$245M ÷ $179M = 1.37x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$125M

Latest year: $0

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $168M in FY2020 to $245M in FY2025

  • Capex
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-05

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$8.2B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+7.7%▲favorable

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($8,201M ÷ $5,647M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 7.7%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

20.2%

-0.0pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$1,656M ÷ $8,201M × 100 = 20.2%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

33.3%▲favorable

6-year average: 33.4%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

11.68x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$40.13 ÷ $3.44 = 11.68x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

25.0x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($46,072M + $125M − $277M) ÷ ($1,656M + $179M) = 25.0x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▲

    Revenue grew +7.7% a year over 5 years (strong growth)

    From $5.65B in FY2020 to $8.2B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ―

    Operating margin held roughly flat: 20.2% → 20.2%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved -0.0 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ▲

    Equity ratio is 78.0% (a high level of financial stability)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▲

    Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 33.4% over 6 years (latest: 33.3%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Sells maintenance, repair and operating (MRO) and production supplies close to customers through local Sites, Onsites inside customer facilities, vending and bin-stock programs, and digital channels.

How money and goods flow at Fastenal
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • 24,489 employees
    • Regional distribution centers and local inventory (54% held at selling locations)
    • Private-label and branded products from suppliers
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Fastenal Managed Inventory (bin stock and industrial vending)
    • Onsite locations in customer facilities
    • eCommerce and contract programs
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Manufacturing (75.9% of 2025 sales)
    • Non-residential construction (8.1%)
    • Other, including government and resellers (16.0%)
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • United States $6,819M
    • Canada & Mexico $1,110M
    • Other countries $271M (2025)

How the business makes money

  • National accounts were 65% of 2025 sales.
  • No single customer was 5% or more of 2025 net sales.
  • An estimated 24%–29% of business is with customers engaged in some type of reselling activity.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Fastenal’s 2025 pricing was lifted by tariffs.

  • Trade & export rules

    Tariff-related pricing

    Tariff-related pricing added 170–200 basis points to 2025 growth.

    Supports and constrainsTouches: Inputs & resources · How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Government as customer

    Government contracts

    Faces claims from its status as a government contractor.

    Supports and constrainsTouches: Customers · How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Fasteners

    2,501.2 (31%)
  • Safety supplies

    1,820.5 (22%)
  • Janitorial supplies

    738 (9%)
  • Tools

    680.6 (8%)
  • Hydraulics & pneumatics

    565.8 (7%)
  • Material handling

    467.4 (6%)
  • Cutting tools

    426.4 (5%)
  • Electrical supplies

    385.4 (5%)
  • Welding supplies

    352.6 (4%)
  • Other

    262.4 (3%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Note 2, sales by product line Derived from product-line percentages of $8,200.5M total revenue (e.g., fasteners 30.5%); one reportable segment.

10

Where it earnsSite analysis

Many U.S.-listed companies earn most of their revenue outside the U.S. — this breaks down revenue by country/region so it's clear where the business actually makes its money.

Largest market (FY2025)

United States — 83% of revenue

Revenue by country / region (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • United States

    6,818.9 (83%)
  • Canada and Mexico

    1,110.2 (14%)
  • All other foreign countries

    271.4 (3%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — geographic information Total $8,200.5M.

11

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

12

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Manufacturers, construction companies, governments and resellers; mostly contract accounts.

Named by the company

No customer is named; none reached 5% of 2025 net sales.

What the filings disclose

Suppliers

Branded and private-label product suppliers, including imports.

Named by the company

No supplier is named.

13

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

The industrial, construction and maintenance supply industry is fragmented and competitive; the 10-K names no specific competitor.

Competitors named in the 10-K

No competitor is named in the 10-K.

Peer group the company chose

2025 compensation peer group (10 companies), from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

Companies with similar end markets or operating characteristics competing for a similar pool of employees.

