KabuDo

NYSE: CVNA · Automotive Retail

Carvana

Carvana sells used vehicles online, with home delivery or pickup at its car vending machines, and buys cars from consumers. It reconditions vehicles at its own sites, including ADESA auction locations acquired in 2022. It originates auto loans and sells them to buyers such as Ally, and runs a wholesale marketplace. 2025 revenue was $20.3 billion (+49%) on 596,641 retail units (+43%), and operating income was $1.9 billion. Net income attributable to Carvana was $1.4 billion. That figure includes a $2.2 billion valuation-allowance release and is offset by $2.2 billion of tax receivable agreement expense. In Q3 2026, retail units grew about 39% to 217,385, its first quarter above 200,000.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 17, 2026 10:07 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 18, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-1810-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-28

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
29.5%

Higher than 94% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
9.3%

Higher than 24% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
+9.2 pts

Higher than 70% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.2x

Higher than 40% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
0.74x

Higher than 3% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
—

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
6.4x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
1.91

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$76.80close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$10.92B

P/E today
6.4x

At FY2025 year-end: 10.0x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
3.2x

At FY2025 year-end: 3.5x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
6.3x

At FY2025 year-end: 6.8x

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
8.1%

At FY2025 year-end: 7.4%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
—

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +42.4%$5.65B → $8.04B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↓ −0.9 pts9.8% → 8.9% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +91.4%$151M → $289M (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↑ +15.9%$2.63B → $3.05B (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt→ +0.1%$5.17B → $5.18B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Oct 28, 2026.

Key changes

  • Retail units 217,385, up 39%. Source sentence
    Retail units sold totaled 217,385, an increase of 39%
  • Gross profit $1.521B, up 32%. Source sentence
    Total Gross profit was $1.521 billion, an increase of 32%
  • Net income margin 6.0% versus 4.7%. Source sentence
    Net income margin was 6.0%, an increase from 4.7%

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
CARVANA CO.
Headquarters
TEMPE, AZ
Incorporated in
Delaware
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NYSE: CVNA
Industry
Automotive Retail
CIK
1690820

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    23,100

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 49–53 days after quarter end (Feb 18, 2026; Feb 19, 2025; Feb 22, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 28–53 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Oct 28, 2026 (+28 days)Oct 28, 2026 10-Q (+28 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 29, 2026 (+29 days)Jul 29, 2026 10-Q (+29 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 29, 2026 (+29 days)Apr 29, 2026 10-Q (+29 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Feb 18, 2026 (+49 days)Feb 18, 2026 10-K (+49 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 29, 2025 (+29 days)Oct 29, 2025 10-Q (+29 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 30, 2025 (+30 days)Jul 30, 2025 10-Q (+30 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025May 7, 2025 (+37 days)May 7, 2025 10-Q (+37 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Feb 19, 2025 (+50 days)Feb 19, 2025 10-K (+50 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 30, 2024 (+30 days)Oct 30, 2024 10-Q (+30 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 31, 2024 (+31 days)Jul 31, 2024 10-Q (+31 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024May 1, 2024 (+31 days)May 1, 2024 10-Q (+31 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Feb 22, 2024 (+53 days)Feb 22, 2024 10-K (+53 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Retail

    Online car buying

    Examples: Home delivery, car vending machines

    596,641 retail units in 2025.

  • Financing

    Auto loans

    Originated and sold to third parties.

  • Wholesale

    ADESA auction sites

    Examples: 56 locations

    16 had been built out with reconditioning capability by the end of 2025.

Figures are from the FY2025 Form 10-K.

U.S., worldwide and country/regional share of flagship products/services

Only shares the company itself states (in its filings or press releases, sometimes citing a research firm) are shown. Scope and timing vary by figure — treat these as approximate.

  • Online used vehicle retail

    U.S. used vehicle retail transactions (about 37 million in 2024, per Cox Automotive)

    U.S. share

    ~1.6%

    Company-disclosed

    Carvana's own estimate of its share; it calls itself one of the largest and fastest growing U.S. used auto retailers.

    Worldwide share

    —

    Not disclosed

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

2025–2026 developments.

  1. Tax items in 2025

    Carvana released $2.2B of its valuation allowance (total income tax benefit $2.8B) and recorded $2.2B of tax receivable agreement expense.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) MD&A

  2. Refinancing

    In August 2026 Carvana took out a $1.66B senior secured Term Loan B due 2033 to repay its 9%/11%/13% cash/PIK senior secured notes due 2030.

    Source: 8-K filed 2026-08-14

  3. Q3 2026

    Retail units rose about 39% to 217,385. Net income was just under $500M and Adjusted EBITDA about $800M (6% and 10% margins). Ally's commitment to buy finance receivables was raised to up to $8B through July 2027.

