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NYSE: PSX · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Phillips 66

Phillips 66, headquartered in Houston and spun off from ConocoPhillips in 2012, is an integrated downstream energy company with Midstream, Chemicals (a 50% stake in Chevron Phillips Chemical), Refining (10 refineries in the U.S. and Europe at end-2025), Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels segments. 2025 revenue was $132,376 million and net income $4,403 million (EPS $10.79). Segment pre-tax income was led by Marketing and Specialties ($4,500 million, including gains on selling 65% of its Germany and Austria retail business) and Midstream ($2,817 million), while Refining lost $274 million. In Q3 2026 earnings jumped to $5.6 billion as realized refining margins rose, and the Board added $10 billion to the buyback authorization.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 1, 2026 · Financial data fetched: November 1, 2026 09:47 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 20, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2010-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-28Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
15.6%

Higher than 83% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
—

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
—

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
1.13x

Higher than 16% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
5 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
8.3x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
0.71

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$261.65close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$104.96B

P/E today
8.3x

At FY2025 year-end: 12.0x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
3.6x

At FY2025 year-end: 1.8x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
—

At FY2025 year-end: —

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
—

At FY2025 year-end: 0.0%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
1.8%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +46.4%$34.52B → $50.54B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +4122.6%$133M → $5.62B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +4300.0%$0.32 → $14.08 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↑ +42.7%$4.1B → $5.85B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Oct 28, 2026.

Key changes

  • Returned $2.8B to shareholders. Source sentence
    Returned $2.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases
  • Total debt down $2.0B to $18.5B. Source sentence
    Decreased total debt by $2.0 billion to $18.5 billion; net debt by $3.8 billion to $12.7 billion
  • Refining utilization 98%. Source sentence
    Refining utilization of 98% with record Central Corridor processed inputs of 848 MBD

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
Phillips 66
Headquarters
HOUSTON, TX
Incorporated in
Delaware
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NYSE: PSX
Industry
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CIK
1534701

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    12,600

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 31–35 days after quarter end (Feb 4, 2026; Jan 31, 2025). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 25–36 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Oct 28, 2026 (+28 days)Oct 28, 2026 10-Q (+28 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Aug 5, 2026 (+36 days)Aug 5, 2026 10-Q (+36 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 29, 2026 (+29 days)Apr 29, 2026 10-Q (+29 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Feb 4, 2026 (+35 days)Feb 20, 2026 10-K (+51 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 29, 2025 (+29 days)Oct 29, 2025 10-Q (+29 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 25, 2025 (+25 days)Jul 28, 2025 10-Q (+28 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025Apr 25, 2025 (+25 days)Apr 25, 2025 10-Q (+25 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Jan 31, 2025 (+31 days)Feb 21, 2025 10-K (+52 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 29, 2024 (+29 days)Oct 29, 2024 10-Q (+29 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 30, 2024 (+30 days)Jul 31, 2024 10-Q (+31 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024Apr 26, 2024 (+26 days)Apr 29, 2024 10-Q (+29 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023—Feb 21, 2024 10-K (+52 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Midstream

    NGL and transportation

    Pipelines, terminals, gathering, processing and fractionation, including the Coastal Bend assets acquired in 2025.

  • Chemicals

    CPChem (50%)

    Olefins and polyolefins through Chevron Phillips Chemical.

  • Refining

    Refined products

    Gasoline, distillates and other products from 10 refineries.

  • Marketing and Specialties

    Fuel marketing and lubricants

    Wholesale and retail fuel marketing and specialty products.

  • Renewable Fuels

    Renewable diesel and SAF

    Renewable fuels produced at Rodeo and Humber.

From the Form 10-K, FY2025.

U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services

Phillips 66 does not state a market share in its 10-K.

Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. Q3 2026 results

    Q3 revenue and other income $51,506M (vs $34,979M); net income attributable to Phillips 66 $5,616M (vs $133M), driven by higher realized refining margins.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

  2. Capital return

    Repurchased $2.3B of stock in Q3 2026; quarterly dividend raised $0.06 to $1.33 in October 2026.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) — MD&A Executive Overview

  3. Western Gateway

    Joint venture and FID for a 1,300-mile pipeline linking Central Corridor and Gulf Coast refining to West Coast markets.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) — MD&A Executive Overview

R&D-to-revenue ratio (FY2025)

0.0%

formularesearch & development expense ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$6M ÷ $132,376M × 100 = 0.0%

termsResearch & development (R&D) · Revenue (net sales)

M&A spend (6-year total)

$4.69B

Latest year: $3.5B

Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M

  • R&D
  • M&A spend

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$132.38B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+15.6%▲favorable

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($132,376M ÷ $64,129M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 15.6%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

—

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

15.6%▲favorable

6-year average: 12.9%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

1.78x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$129.04 ÷ $72.53 = 1.78x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

—

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▲

    Revenue grew +15.6% a year over 5 years (strong growth)

    From $64.13B in FY2020 to $132.38B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ―

    Equity ratio is 39.5% (a middling level)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 12.9% over 6 years (latest: 15.6%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Gathers, processes and transports NGLs and crude, refines crude into fuels, markets fuels and lubricants, and holds a 50% chemicals JV.

