KabuDo

NYSE: MO · Tobacco

Altria

Altria, based in Richmond, Virginia, is the largest U.S. tobacco company: Philip Morris USA sells Marlboro and other cigarettes (Marlboro held a 40.5% U.S. cigarette retail share in 2025), U.S. Smokeless Tobacco sells Copenhagen and Skoal, Helix sells on! nicotine pouches, NJOY sells e-vapor products and John Middleton sells Black & Mild cigars. 2025 net revenues were $23,279 million (smokeable products $20,485 million, oral tobacco $2,802 million) and net income $6,947 million, after a large impairment of the e-vapor (NJOY) goodwill. It also holds equity stakes in AB InBev and Cronos. Cigarette volumes are declining (domestic shipments −10.0% in 2025), so Altria relies on price increases and its smoke-free products while paying a high dividend with a mid-single-digit growth goal through 2028. Salvatore Mancuso became CEO in May 2026.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:47 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 25, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2510-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-29Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
-2.3%

Higher than 3% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
42.5%

Higher than 93% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
+28.5 pts

Higher than 93% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.1x

Higher than 57% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
1.34x

Higher than 36% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
5 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
15.9x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
0.21

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$77.31close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$129.44B

P/E today
15.9x

At FY2025 year-end: 14.0x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
—

At FY2025 year-end: —

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
14.8x

At FY2025 year-end: 11.6x

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
7.0%

At FY2025 year-end: 9.4%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
5.4%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +1.0%$6.07B → $6.13B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↑ +0.8 pts53.2% → 54.0% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +6.0%$2.38B → $2.52B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +7.1%$1.41 → $1.51 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↑ +13.9%$2.37B → $2.7B (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt↓ −2.1%$24.58B → $24.06B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Oct 29, 2026.

Management outlook ↑ Raised

Raised 2026 full-year earnings guidance. Source sentence
Raises 2026 Full-Year Earnings Guidance

Key changes

  • Expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.66–$5.74. Source sentence
    We expect our 2026 full-year adjusted diluted EPS to be in a range of $5.66 to $5.74, representing a growth rate of 4.5% to 6.0% from a base of $5.42 in 2025.
  • Net revenues up 1.0% to $6.1B. Source sentence
    Net revenues increased 1.0% to $6.1 billion, primarily driven by higher net revenues in the smokeable products segment.
  • Repurchased 5.9M shares in Q3. Source sentence
    In the third quarter, we repurchased 5.9 million shares at an average price of $68.52 per share, for a total cost of $400 million.

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
ALTRIA GROUP, INC.
Headquarters
RICHMOND, VA
Incorporated in
Virginia
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NYSE: MO
Industry
Tobacco
CIK
764180

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    5,900

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 29–32 days after quarter end (Jan 29, 2026; Jan 30, 2025; Feb 1, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 25–32 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Oct 29, 2026 (+29 days)Oct 29, 2026 10-Q (+29 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 30, 2026 (+30 days)Jul 30, 2026 10-Q (+30 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 30, 2026 (+30 days)Apr 30, 2026 10-Q (+30 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Jan 29, 2026 (+29 days)Feb 25, 2026 10-K (+56 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 30, 2025 (+30 days)Oct 30, 2025 10-Q (+30 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 30, 2025 (+30 days)Jul 30, 2025 10-Q (+30 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025Apr 29, 2025 (+29 days)Apr 29, 2025 10-Q (+29 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Jan 30, 2025 (+30 days)Feb 26, 2025 10-K (+57 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 31, 2024 (+31 days)Oct 31, 2024 10-Q (+31 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 31, 2024 (+31 days)Jul 31, 2024 10-Q (+31 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024Apr 25, 2024 (+25 days)Apr 25, 2024 10-Q (+25 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Feb 1, 2024 (+32 days)Feb 27, 2024 10-K (+58 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Smokeable

    Cigarettes

    Marlboro and other premium and discount cigarettes from PM USA.