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

14

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-05

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-05

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-05

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-05

Line itemFY202010-K on EDGAR ↗FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue5,6476,0116,9817,3477,5468,201
Operating income1,1421,2171,4541,5291,5101,656
Pretax income1,1331,2081,4401,5221,5081,655
Net income (attributable)8599251,0871,1551,1511,258
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—6.4%16.1%5.2%2.7%8.7%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 10020.2%20.3%20.8%20.8%20.0%20.2%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 10015.2%15.4%15.6%15.7%15.2%15.3%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets3,9654,2994,5494,4634,6985,053
Total equity2,7333,0423,1633,3493,6163,944
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable405390555260200125
Equity ratio68.9%70.8%69.5%75.0%77.0%78.0%
ROE31.4%32.0%35.0%35.5%33.0%33.3%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF1,1027709411,4331,1731,296
Investing CF-282-148-163-161-214-231
Financing CF-754-627-775-1,282-914-1,055
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures9346147671,2609471,051
Cash and equivalents246236230221256277
Per share & other
EPS ($)0.750.800.951.011.001.09
BVPS ($)2.382.642.772.933.153.44
Dividend per share ($)0.700.560.620.890.780.88
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 10094.0%70.0%65.6%88.1%78.0%80.3%
P/E (x)32.840.025.032.136.036.8
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)21.826.916.821.724.425.0
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share10.2612.128.5411.0611.4011.68

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$2.46B+15.5%$531M+20.2%$402M+19.7%$0.35
2026-06-30$2.39B+14.7%$502M+15.1%$383M+15.9%$0.33
2026-03-31$2.2B+12.4%$448M+13.6%$340M+13.8%$0.30
2025-12-31 †$2.03B+11.1%$384M+11.4%$294M+12.1%—
2025-09-30$2.13B$442M$336M$0.29
2025-06-30$2.08B$436M$330M$0.29
2025-03-31$1.96B$394M$299M$0.26
2024-12-31 †$1.82B$345M$262M—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

15

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

31.9%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$1,656M × (1 − 24%) ÷ $3,942M × 100 = 31.9%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

8.68%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $46.07B ÷ ($46.07B + $125M) = 99.7%

e.g.Debt weight: $125M ÷ ($46.07B + $125M) = 0.3%

e.g.WACC: 8.7% × 99.7% + 5.0% × (1 − 24%) × 0.3% = 8.68%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+23.2pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 6 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 7.1%–10.7% and ROIC − WACC runs +21.3 to +24.8 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 8.68% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
0.68 (price-derived adjusted beta)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
8.69%
Cost of debt
4.96%
Tax rate
24% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
100% : 0%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 8.68%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 0.68 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.53, R² 0.11, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 0.527 + 0.33 = 0.683

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity8.69%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 0.68 × 5.5% = 8.7%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$46.07B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$125M
Cost of debt4.96%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)100% : 0%

16

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

6.9%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 8.7% − 1.8%

Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+2.4%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+7.7%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $1.05B (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $59.62B = market cap $59.77B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $125M − cash and short-term investments $277M; r = WACC of 8.7% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.68, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$58.37B

FCF $1.05B ÷ (8.7% − 6.9%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

0.98x

Below 1x: these assumptions value the business below the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r6.7%7.7%8.7%9.7%10.7%
0%0.26x0.23x0.20x0.18x0.16x
2%0.37x0.31x0.26x0.23x0.20x
4%0.65x0.48x0.37x0.31x0.26x
6%2.52x1.04x0.65x0.48x0.37x
8%——2.52x1.04x0.65x

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

17

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.05x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -0.8%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 100%

    Most profit comes from core operations.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 50 → 52 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-05

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-05

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding
  • Days inventory outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$1,296M ÷ $1,258M = 1.03x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

e.g.$1,656M ÷ $1,655M × 100 = 100%

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($1,109M + $1,245M) ÷ 2 ÷ $8,201M × 365 = 52 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

e.g.($1,645M + $1,748M) ÷ 2 ÷ $4,509M × 365 = 137 days

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

18

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
85.5%
Directors & officers (shares)
<1%
Everyone else (est.)
14.5%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
<1%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
258 of 416

