KabuDo

NASDAQ: MSFT · Systems Software

Microsoft

Microsoft, based in Redmond, Washington, sells software, cloud services, devices and games. In fiscal 2026 (year ended June 30, 2026) revenue rose 18% to $331,839 million across three segments: Productivity and Business Processes (Microsoft 365, LinkedIn, Dynamics; $139,996 million), Intelligent Cloud (Azure, server products; $137,791 million, up 30% with Azure and other cloud services up 41%) and More Personal Computing (Windows, Xbox, search advertising; $54,052 million). Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $214.4 billion and commercial remaining performance obligation grew 84% to $678 billion. Net income was $133,749 million, including $5.0 billion of net gains from its investments in OpenAI, its long-term strategic partner. Capital spending more than doubled in two years to $115,948 million as Microsoft builds AI datacenters. It acquired Activision Blizzard for $75.4 billion in 2023 and employs about 223,000 people.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 30, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:59 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: July 29, 2026

Built on10-K FY2026 · filed 2026-07-2910-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-28Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2027’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
14.6%

Higher than 80% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
46.8%

Higher than 95% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2026)

ROIC minus WACC
+18.2 pts

Higher than 85% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.2x

Higher than 19% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
1.37x

Higher than 39% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
5 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
28.9x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
1.10

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$554.35close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$4,117.16B

P/E today
28.9x

At FY2026 year-end: 20.8x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
9.3x

At FY2026 year-end: 6.3x

Book value at FY2026 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
21.5x

At FY2026 year-end: 14.7x

EBITDA for FY2026

FCF yield today
1.6%

At FY2026 year-end: 2.4%

Free cash flow for FY2026

Dividend yield today
0.7%

Dividends per share for FY2026

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +18.8%$77.67B → $92.28B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↑ +0.9 pts48.9% → 49.8% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +32.0%$27.75B → $36.63B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +32.3%$3.72 → $4.92 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↓ −3.1%$20.94B → $20.28B (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt↓ −11.9%$40.29B → $35.48B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Oct 28, 2026.

Key changes

  • Q1 revenue $92.3B, up 19%. Source sentence
    Revenue was $92.3 billion and increased 19%
  • Operating income $45.9B, up 21%. Source sentence
    Operating income was $45.9 billion and increased 21% (up 22% in constant currency)
  • Commercial RPO up 73% to $677B. Source sentence
    Commercial remaining performance obligation increased 73% to $677 billion

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
MICROSOFT CORP
Headquarters
REDMOND, WA
Incorporated in
Washington
Fiscal year end
06/30
Exchange & ticker
NASDAQ: MSFT
Industry
Systems Software
CIK
789019

Workforce (as of FY2026 year-end)

  • Employees

    223,000

Source: Form 10-K (FY2026) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q2 FY2027

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q2 results were released 28–30 days after quarter end (Jan 28, 2026; Jan 29, 2025; Jan 30, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around June 30.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 25–30 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q1 FY2027Sep 30, 2026Oct 28, 2026 (+28 days)Oct 28, 2026 10-Q (+28 days)
Q4 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 29, 2026 (+29 days)Jul 29, 2026 10-K (+29 days)
Q3 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 29, 2026 (+29 days)Apr 29, 2026 10-Q (+29 days)
Q2 FY2026Dec 31, 2025Jan 28, 2026 (+28 days)Jan 28, 2026 10-Q (+28 days)
Q1 FY2026Sep 30, 2025Oct 29, 2025 (+29 days)Oct 29, 2025 10-Q (+29 days)
Q4 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 30, 2025 (+30 days)Jul 30, 2025 10-K (+30 days)
Q3 FY2025Mar 31, 2025Apr 30, 2025 (+30 days)Apr 30, 2025 10-Q (+30 days)
Q2 FY2025Dec 31, 2024Jan 29, 2025 (+29 days)Jan 29, 2025 10-Q (+29 days)
Q1 FY2025Sep 30, 2024Oct 30, 2024 (+30 days)Oct 30, 2024 10-Q (+30 days)
Q4 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 30, 2024 (+30 days)Jul 30, 2024 10-K (+30 days)
Q3 FY2024Mar 31, 2024Apr 25, 2024 (+25 days)Apr 25, 2024 10-Q (+25 days)
Q2 FY2024Dec 31, 2023Jan 30, 2024 (+30 days)Jan 30, 2024 10-Q (+30 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Productivity and Business Processes

    Microsoft 365 and Copilot

    Commercial and consumer productivity subscriptions; M365 commercial cloud revenue +17%.