How money and goods flow at Phillips 66
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • About 12,600 employees
    • 10 refineries in the U.S. and Europe
    • Pipelines, terminals and NGL fractionation assets
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Midstream: transportation and NGL wellhead-to-market value chain
    • Refining: crude oil processing
    • Marketing and Specialties: fuel and lubricant marketing
    • Renewable Fuels: Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex and Humber
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Wholesale and retail fuel buyers
    • Industrial and commercial customers
    • Producers using midstream services
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Revenue $132,376M (2025)
    • Segment pre-tax income: M&S $4,500M; Midstream $2,817M; Chemicals $297M; Refining −$274M; Renewable −$380M
    • Equity earnings from CPChem

How the business makes money

  • Owns 50% of CPChem and 25% of Dakota Access.
  • Idled Los Angeles Refinery being redeveloped.
  • Targets total debt of $17B by end-2027.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Phillips 66 buys tax credits and faces EPA CO2 authority and CERCLA sites.

  • Government funding & tax credits

    Purchased tax credits

    Agreed to buy eligible tax credits of $485M (2024) and $262M (2023).

    Supports the businessTouches: How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Environmental rules

    CERCLA sites

    Notified of potential CERCLA liability at 19 U.S. sites.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Activities

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Marketing and Specialties

    4,500 (65%)
  • Midstream

    2,817 (40%)
  • Chemicals

    297 (4%)
  • Refining

    -274 (-4%)
  • Renewable Fuels

    -380 (-5%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Segment income (loss) before income taxes.

10

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

11

Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow

Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.

12

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Wholesale, retail, commercial and industrial customers.

Named by the company

No single customer is named as material.

Suppliers

Crude oil, NGL and renewable feedstocks.

Named by the company

Competes with many companies for crude and feedstocks; no single supplier is named.

13

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

Phillips 66 competes with many companies for crude supplies and product outlets, and in Midstream for natural gas supplies; the 10-K does not name them.

Competitors named in the 10-K

No competitor is named in the 10-K.

Peer group the company chose

Peer groups, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

2025 compensation and performance peer groups from the 2026 proxy statement.

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

14

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Line itemFY202010-K on EDGAR ↗FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue64,129111,476169,990147,399143,153132,376
Pretax income-4,9641,74014,6399,4692,6755,420
Net income (attributable)-3,9751,31711,0247,0152,1174,403
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—73.8%52.5%-13.3%-2.9%-7.5%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100-6.2%1.2%6.5%4.8%1.5%3.3%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets54,72155,59476,44275,50172,58273,680
Total equity21,52321,63734,10631,65028,46330,241
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable15,71614,25117,15819,20819,86219,517
Equity ratio34.7%34.5%38.6%40.5%37.8%39.5%
ROE-20.9%6.9%45.3%23.4%7.3%15.6%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF2,1116,01710,8137,0294,1914,962
Investing CF-3,079-1,872-1,488-1,790-2,463-2,097
Financing CF1,791-3,470-6,388-8,092-3,305-3,537
Cash and equivalents2,5143,1476,1333,3231,7381,116
Per share & other
EPS ($)-9.062.9723.2715.484.9910.79
BVPS ($)43.4543.7363.3171.0567.1172.53
Dividend per share ($)3.603.623.834.204.504.75
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 100—121.9%16.5%27.1%90.2%44.0%
P/E (x)—24.44.58.622.812.0
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share1.611.661.641.871.701.78

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$50.54B+46.4%$5.62B+4122.6%$14.08
2026-06-30$51B+53.1%$3.85B+338.7%$9.55
2026-03-31$32.54B+6.9%$207M-57.5%$0.51
2025-12-31 †$34.11B+1.3%$2.91B+36225.0%—
2025-09-30$34.52B$133M$0.32
2025-06-30$33.32B$877M$2.15
2025-03-31$30.43B$487M$1.18
2024-12-31 †$33.69B$8M—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

15

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

Not enough data (operating income, equity, etc.) to compute ROIC/WACC.

16

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Not enough data for this calculation (FY2025): it needs positive free cash flow, a fiscal year-end P/E, and a positive enterprise value.