  • Smokeable

    Cigars

    Machine-made large cigars (Black & Mild) from Middleton; 1.8 billion units shipped in 2025.

  • Oral tobacco

    Moist smokeless tobacco

    Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal and Husky from USSTC.

  • Oral tobacco

    Nicotine pouches

    on! and on! PLUS from Helix.

  • E-vapor

    NJOY

    E-vapor products; NJOY ACE is subject to an ITC exclusion order.

From the Form 10-K, FY2025.

U.S., worldwide and country/regional share of flagship products/services

Only shares the company itself states (in its filings or press releases, sometimes citing a research firm) are shown. Scope and timing vary by figure — treat these as approximate.

  • Cigarettes

    U.S. cigarette retail share (2025)

    U.S. share

    45.2% (Marlboro 40.5%)

    Company-disclosed

    Circana/MSAi data cited in the 10-K

    Worldwide share

    —

    Not disclosed
  • Oral tobacco

    U.S. oral tobacco retail share (2025)

    U.S. share

    31.9% (Copenhagen 15.4%, on! 8.2%)

    Company-disclosed

    Circana data cited in the 10-K

    Worldwide share

    —

    Not disclosed

Sources:

Company-reported retail share.

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. CEO transition

    Salvatore Mancuso became CEO at the May 14, 2026 annual meeting, succeeding William F. Gifford, Jr.

    Source: Form 8-K (2026-05-18) — Item 5.02

  2. Buybacks

    The Board expanded the share repurchase program by $1 billion on October 28, 2026 (expires end-2027).

    Source: Form 8-K (2026-10-29) — Item 8.01

  3. on! PLUS launch

    Commercialized on! PLUS nicotine pouches in Q1 2026.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

0.81x

Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$216M ÷ $266M = 0.81x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

R&D-to-revenue ratio (FY2025)

0.8%

formularesearch & development expense ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$195M ÷ $23,279M × 100 = 0.8%

termsResearch & development (R&D) · Revenue (net sales)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$2.75B

Latest year: $0

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $231M in FY2020 to $216M in FY2025

  • Capex
  • R&D
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$23.28B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

-2.3%▼caution

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($23,279M ÷ $26,153M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = -2.3%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

42.5%

+0.9pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$9,899M ÷ $23,279M × 100 = 42.5%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

—▼caution

6-year average: 157.3%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

—

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

11.6x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($96,541M + $25,709M − $4,474M) ÷ ($9,899M + $266M) = 11.6x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▼

    Revenue grew -2.3% a year over 5 years (a shrinking trend)

    From $26.15B in FY2020 to $23.28B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ―

    Operating margin held roughly flat: 41.6% → 42.5%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +0.9 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ▼

    Equity ratio is -10.0% (relatively heavy reliance on debt)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▲

    Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 157.3% over 6 years (latest: —)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Manufactures and sells cigarettes, cigars, moist smokeless tobacco, nicotine pouches and e-vapor products to U.S. adults 21+ through wholesalers and retailers, with pricing power on premium brands offsetting falling volumes.

How money and goods flow at Altria
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • About 5,900 employees
    • Brands such as Marlboro, Copenhagen, Skoal, on!, NJOY, Black & Mild
    • Leaf tobacco and manufacturing plants
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Smokeable products (PM USA cigarettes, Middleton cigars)
    • Oral tobacco products (USSTC MST, Helix on!)
    • E-vapor products (NJOY)
    • Horizon heated tobacco JV with Japan Tobacco (75% owned)
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Wholesale distributors and large retail chains
    • U.S. adult tobacco consumers
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Smokeable products $20,485M (2025)
    • Oral tobacco products $2,802M
    • E-vapor products −$13M

How the business makes money

  • Two customers accounted for about 23% and 19% of 2025 net revenues.
  • Net revenues include excise taxes ($3,140M in 2025).
  • Stockholders’ equity is negative (deficit of $3,452M at end-2025) because of buybacks and dividends.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Altria is regulated by the FDA under the FSPTCA and pays under the Master Settlement Agreement.