    Source: Q3 2026 shareholder letter; Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

0.53x

Below depreciation — investment is being pared back

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$147M ÷ $275M = 0.53x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$2.36B

Latest year: $160M

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $360M in FY2020 to $147M in FY2025

  • Capex
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$20.32B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+29.5%▲favorable

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($20,322M ÷ $5,587M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 29.5%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

9.3%

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$1,881M ÷ $20,322M × 100 = 9.3%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

59.9%▲favorable

6-year average: 1.2%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

3.49x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$84.40 ÷ $24.19 = 3.49x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

6.8x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($12,005M + $4,918M − $2,327M) ÷ ($1,881M + $275M) = 6.8x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▲

    Revenue grew +29.5% a year over 5 years (strong growth)

    From $5.59B in FY2020 to $20.32B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ▼

    Equity ratio is 26.1% (relatively heavy reliance on debt)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▼

    Free cash flow was positive in 3 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▼

    ROE averaged 1.2% over 6 years (latest: 59.9%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Customers buy and finance vehicles online. Carvana earns gross profit on the vehicle, on financing (by selling the loans it originates), on add-on products and on wholesale sales of acquired vehicles.

How money and goods flow at Carvana
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • Vehicles bought from consumers and auctions
    • Reconditioning capacity of about 1.5M vehicles per year
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Inspection and reconditioning
    • Online sales, hub-and-spoke delivery
    • Loan origination and sale
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Retail car buyers; dealers (wholesale)
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Retail vehicle sales $14.5B
    • Wholesale $4.1B
    • Other $1.7B

How the business makes money

  • Total gross profit per retail unit was $7,026 in 2025.
  • The wholesale marketplace transacted about 1.0M units in 2025.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Carvana says tariffs did not materially affect 2025 results.

  • Trade & export rules

    Tariffs and trade rules

    Tariffs did not materially affect 2025 results.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Inputs & resources

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Retail vehicle sales

    14,537 (72%)
  • Wholesale sales and revenues

    4,052 (20%)
  • Other sales and revenues

    1,733 (9%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — consolidated statements of operations Carvana reports one segment; these are revenue lines.

10

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

Carvana sells the loans it originates. Under its agreement with Ally, Ally committed to buy up to $4.0B of finance receivables between April 2025 and April 2026.

  • Ally Master Purchase and Sale Agreement

    Up to $4.0B of receivables

    Typical term: April 30, 2025 – April 29, 2026 (amended periodically)

    Sold without recourse for post-sale performance.

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — notes

11

Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow

Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.

  • Supply / distribution agreement

    Ally Financial

    Has bought Carvana's auto loans under a forward-flow agreement since December 2016.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — notes

  • Business partnership

    DriveTime (Garcia family)

    Related party controlled by Ernest Garcia II and III. Carvana and DriveTime have lease agreements and a cross-license agreement.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Related Party Transactions

12

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Retail used car buyers; dealers through the wholesale business.

Named by the company

No customer is named as significant.

Suppliers

Vehicles from consumers and auctions; buyers of the loans Carvana originates.

Named by the company

13

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

The 10-K names competitors in used car retail, online auto sites and automakers.

Competitors named in the 10-K

Used vehicle retail

Online auto sites

Also AutoTrader, Cars, Carfax, CarGurus, Edmunds, KBB and TrueCar. Google is part of Alphabet.

Membership programs

Automakers

Also Lucid.

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Item 1, Competition

Peer group the company chose

2025 compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

Chosen to reflect Carvana's online business model, revenue size and operational complexity.

Source: Proxy statement (DEF 14A, filed 2026-03-25)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

14

M&A historySite analysisShow

Companies acquired over the last five years, plus older large acquisitions that still anchor a current business — what each was bought to do, and what happened afterward. From the 10-K, 8-Ks, and the company's press releases.

The 2022 purchase of ADESA's U.S. physical auction business is Carvana's largest acquisition.

Cash spent on acquisitions, FY2020–FY2025: $2.36B

  1. 2022

    ADESA US Auction

    Not stated

    56 auction locations.