1 = most institutional; 62% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.68

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 981.7M shares reported by 1,459 13F filers ÷ 1,147.5M shares outstanding on 2026-07-10. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-02-25 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-10)

19

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Minimal debt

    Interest-bearing debt fell from $555M (2022) to $125M (2025); equity ratio 78%.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  2. 2. High returns

    ROE of 33% in 2025.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  3. 3. Diversified customers

    No customer was 5% or more of 2025 net sales.

    Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Industrial cyclicality

    Manufacturing customers are 75.9% of sales, tying results to industrial activity.

    Evidence: Form 10-K FY2025

  2. 2. High payout

    Dividends paid were $1,004M in 2025 against net income of $1,258M.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

20

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

36.8x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

2.18%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

80%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

2.3%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Steady growth with little debt

    Net sales rose from $5,647M (2020) to $8,200M (2025) with minimal borrowing.

    What has to hold
    Onsite and FMI growth continues.
    The other side
    Industrial cycle.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  2. 2. Dividends

    Split-adjusted dividend per share of $0.875 in 2025.

    What has to hold
    Earnings keep growing.
    The other side
    Payout already high.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

Per-share figures and share counts for 2020–2022 are adjusted for the May 21, 2025 2-for-1 stock split (later years are restated in the filings). Product-line revenue is derived from the 10-K's percentages.

21

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

11.1x

$277M vs. $25M

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

267.0x

$1.66B vs. $6M

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

1.0x

$1.05B vs. $1B (FCF = operating CF − capex)

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
RevenueNo decline in the record—
Operating income-1.2% in FY2024 ($1.53B → $1.51B)Yes, by FY2025

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Strong balance sheet

    Debt of $125M at end-2025 against equity of $3.9B.

    Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  • Local inventory

    54% of inventory sits at selling locations near customers.

    Source: Form 10-K FY2025

23

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
1
Med
34
2
Low
5
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Demand & macro

    Manufacturing and construction activity

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Weakness in manufacturing or commercial construction reduces sales.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Growth in Onsites and FMI.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  2. 2Law & regulation

    Tariffs and trade

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Trade disruptions between the U.S., Canada and Mexico or with other nations, and tariffs on imported products, can affect costs and pricing.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  3. 3Competition & technology shift

    Competition, including online

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competes with large distributors, brick-and-mortar retailers and digital channels that may use technology more effectively.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Integrated physical and digital model.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  4. 4Costs & inflation

    Product and transportation inflation

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Changes in product, fuel and freight costs affect gross margin.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Pricing actions.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  5. 5Governance & key people

    CEO transition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Jeffery Watts became CEO on July 16, 2026; Daniel Florness remains a strategic advisor until early 2028.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Internal successor.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Low / Likelihood Med

24

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (1)

  • We may not be successful in adopting and integrating emerging technologies. Read more

    Our ability to maintain and enhance our competitive position depends in part on our capacity to adopt and integrate emerging technologies, including AI and advanced analytics, into our operations, customer solutions, and supply chain management. If we fail to identify, develop, or implement relevant technologies in a timely and cost-effective manner, or if such technologies do not deliver the anticipated benefits, our business operations, customer experience, and financial performance could be adversely affected. Additionally, our competitors may leverage these technologies more effectively, which could result in a loss of market share. The evolving regulatory landscape surrounding AI and data usage may also introduce compliance risks and additional costs. These factors could materially and adversely impact our…

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 5, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 6, 2025 ↗.

25

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • Execution under new CEO Jeffery Watts after July 16, 2026.
  • Manufacturing demand: daily sales to manufacturing customers grew 10.4% in 2025.
  • Tariff effects on pricing and margins.

26

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 24, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 24, 2026 09:13 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 5, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-05Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Fastenal’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.