  • Approvals & licenses

    FDA tobacco regulation

    The FSPTCA gives the FDA broad authority over design, marketing and sale of tobacco products.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Activities

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Regulated prices & reimbursement

    Excise taxes and MSA

    Excise tax increases and Master Settlement Agreement payments affect costs and prices.

    Constrains the businessTouches: How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Government funding & tax credits

    Transferable tax credits

    Held $419M of transferable income tax credits at end-2025.

    Supports the businessTouches: How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Smokeable products

    20,485 (88%)
  • Oral tobacco products

    2,802 (12%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Segment net revenues (incl. excise taxes); e-vapor (−$13M) and all other ($5M) omitted; total $23,279M.

10

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

11

Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow

Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.

  • Joint venture

    Japan Tobacco

    Horizon Innovations (Altria 75%, JTIUH 25%) markets heated tobacco stick products in the U.S.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Capital tie / equity stake

    Anheuser-Busch InBev

    Equity-method investment in ABI.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

12

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Wholesale distributors and retailers.

Named by the company

Two unnamed customers accounted for about 23% and 19% of 2025 net revenues.

Suppliers

Leaf tobacco and materials suppliers.

Named by the company

No material supplier is named.

13

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

Altria’s operating companies compete with other tobacco and nicotine companies, including illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products; the 10-K highlights retail share data.

Competitors named in the 10-K

No competitor list is extracted here.

Peer group the company chose

Compensation Survey Group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

2025 Compensation Survey Group from the 2026 proxy statement.

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

14

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25

Line itemFY202010-K on EDGAR ↗FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue26,15326,01325,09624,48324,01823,279
Operating income10,87311,56011,91911,54711,2419,899
Pretax income6,8903,8247,38910,92813,6589,389
Net income (attributable)4,4672,4755,7648,13011,2646,947
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—-0.5%-3.5%-2.4%-1.9%-3.1%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 10041.6%44.4%47.5%47.2%46.8%42.5%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 10017.1%9.5%23.0%33.2%46.9%29.8%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets47,41439,52336,95438,57035,17735,017
Total equity2,925-1,606-3,923-3,490-2,188-3,452
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable29,47128,04426,68026,23324,92625,709
Equity ratio6.0%-4.1%-10.8%-9.2%-6.4%-10.0%
ROE157.3%—————
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF8,3858,4058,2569,2878,7539,290
Investing CF-1431,212782-1,2832,175-341
Financing CF-5,396-10,029-9,541-8,374-11,491-7,615
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures8,1548,2368,0519,0918,6119,074
Cash and equivalents4,9454,5444,0303,6863,1274,474
Per share & other
EPS ($)2.401.343.194.576.544.12
BVPS ($)1.53-0.88-2.23-2.01-1.32-2.09
Dividend per share ($)3.403.523.683.844.004.16
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 100141.7%262.7%115.4%84.0%61.2%101.0%
P/E (x)17.135.414.38.88.014.0
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)9.09.38.67.99.611.6
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share26.84—————

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$6.13B+1.0%$3.31B+2.6%$2.52B+6.0%$1.51
2026-06-30$6.11B+0.1%$3.14B-2.9%$2.3B-3.4%$1.37
2026-03-31$5.43B+3.2%$2.96B+65.3%$2.18B+102.7%$1.30
2025-12-31 †$5.85B-2.1%$1.65B-42.7%$1.12B-63.2%—
2025-09-30$6.07B$3.23B$2.38B$1.41
2025-06-30$6.1B$3.23B$2.38B$1.41
2025-03-31$5.26B$1.79B$1.08B$0.63
2024-12-31 †$5.97B$2.88B$3.04B—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

15

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

34.1%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$9,899M × (1 − 22.5%) ÷ $22,498M × 100 = 34.1%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