  • Productivity and Business Processes

    LinkedIn and Dynamics

    Professional network and business applications.

  • Intelligent Cloud

    Azure

    Cloud infrastructure and AI services; Azure and other cloud services revenue +41%.

  • More Personal Computing

    Windows, Xbox and search

    Windows OEM and devices, Xbox content and services (incl. Activision Blizzard), and search advertising.

From the Form 10-K, FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30.

U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services

Microsoft does not state market share percentages in its 10-K.

Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. Segment recast

    Microsoft recast prior amounts in October 2026 to reflect new segment reporting.

    Source: Form 8-K (2026-10-28) — Item 8.01 (segment recast)

  2. OpenAI partnership

    Net gains from OpenAI investments added $5.0B ($0.67 per share) to fiscal 2026 net income.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

  3. AI infrastructure

    Capital expenditures of $115.9B in fiscal 2026, primarily datacenters.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2026)

3.38x

Well above depreciation — expansion-stage investment

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$115,948M ÷ $34,300M = 3.38x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

R&D-to-revenue ratio (FY2026)

10.7%

formularesearch & development expense ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$35,562M ÷ $331,839M × 100 = 10.7%

termsResearch & development (R&D) · Revenue (net sales)

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $20.62B in FY2021 to $115.95B in FY2026

  • Capex
  • R&D

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-07-29

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2021–FY2026, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2026)

$331.84B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+14.6%▲favorable

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($331,839M ÷ $168,088M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 14.6%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2026)

46.8%▲favorable

+5.2pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$155,237M ÷ $331,839M × 100 = 46.8%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2026)

34.0%▲favorable

6-year average: 38.9%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2026 end)

6.26x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$373.02 ÷ $59.56 = 6.26x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2026 end)

14.7x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($2,770,420M + $40,294M − $20,935M) ÷ ($155,237M + $34,300M) = 14.7x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ▲

    Revenue grew +14.6% a year over 5 years (strong growth)

    From $168.09B in FY2021 to $331.84B in FY2026. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ▲

    Operating margin improved: 41.6% → 46.8%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +5.2 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ▲

    Equity ratio is 58.3% (a high level of financial stability)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▲

    Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 38.9% over 6 years (latest: 34.0%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Sells cloud subscriptions (Azure, Microsoft 365, Dynamics), software licenses, LinkedIn, search advertising, Windows licenses to OEMs, and gaming content and hardware, investing heavily in datacenters and AI.

How money and goods flow at Microsoft
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • About 223,000 employees (77,000 in R&D)
    • Global datacenter network
    • Strategic partnership with OpenAI
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Productivity and Business Processes: Microsoft 365, LinkedIn, Dynamics
    • Intelligent Cloud: Azure, server products, enterprise services
    • More Personal Computing: Windows, devices, Xbox, search and news advertising
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • Enterprises and governments
    • Consumers and gamers
    • OEMs and advertisers
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Productivity and Business Processes $139,996M (FY2026)
    • Intelligent Cloud $137,791M
    • More Personal Computing $54,052M

How the business makes money

  • Microsoft Cloud revenue $214.4B (+27%).
  • Commercial remaining performance obligation $678B (+84%).
  • U.S. revenue $170,794M; other countries $161,045M.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Microsoft earns substantial revenue from governments and is subject to trade rules.

  • Government as customer

    Government contracts

    Derives substantial revenue from government contracts.

    Supports and constrainsTouches: Customers · How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026)

  • Trade & export rules

    Export controls and sanctions

    Subject to trade controls and cooperates with law-enforcement investigations.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Customers

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026)

Revenue by segment (FY2026)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Productivity and Business Processes

    139,996 (42%)
  • Intelligent Cloud

    137,791 (42%)
  • More Personal Computing

    54,052 (16%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30) Segment revenue for fiscal 2026 (year ended June 30, 2026); segments were recast in October 2026.

10

Where it earnsSite analysis

Many U.S.-listed companies earn most of their revenue outside the U.S. — this breaks down revenue by country/region so it's clear where the business actually makes its money.

Largest market (FY2026)

United States — 51% of revenue

Revenue by country / region (FY2026)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • United States

    170,794 (51%)
  • Other countries

    161,045 (49%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30) Revenue by geography; U.S. includes certain OEM and multinational billings.

11

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

12

Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow

Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.

13

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

Enterprises, governments, consumers, OEMs and advertisers.