17

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.93x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -0.8%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 37 → 29 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-20

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding
  • Days inventory outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$4,962M ÷ $4,403M = 1.13x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($11,033M + $9,771M) ÷ 2 ÷ $132,376M × 365 = 29 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

e.g.($3,995M + $5,097M) ÷ 2 ÷ $116,093M × 365 = 14 days

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

18

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
79.7%
Directors & officers (shares)
<1%
Everyone else (est.)
20.3%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
<1%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
312 of 416

1 = most institutional; 75% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.71

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 318.1M shares reported by 2,101 13F filers ÷ 399.0M shares outstanding on 2026-06-30. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table (percentage computed from the group’s share count ÷ shares outstanding); includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-04-02 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-06-30)

19

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Diversified earnings

    Midstream earned $2.6–2.8B pre-tax each year 2023–2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Shareholder returns

    Returned $4.4B through buybacks and dividends in 9M 2026; $10B buyback increase approved July 2026.

    Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

  3. 3. Refining leverage

    Q3 2026 earnings of $5.6B on higher realized refining margins.

    Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Refining losses

    Refining lost $274M (2025) and $365M (2024) pre-tax.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Renewable losses

    Renewable Fuels lost $380M pre-tax in 2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Volatile earnings

    Net income swung from −$3,975M (2020) to $11,024M (2022) and $2,117M (2024).

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

20

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

12.0x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

3.68%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

44%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

—

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Cash return machine

    Targets returning over 50% of operating cash flow (ex working capital) to shareholders.

    What has to hold
    Margins stay healthy.
    The other side
    Cyclical refining.

    Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) — MD&A Executive Overview

  2. 2. Midstream growth

    Strategy focused on growing Midstream and Chemicals.

    What has to hold
    NGL volumes grow.
    The other side
    Capex rising above $2.5B in 2027.

    Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) — MD&A Executive Overview

21

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

1.1x

$1.12B vs. $1.04B

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

Not disclosed

The income statement has no operating income line.

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

—

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-13.3% in FY2023 ($169.99B → $147.4B)Not yet, as of FY2025

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Midstream stability

    Midstream fee-based Transportation is not directly exposed to commodity prices.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

23

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
12
Med
45
3
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Demand & macro

    Crack spreads

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Refining results depend on market crack spreads, which moved sharply in 2026 on geopolitical events.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  2. 2Geopolitics & supply chain

    Commodity disruptions

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Geopolitical events cause significant commodity price swings.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  3. 3Law & regulation

    Propel Fuels judgment

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    $833M judgment for trade secret misappropriation is on appeal; $947M accrued.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  4. 4Law & regulation

    Environmental compliance

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Refineries are implementing Clean Air Act consent decrees; a 2026 deferred prosecution agreement on Clean Water Act matters.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  5. 5Competition & technology shift

    Energy transition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competes with other industries for energy demand and for limited lower-carbon opportunities.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med

24

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (1)

  • The regulatory landscape governing cybersecurity continues to evolve, and federal, state and international authorities are increasing their oversight of cybersecurity practices, incident reporting and the protection of critical energy infrastructure. Requirements related to operational technology, supply chain security, data governance and timely disclosure of cyber incidents are becoming more prescriptive, and additional rulemaking may further expand our compliance obligations. As cyber threats targeting the energy sector grow in frequency and sophistication, we are required to devote additional resources to maintain and enhance our cybersecurity programs and controls. Failure to comply with applicable cybersecurity laws and regulations, or to effectively identify, prevent or respond to a cyber event, could result in operational disruptions, increased costs, regulatory enforcement…

No longer in the text (3)

  • The GDPR applies to the transfer and processing of personal data of those who live in the EU or UK, respectively. Read more

    As interpretation and enforcement of the GDPR evolves, it creates a range of new compliance obligations, which could cause us to incur additional costs. Failure to comply could result in significant penalties that may materially adversely affect our business, reputation, results of operations and cash flows.

  • The CCPA, which came into effect on January 1, 2020, gives California residents specific rights in relation to their personal information, requires that companies take certain actions, including notifications for security incidents and may apply to activities regarding personal information that is collected by us, directly or indirectly, from California residents. As interpretation and enforcement of the CCPA evolves, it creates a range of new compliance obligations, with the possibility for significant financial penalties for noncompliance that may materially adversely affect our business, reputation, results of operations and cash flows.

  • Comprehensive privacy laws with some similarities to the CCPA have been proposed or passed at the U.S. Read more

    federal and state levels, such as the Colorado Privacy Act. Additionally, the Federal Trade Commission and many state attorneys general are interpreting federal and state consumer protection laws to impose standards for the online collection, use, dissemination and security of data as well as requiring disclosures about these practices. Existing and potential future data privacy laws pose increasingly complex compliance challenges and potentially elevate our costs. Any failure by us to comply with these laws and regulations, including as a result of a security or privacy breach, could result in significant penalties and liabilities for us. Additionally, if we acquire a company that has violated or is not in compliance with applicable data protection laws, we may incur significant…

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 21, 2025 ↗.

25

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • Refining margins.
  • Propel Fuels appeal.
  • Western Gateway pipeline and 2027 capex.

26

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: November 1, 2026 · Financial data fetched: November 1, 2026 09:47 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 20, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-20Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Phillips 66’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.