    Stated purpose (company)
    Increase reconditioning capacity and put inventory pools closer to customers.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Item 1

15

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Line itemFY2020In next year’s 10-KFY2021In next year’s 10-KFY2022In next year’s 10-KFY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue5,58712,81413,60410,77113,67320,322
Operating income——-2,351-809901,881
Pretax income———175400-890
Net income (attributable)-171-135-1,5874502101,407
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—129.4%6.2%-20.8%26.9%48.6%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 100——-17.3%-0.7%7.2%9.3%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100-3.1%-1.1%-11.7%4.2%1.5%6.9%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets3,0357,0158,6987,0718,48413,201
Total equity802525-5182431,3754,203
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable1,6965,3628,2126,1935,2974,918
Equity ratio12.8%4.4%-6.0%3.4%14.9%26.1%
ROE-44.1%-38.9%——27.9%59.9%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF-608-2,594-1,3248039181,036
Investing CF-346-627-2,58331-13-230
Financing CF1,1653,5283,899-868261-137
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures-968-3,151-1,836716827889
Cash and equivalents3014034345301,7162,327
Per share & other
EPS ($)-2.63-1.63-15.740.751.598.45
BVPS ($)——-4.892.139.4524.19
P/E (x)———14.125.610.0
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)———44.27.06.8
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share———4.974.303.49

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$8.04B+42.4%$714M+29.3%$289M+91.4%—
2026-06-30$7.38B+52.4%$680M+33.1%$310M+69.4%—
2026-03-31$6.43B+52.0%$581M+47.5%$250M+15.7%—
2025-12-31 †$5.6B+58.0%$424M+63.1%$857M+984.8%—
2025-09-30$5.65B$552M$151M—
2025-06-30$4.84B$511M$183M—
2025-03-31$4.23B$394M$216M—
2024-12-31 †$3.55B$260M$79M—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

16

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

23.0%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$1,881M × (1 − 3.5%) ÷ $7,897M × 100 = 23.0%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

13.77%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $12B ÷ ($12B + $4.92B) = 70.9%

e.g.Debt weight: $4.92B ÷ ($12B + $4.92B) = 29.1%

e.g.WACC: 15.5% × 70.9% + 10.0% × (1 − 3.5%) × 29.1% = 13.77%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+9.2pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 2 of 4 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 11.8%–16.0% and ROIC − WACC runs +6.9 to +11.2 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 13.77% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
1.91 (price-derived adjusted beta)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
15.45%
Cost of debt
10.00%
Tax rate
3.5% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2024)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
71% : 29%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 13.77%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 1.91 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 2.35, R² 0.26, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 2.354 + 0.33 = 1.907

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity15.45%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 1.91 × 5.5% = 15.5%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$12B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$4.92B
Cost of debt10.00%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)71% : 29%

17

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

7.2%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 13.8% − 6.6%

Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)

—

Not computable (FCF not positive in both years)

Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+29.5%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $889M (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $13.51B = market cap $10.92B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $4.92B − cash and short-term investments $2.33B; r = WACC of 13.8% using this page’s default assumptions (β 1.91, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$13.47B

FCF $889M ÷ (13.8% − 7.2%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

1.00x

Below 1x: these assumptions value the business below the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r11.8%12.8%13.8%14.8%15.8%
0%0.56x0.51x0.48x0.44x0.42x
2%0.67x0.61x0.56x0.51x0.48x
4%0.84x0.75x0.67x0.61x0.56x
6%1.13x0.97x0.84x0.75x0.67x
8%1.73x1.37x1.13x0.97x0.84x

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

18

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 2.30x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): 3.4%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 5 → 5 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-18

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding
  • Days inventory outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$1,036M ÷ $1,407M = 0.74x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($303M + $245M) ÷ 2 ÷ $20,322M × 365 = 5 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

e.g.($1,608M + $2,408M) ÷ 2 ÷ $16,130M × 365 = 45 days

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

19

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else — Class A shares, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
100%+

Reported total 102.8%

Directors & officers (shares)
4.0%

of Class A shares

Everyone else (est.)
≈0%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
33.0%

of all votes, across share classes

Institutional-ownership rank
37 of 416

1 = most institutional; 9% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
1.91

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 740.0M shares reported by 814 13F filers ÷ 719.9M Class A shares outstanding on 2026-07-27. Option positions are excluded.
  • The 13F total exceeds shares outstanding because some shares are reported twice — for example shares lent to short sellers and then bought by another manager, or holdings that overlapping managers both report.
  • Only the listed Class A shares are counted; other share classes (often held by founders) are not in this figure.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days. They hold 36% of Class B shares.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-03-25 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-27)

20

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Fast growth

    Retail units grew 43% in 2025, 38% in Q2 2026 and about 39% in Q3 2026, to 217,385.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025); Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

  2. 2. Profit turnaround

    Operating income went from −$2.35B in 2022 to $1.88B in 2025.