Named by the company

No customer concentration is disclosed.

Suppliers

Hardware, chip and datacenter suppliers.

Named by the company

No material supplier is named here.

14

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

Microsoft describes competition by product area (hyperscalers, security vendors, console platforms, search engines, etc.) but does not name companies in the 10-K.

Competitors named in the 10-K

No competitor is named in the 10-K.

Peer group the company chose

Compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

Peer group from the 2026 proxy statement.

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

15

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-07-29

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-07-29

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-07-29

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-07-29

Line itemFY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗FY202610-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue168,088198,270211,915245,122281,724331,839
Operating income69,91683,38388,523109,433128,528155,237
Pretax income71,10283,71689,311107,787123,627165,934
Net income (attributable)61,27172,73872,36188,136101,832133,749
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—18.0%6.9%15.7%14.9%17.8%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 10041.6%42.1%41.8%44.6%45.6%46.8%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 10036.5%36.7%34.1%36.0%36.1%40.3%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets333,779364,840411,976512,163619,003758,376
Total equity141,988166,542206,223268,477343,479442,387
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable58,14649,78147,23751,63043,15140,294
Equity ratio42.5%45.6%50.1%52.4%55.5%58.3%
ROE43.2%47.2%38.8%37.1%33.3%34.0%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF76,74089,03587,582118,548136,162182,935
Investing CF-27,577-30,311-22,680-96,970-72,599-139,500
Financing CF-48,486-58,876-43,935-37,757-51,699-52,546
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures56,11865,14959,47574,07171,61166,987
Cash and equivalents14,22413,93134,70418,31530,24220,935
Per share & other
EPS ($)8.059.659.6811.8013.6417.95
BVPS ($)18.8822.3127.7536.1146.2059.56
Dividend per share ($)2.242.482.723.003.323.64
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 10027.8%25.7%28.1%25.4%24.3%20.3%
P/E (x)33.726.635.237.936.520.8
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)26.320.325.626.924.714.7
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share14.3511.5112.2712.3810.776.26

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$92.28B+18.8%$45.92B+21.0%$36.63B+32.0%$4.92
2026-06-30 †$90.01B+17.7%$40.6B+18.3%$35.77B+31.3%—
2026-03-31$82.89B+18.3%$38.4B+20.0%$31.78B+23.1%$4.27
2025-12-31$81.27B+16.7%$38.28B+20.9%$38.46B+59.5%$5.16
2025-09-30$77.67B$37.96B$27.75B$3.72
2025-06-30 †$76.44B$34.32B$27.23B—
2025-03-31$70.07B$32B$25.82B$3.46
2024-12-31$69.63B$31.65B$24.11B$3.23

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

16

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2026)

29.1%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$155,237M × (1 − 18.5%) ÷ $434,656M × 100 = 29.1%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

10.93%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $2,770.42B ÷ ($2,770.42B + $40.29B) = 98.6%

e.g.Debt weight: $40.29B ÷ ($2,770.42B + $40.29B) = 1.4%

e.g.WACC: 11.0% × 98.6% + 7.6% × (1 − 18.5%) × 1.4% = 10.93%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+18.2pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 6 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 9.0%–13.3% and ROIC − WACC runs +15.8 to +20.1 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 10.93% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
1.10 (price-derived adjusted beta)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
11.00%
Cost of debt
7.57%
Tax rate
18.5% (effective rate, FY2024–FY2026)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
99% : 1%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 10.93%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 1.10 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 1.15, R² 0.33, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 1.145 + 0.33 = 1.097

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity11.00%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 1.1 × 5.5% = 11.0%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$2,770.42B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$40.29B
Cost of debt7.57%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)99% : 1%

17

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

9.3%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 10.9% − 1.6%

Past FCF growth (FY2021–FY2026)

+3.6%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Past revenue growth (FY2021–FY2026)

+14.6%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Inputs (FY2026): free cash flow $66.99B (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $4,080.61B = market cap $4,117.16B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $40.29B − cash and short-term investments $76.84B; r = WACC of 10.9% using this page’s default assumptions (β 1.10, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$4,186.69B

FCF $66.99B ÷ (10.9% − 9.3%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

1.03x

Above 1x: these assumptions value the business above the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r8.9%9.9%10.9%11.9%12.9%
0%0.18x0.17x0.15x0.14x0.13x
2%0.24x0.21x0.18x0.17x0.15x
4%0.34x0.28x0.24x0.21x0.18x
6%0.57x0.42x0.34x0.28x0.24x
8%1.82x0.86x0.57x0.42x0.34x