5.57%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $96.54B ÷ ($96.54B + $25.71B) = 79.0%

e.g.Debt weight: $25.71B ÷ ($96.54B + $25.71B) = 21.0%

e.g.WACC: 6.1% × 79.0% + 4.6% × (1 − 22.5%) × 21.0% = 5.57%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+28.5pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 6 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 4.7%–6.8% and ROIC − WACC runs +27.3 to +29.4 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 5.57% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
0.21 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.01), so reliability is limited)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
6.11%
Cost of debt
4.58%
Tax rate
22.5% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
79% : 21%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 5.57%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 0.21 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β -0.18, R² 0.01, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × -0.180 + 0.33 = 0.210

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity6.11%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 0.21 × 5.5% = 6.1%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$96.54B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$25.71B
Cost of debt4.58%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)79% : 21%

16

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

-0.5%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 5.6% − 6.0%

Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+2.2%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)

-2.3%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $9.07B (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $150.68B = market cap $129.44B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $25.71B − cash and short-term investments $4.47B; r = WACC of 5.6% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.21, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$148.75B

FCF $9.07B ÷ (5.6% − -0.5%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

0.99x

Below 1x: these assumptions value the business below the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r3.6%4.6%5.6%6.6%7.6%
0%1.67x1.31x1.08x0.91x0.79x
2%3.76x2.32x1.67x1.31x1.08x
4%—10.04x3.76x2.32x1.67x
6%———10.04x3.76x
8%—————

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

17

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.66x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -6.7%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 105%

    Most profit comes from core operations.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 2 → 3 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-25

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding
  • Days inventory outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$9,290M ÷ $6,947M = 1.34x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

e.g.$9,899M ÷ $9,389M × 100 = 105%

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($177M + $263M) ÷ 2 ÷ $23,279M × 365 = 3 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

e.g.($1,080M + $1,070M) ÷ 2 ÷ $5,597M × 365 = 70 days

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

18

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
64.4%
Directors & officers (shares)
<1%
Everyone else (est.)
35.6%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
<1%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
397 of 416

1 = most institutional; 95% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.21

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 1,074.6M shares reported by 2,565 13F filers ÷ 1,669.7M shares outstanding on 2026-07-22. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table (percentage computed from the group’s share count ÷ shares outstanding); includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed None (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-22)

19

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Dominant brand

    Marlboro held 40.5% U.S. cigarette retail share in 2025; total Altria cigarettes 45.2%.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. High margins

    Smokeable products OCI of $10,984M on $20,485M of net revenues in 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Strong cash flow

    Operating cash flow of $9,290M in 2025 funds about $7.0B of dividends.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Declining volumes

    Domestic cigarette shipment volume fell 10.0% in 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. E-vapor setback

    E-vapor products posted an OCI loss of $2,297M in 2025, mainly the goodwill impairment; NJOY ACE is under an ITC exclusion order.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Oral share loss

    Oral tobacco retail share fell from 37.3% (2024) to 31.9% (2025).

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

20

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

14.0x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

7.21%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

101%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

9.4%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Dividend income

    Progressive dividend goal of mid-single-digit growth annually through 2028.

    What has to hold
    Pricing offsets volume declines.
    The other side
    Volumes falling 10% a year.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Smoke-free transition

    on!, NJOY and heated tobacco offer growth options.

    What has to hold
    Regulatory approvals arrive.
    The other side
    E-vapor impairment and ITC order.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Net income swings with JUUL, ABI and goodwill items (e.g. the 2021 JUUL loss, 2024 gains, 2025 e-vapor impairment).