    Evidence: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  3. 3. Vertical integration

    Carvana owns a reconditioning network with capacity of about 1.5M vehicles per year.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Item 1

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Heavy interest costs

    Net interest expense was $505M in 2025. In August 2026 Carvana refinanced its 2030 secured cash/PIK notes with a $1.66B term loan.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025); 8-K filed 2026-08-14

  2. 2. Dependence on loan sales

    Selling finance receivables has historically produced a significant share of gross profit.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Item 1A

  3. 3. Related-party ties

    Carvana has extensive transactions with DriveTime and carries a $2.2B tax receivable agreement liability.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

21

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

10.0x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

—

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

—

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

7.4%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Growth with profits

    Management calls Carvana the fastest-growing and most profitable automotive retailer.

    What has to hold
    Execution keeps up as the company scales.
    The other side
    The 2022 operating loss of $2.35B showed how high the operating risk can be.

    Evidence: Q3 2026 shareholder letter

  2. 2. Fragmented market

    The used vehicle retail market had more than 37 million transactions in 2024, according to Cox Automotive.

    What has to hold
    Online share keeps rising.
    The other side
    Strong competitors.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025) Item 1

Carvana has an Up-C structure. Share count and book value per share use Class A shares and equity attributable to Carvana Co. 2025 pretax income includes $2.2B of tax receivable agreement expense.

22

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

11.0x

$2.33B vs. $211M

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

3.7x

$1.88B vs. $505M

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

—

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-20.8% in FY2023 ($13.6B → $10.77B)Yes, by FY2024
Operating incomeNo decline in the record—

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Cash

    $2.3B of cash at the end of 2025.

    Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL

  • Capacity

    Reconditioning capacity of about 1.5M vehicles per year.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025), Item 1

24

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
1
Med
34
2
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Funding & liquidity

    Loan sale market

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    A material decline in the volume or prices of finance receivables sold would cut a historically significant share of gross profit.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Forward-flow agreements such as Ally's.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  2. 2Competition & technology shift

    Competition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competitors include CarMax; online auto sites (Amazon, AutoTrader, CarGurus, eBay Motors, Google and others); the Costco Auto Program; and automakers such as Ford, GM, Toyota, VW, Tesla, Rivian and Lucid.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  3. 3FX & interest rates

    Interest rates

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Loan sale prices depend on the gap between the rate quoted to the customer and market rates at the time of sale.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  4. 4Governance & quality

    Controlled company

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    The Garcia Parties control Carvana, and their interests may conflict with those of other stockholders.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med

25

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (5)

  • Our use of artificial intelligence may not perform as expected and could expose us to technological, operational, legal, and reputational risks that could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations

  • We increasingly develop and deploy AI technology through third party generative AI platforms and internal software, in connection with our proprietary systems and customer experiences, including automated, self-service workflows, AI-enabled customer support tools, internal work efficiencies, and enhancement of our recruiting and hiring processes. These initiatives are complex, rapidly evolving, and inherently uncertain. There is no assurance that our AI capabilities will function as intended, deliver anticipated benefits, or scale cost-effectively. The performance, quality, and impact of AI models depend on numerous factors, including the availability and integrity of training data, model design, computational resources, integration with our operations and technology stack, and ongoing monitoring and governance. If our AI systems or those third party platforms we utilize underperform,…

  • The laws, rules, standards, and guidance relating to AI are developing rapidly and vary across jurisdictions. Read more

    We may be subject to evolving requirements regarding transparency, fairness, explainability, safety, data usage and provenance, content integrity, consumer protection, and algorithmic accountability. If we use AI in ways that regulators view as unfair, deceptive, discriminatory, or otherwise noncompliant, we could face heightened scrutiny, investigations, enforcement actions, private litigation, or requirements to modify, suspend, or cease certain AI-enabled practices. To the extent AI touches areas implicating privacy, information security, intellectual property, credit and financing, or other regulated activities, we may incur additional compliance obligations and associated costs.

  • The development and deployment of AI requires ongoing investments in talent, infrastructure, data quality, tooling, and governance frameworks. Read more

    These investments may be significant and may not result in improvements to growth, margins, or customer experience. We may need to devote additional resources to testing, monitoring, documentation, and controls to address emerging standards and mitigate model risks, including bias, fairness, and safety. If we are unable to develop, procure, integrate, or govern AI technologies effectively; if third-party AI providers or inputs are unavailable, unreliable, or more costly; if regulatory requirements materially constrain AI use; or if our AI initiatives otherwise fail to meet expectations, our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected.

  • In June 2025, we received a subpoena from the SEC requesting information that we believe primarily relates to allegations raised by a report published by a now-defunct short-selling firm. Read more

    We currently cannot predict the outcome of this matter. For more information, see Item 3. Legal Proceedings.

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2025 ↗.

26

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • Unit growth and gross profit per unit.
  • Loan sale markets and renewal of Ally's commitment.
  • Debt after the Term Loan B refinancing.
  • Progress converting ADESA sites.

27

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 17, 2026 10:07 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 18, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-18

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Carvana’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.