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

18

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.29x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -7.1%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 94%

    Most profit comes from core operations.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 83 → 83 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-07-29

Profit bridge (FY2026)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-07-29

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding
  • Days inventory outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$182,935M ÷ $133,749M = 1.37x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

e.g.$155,237M ÷ $165,934M × 100 = 94%

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($69,905M + $80,876M) ÷ 2 ÷ $331,839M × 365 = 83 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

e.g.($938M + $1,397M) ÷ 2 ÷ $106,374M × 365 = 4 days

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

19

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
74.1%
Directors & officers (shares)
<1%
Everyone else (est.)
25.9%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
<1%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
361 of 416

1 = most institutional; 87% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
1.10

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 5,502.7M shares reported by 6,215 13F filers ÷ 7,425.5M shares outstanding on 2026-07-23. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-10-21 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-K cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-23)

20

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Cloud scale

    Microsoft Cloud revenue of $214.4B in fiscal 2026.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

  2. 2. Huge backlog

    Commercial remaining performance obligation of $678B, up 84%.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

  3. 3. Profitability

    Operating income of $155,237M on $331,839M of revenue (47%) in fiscal 2026.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Soaring capex

    Capital expenditures rose from $44.5B (FY2024) to $115.9B (FY2026).

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

  2. 2. Consumer softness

    More Personal Computing revenue fell 1% and Xbox content and services fell 5% in fiscal 2026.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

  3. 3. OpenAI-linked earnings volatility

    Net income swung from a $3.6B OpenAI-related reduction in FY2025 to a $5.0B gain in FY2026.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

21

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2026)

20.8x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2026)

0.98%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2026)

20%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2026)

2.4%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. AI and cloud leadership

    Azure and Microsoft 365 benefit from AI demand.

    What has to hold
    AI spending persists.
    The other side
    Heavy capex.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

  2. 2. Recurring revenue

    Large subscription base and $678B RPO.

    What has to hold
    Customers keep renewing.
    The other side
    Competition.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

Fiscal years end June 30 (FY2026 = year ended June 30, 2026).

22

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2026)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

8.3x

$76.84B vs. $9.23B

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

50.9x

$155.24B vs. $3.05B

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

2.5x

$66.99B vs. $26.45B (FCF = operating CF − capex)

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
RevenueNo decline in the record—
Operating incomeNo decline in the record—

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2021–FY2026), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Consistent growth

    Revenue and operating income rose every fiscal year 2021–2026.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2026, year ended 2026-06-30)

24

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
345
1
Med
2
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Competition & technology shift

    AI competition

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competes with hyperscalers, open-source offerings and frontier model providers, some of them partners.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood High
  2. 2Law & regulation

    Antitrust and privacy

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Competition and data protection scrutiny worldwide, e.g. the IDPC GDPR decision against LinkedIn.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood High
  3. 3Law & regulation

    Tax dispute

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    IRS NOPAs seek $28.9B plus penalties and interest for 2004–2013.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  4. 4Demand & macro

    AI capacity investment

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Returns on very large datacenter spending depend on AI demand.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  5. 5Information security

    Cybersecurity

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Attacks on Microsoft’s cloud and products.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    We operate a cybersecurity program and governance framework designed to protect our computing environments against cybersecurity threats, and we have controls, policies, and procedures to identify, manage, and mitigate cybersecurity threats.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med

25

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (8)

  • Our cloud and AI strategy requires substantial investments and depends on evolving customer demand, technological developments, competitive dynamics, and regulatory conditions, any of which could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. We have made and are continuing to make significant capital and operational investments to develop, train, deploy, and support AI models and related cloud-based services, including building and expanding datacenters, acquiring necessary components, and securing energy resources. These investments are being made at significant scale and on an accelerated timeline, require substantial and increasing capital expenditures and continued access to capital, and are in advance of fully developed revenue streams. The associated revenue may not be realized in the expected timeframes or at expected levels. Our capital and…

  • Demand for cloud-based and AI products and services is evolving and difficult to forecast. Read more

    Overestimation of demand or misalignment of capacity investments may result in underutilization of infrastructure and may lead to impairment of assets on our balance sheet. Conversely, demand exceeding available capacity limits our ability to meet customer needs in a timely manner.