21

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

2.9x

$4.47B vs. $1.57B

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

8.4x

$9.9B vs. $1.18B

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

1.3x

$9.07B vs. $6.96B (FCF = operating CF − capex)

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-3.5% in FY2022 ($26.01B → $25.1B)Not yet, as of FY2025
Operating income-11.9% in FY2025 ($11.24B → $9.9B)Not yet, as of FY2025

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Stable operating income

    Operating income stayed between $9.9B and $11.9B every year 2020–2025.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

23

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
12
Med
4
35
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Law & regulation

    FDA and tobacco regulation

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    FDA product standards, PMTA authorizations and state flavor bans.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  2. 2Competition & technology shift

    Illicit e-vapor and new categories

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Flavored disposable e-vapor products, which Altria believes evade regulation, take volume from cigarettes.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  3. 3Law & regulation

    Tobacco litigation

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Smoking and health cases (including Engle progeny), JUUL-related suits and antitrust class actions.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  4. 4Customer/supplier concentration

    Customer concentration

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Two customers made up about 42% of 2025 net revenues.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  5. 5Demand & macro

    Consumer income pressure

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Discretionary income pressure on adult nicotine consumers shifts demand to discount brands.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High

24

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (4)

  • products. These evolving preferences have primarily resulted in domestic cigarette industry volume declines, which have negatively impacted our business.

  • Tobacco products imported to the United States are subject to the same federal excise tax as those manufactured domestically. Read more

    Manufacturers of tobacco products imported to the United States can receive refunds of certain duties, taxes and fees paid on those products when offsetting volumes of the same or substantially similar products are subsequently exported out of the United States. The program that allows for these refunds is referred to as “duty drawback.” If PM USA is unable to realize duty drawback to the same extent as other manufacturers, we may be at a competitive disadvantage with respect to our ability to invest in the long-term growth of our core tobacco businesses and contribute to the strategic growth of our innovative nicotine product portfolio.

  • PM USA imports cigarettes manufactured outside the United States for sale domestically, and PM USA has entered into strategic commercial relationships to manufacture cigarettes in the United States for export to third parties for sale in international markets. If PM USA is unable to maintain, expand upon or enter into new relationships of this type, it may hinder PM USA’s ability to increase the efficiency of its cigarette manufacturing operations, develop capabilities needed to comply with various international product and other standards and invest in the long-term growth of our core tobacco businesses and the strategic growth of our innovative nicotine product portfolio.

  • In 2025, we recorded impairments of the values of the goodwill and other intangible assets within our e-vapor reporting unit as a result of the ITC exclusion order and cease-and-desist orders prohibiting the importation and sale of NJOY ACE into the United States and our expectation that effective enforcement against illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products would occur more gradually than initially anticipated. If we experience unfavorable outcomes with respect to litigation proceedings (including actions alleging patent infringement), the discount rate used to estimate the fair values of the goodwill and other intangible assets within our e-vapor reporting unit increases or any of the judgments or assumptions we made regarding the future state of the e-vapor category and NJOY’s business fail to materialize, we could record additional non-cash impairments of our e-vapor reporting…

No longer in the text (3)

  • The primary impacts of these conditions include higher than expected domestic cigarette industry volume declines and declines in pod-based product volume within the e-vapor category, which have negatively impacted our business.

  • reject the ITC’s decision. If the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative does not reject the ITC’s decision, the restrictions will take effect on March 31, 2025 or earlier if the Trade Representative notifies the ITC of approval before the 60 days elapse.

  • USA removed the IQOS devices, Marlboro HeatSticks and any infringing components from the marketplace. Read more

    We assigned the U.S. commercialization rights to the IQOS System to PMI in April 2024. In a separate patent lawsuit brought by JUUL, the ITC imposed similar restrictions on NJOY ACE . If the ban on the importation into the United States and the sale and marketing of NJOY ACE becomes effective, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, our valuation of NJOY’s assets and our plans with respect to the e-vapor category.

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2025 ↗.

25

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • Cigarette volume decline and pricing.
  • on! PLUS growth and FDA decisions on oral nicotine pouches.
  • NJOY ACE ITC order and e-vapor strategy.

26

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 6, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:47 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 25, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-25Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Altria’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.