  • The cost structure for AI products and services is subject to significant uncertainty, including with respect to model training and inference costs, the availability and pricing of components, and energy costs. Read more

    If these costs increase, remain elevated, or fail to decline, or if pricing for AI products and services declines as a result of competition, commoditization, or other market forces, our margins, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected.

  • Our AI strategy also depends in part on strategic relationships with third parties that provide technologies, models, products, and services that enhance our offerings. Read more

    These relationships may change over time, and many of these partners compete with us with respect to certain products and services. Changes in strategic priorities, contractual arrangements, our access to third-party technologies, or key commercial relationships could adversely affect the competitiveness of our AI products and services. In some cases, these parties are significant customers of Azure and other cloud services. The economic benefits we expect to derive from these relationships, including through commercial arrangements, technology access, and Azure consumption, may not be realized or sustained. As we manage infrastructure capacity constraints and evolving customer demand, we may modify capacity allocations,…

  • Our success depends on our ability to develop, deliver, and maintain competitive cloud-based and AI products and services that achieve broad customer adoption and sustainable revenue growth. Read more

    Our ability to succeed depends on our ability to develop and deliver differentiated products and services that meet evolving customer needs, achieve broad adoption, maintain customer trust, and generate sustainable revenue and growth. The markets for cloud-based and AI products and services are highly dynamic, characterized by shifting customer expectations, increasing regulatory and governmental scrutiny, intense competition, and rapid technological change, such as the accelerating importance of agentic computing. Whether we succeed in cloud-based and AI products and services depends on our execution in several areas, including:

  • Our cloud-based and AI products and services may be misused by customers, users, or malicious actors for unintended, fraudulent, abusive, or unlawful purposes. Read more

    Our efforts to detect, prevent, and mitigate such misuse may not be successful, which could result in reputational harm, regulatory scrutiny, service disruptions, or adverse impacts on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

  • The availability, reliability, and cost of electrical power are critical to the operation and expansion of our datacenters. Read more

    In many regions, electricity generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure is experiencing increasing demand and capacity constraints. Limitations in power availability, delays in obtaining power connections, outages, shortages, increased energy costs, or requirements imposed by utilities, regulators, or other market participants could restrict our ability to develop or expand datacenter capacity. In addition, alternative energy sources and other emerging solutions may not be available in sufficient quantities, may not timely scale to meet our requirements, or may be available only at higher costs. If we are unable to secure adequate power resources on commercially reasonable terms, our ability to support customer demand and execute our growth strategy…

  • Our ability to develop additional capacity is also subject to land availability, zoning restrictions, environmental reviews, permitting requirements, and other regulatory approvals. Read more

    Changes in governmental policies, permitting processes, environmental regulations, sustainability requirements, building standards, energy regulations, or other factors beyond our control may delay projects, restrict development opportunities, impose additional compliance obligations, or increase costs. We also face community opposition, state and local moratoriums, and hyper-local dissent, as well as increasingly coordinated opposition to infrastructure development across jurisdictions, including through the involvement or influence of elected officials, policymakers, and advocacy groups. Our failure to navigate successfully any of these challenges may delay projects, restrict development opportunities,…

No longer in the text (3)

  • Our focus on cloud-based and AI services presents execution and competitive risks. Read more

    We are incurring significant costs to build and maintain infrastructure to support cloud-based and AI services, reducing operating margins. Whether we succeed in cloud-based and AI services depends on our execution in several areas, including:

  • Our AI systems offer users powerful tools and capabilities. However, there may be instances where these systems are used in ways that are unintended or inappropriate. Read more

    In addition, some users may also engage in fraudulent or abusive activities through our cloud-based and AI services, such as unauthorized account access, payment fraud, or terms of service violations including cryptocurrency mining or launching cyberattacks. While we are committed to detecting and controlling such misuse of our cloud-based and AI services, our efforts may not be effective, and we may incur reputational damage or experience adverse impacts to our business and results of operations.

  • Changes in the law may continue to weaken our ability to prevent the use of patented technology. Read more

    Our increasing engagement with open source software will also cause us to license our intellectual property rights broadly in certain situations. If we are unable to protect our intellectual property, our results of operations could be adversely affected.

4 more paragraphs differ; the filings below have the full text.

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Jul 29, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Jul 30, 2025 ↗.

26

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • Azure growth versus capex.
  • Copilot monetization.
  • IRS transfer-pricing dispute.

27

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 30, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 12:59 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: July 29, 2026

Built on10-K FY2026 · filed 2026-07-29Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2027’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Microsoft’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.