NYSE: PKG · Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Packaging Corporation of America
Packaging Corporation of America (PCA), based in Lake Forest, Illinois, is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America. Its Packaging segment ($8,294 million, 92% of 2025 revenue) runs containerboard mills that mostly supply its own corrugated products plants, which make boxes for food, beverage, retail and industrial customers within regional markets; its Paper segment ($615 million) sells office and printing papers, with ODP (Office Depot) its largest paper customer. On September 2, 2025 PCA bought Greif’s containerboard business (two mills with about 800,000 tons of capacity and eight plants) for $1.8 billion in cash, lifting debt to about $4.0 billion. 2025 revenue was $8,989 million and net income $774 million. Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose to $2,490 million, but net income fell to $192 million. PCA pays a $1.50 quarterly dividend. It is a defendant in a 2025 containerboard antitrust class action.
Last updated
Analysis last edited: October 31, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 31, 2026 02:26 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 26, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-2610-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-11-05Proxy statement (2026)
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
01
At a glanceFrom SEC data
Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.
- Revenue growthCAGRSmooths out year-to-year swings into "grew X% a year on average." Makes growth pace comparable across companies of very different sizes.
- 6.2%
- Operating marginOperating marginHow many cents of operating profit are left per dollar of revenue. Reflects pricing power and cost structure.
- 12.3%
- ROIC minus WACCROIC − WACC spreadThe difference between ROIC and WACC. Consistently positive implies value creation; consistently negative implies value destruction.
- +2.9 pts
- Net debt ÷ EBITDAEBITDAOperating income with D&A added back. A rough proxy for cash-generating power that’s less distorted by capital intensity, depreciation method, or financing/tax differences than net income.
- 1.9x
- Cash conversionOperating CF ÷ net income (cash conversion)How much of reported profit shows up as actual cash. 1x or higher means profit is backed by cash.
- 2.01x
- Dividend raisesDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year).
- 0 of 5
- P/E todayP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing.
- 31.7x
- Betaβ (beta)How much a stock moves, on average, for a 1% move in the overall market. Above 1 means more volatile than the market, which raises the return shareholders require. This site computes it from about 2.5 years (roughly 130 weeks) of weekly returns, built from Yahoo Finance daily prices, regressed against an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy, then applies the well-known long-run mean-reversion adjustment (0.67 × β + 0.33) as the WACC default.
- 0.70
Higher than 34% of 372 non-financial companies
Average yearly growth over the years shown
Higher than 31% of 311 non-financial companies
Latest fiscal year (FY2025)
Higher than 48% of 311 non-financial companies
Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost
Higher than 52% of 304 non-financial companies
Below 0 means more cash than debt
Higher than 74% of 349 non-financial companies
Operating cash flow ÷ net income
Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5
Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
Above 1 = moves more than the market
Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.
02
Valuation todayFrom SEC data
Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.
Share price$258.03close on 2026-11-04
Market cap$23.02B
- P/EP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing. today
- 31.7x
- P/BP/BShare price ÷ book value per share. Below 1x means the market values the company below its accounting net worth. This site uses the closing price nearest the fiscal year-end and highlights sub-1x readings. today
- 5.0x
- EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDAEnterprise value (≈ market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash) as a multiple of EBITDA — roughly, "how many years of EBITDA to buy the whole company." Lower is generally viewed as cheaper, and it’s more comparable than P/E across companies with different debt loads or depreciation policies. This site excludes noncontrolling interests from the EV calculation. today
- 15.0x
- FCF yieldFree cash flow (FCF)Operating CF minus capital expenditures — cash generated by the business after funding its own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. Acquisitions and securities purchases (also in investing CF) are not subtracted, so FCF can be positive in a year when total investing CF exceeds operating CF. today
- 3.2%
- Dividend yieldDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year). today
- 1.9%
At FY2025 year-end: 24.0x
Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
At FY2025 year-end: 4.0x
Book value at FY2025 year-end
At FY2025 year-end: 12.4x
EBITDA for FY2025
At FY2025 year-end: 4.0%
Free cash flow for FY2025
Dividends per share for FY2025
“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
03
What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data
The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.
- Revenue$2.31B → $2.6B (vs. a year earlier)↑ +12.5%$2.31B → $2.6B (vs. a year earlier)
- Operating margin14.0% → 14.8% (vs. a year earlier)↑ +0.8 pts14.0% → 14.8% (vs. a year earlier)
- Net income$227M → $262M (vs. a year earlier)↑ +15.6%$227M → $262M (vs. a year earlier)
- Diluted EPS$2.51 → $2.93 (vs. a year earlier)↑ +16.7%$2.51 → $2.93 (vs. a year earlier)
- Cash$443M → $535M (vs. previous quarter-end)↑ +20.7%$443M → $535M (vs. previous quarter-end)
- Long-term debt$3.97B → $3.97B (vs. previous quarter-end)→ +0.0%$3.97B → $3.97B (vs. previous quarter-end)
Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.
From the earnings release of Oct 22, 2026.
Management outlook • Issued
Expects Q4 earnings of $2.81 per share, excluding special items. Source sentence
Considering these items, we expect fourth quarter earnings of $2.81 per share, excluding special items.”
Key changes
Corrugated shipments down 0.5% per day. Source sentence
In the legacy packaging business, corrugated products shipments were down 0.5% per day and in total compared to the third quarter of 2025, with the same number of shipping days in each period.
Paper volume down 2.5%. Source sentence
In the Paper segment, sales volume was down 2.5% from the third quarter of 2025.
Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗
04
Company profileFrom SEC dataShow
- Legal name
- PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA
- Headquarters
- LAKE FOREST, IL
- Fiscal year end
- 12/31
- Exchange & ticker
- NYSE: PKG
- Industry
- Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
- CIK
- 75677
Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)
Employees
16,800
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description
05
Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow
When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.
Next report
Q4 FY2026
Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 25–29 days after quarter end (Jan 28, 2026; Jan 29, 2025; Jan 25, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.
Reporting pattern
- Fiscal year ends around December 31.
- Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
- Earnings releases came 22–29 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
| Quarter | Quarter ended | Earnings release (8-K) | Report filed (10-Q / 10-K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Oct 22, 2026 (+22 days) | Nov 5, 2026 10-Q (+36 days) |
| Q2 FY2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Jul 23, 2026 (+23 days) | Aug 7, 2026 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q1 FY2026 | Mar 31, 2026 | Apr 23, 2026 (+23 days) | May 8, 2026 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q4 FY2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | Jan 28, 2026 (+28 days) | Feb 26, 2026 10-K (+57 days) |
| Q3 FY2025 | Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 23, 2025 (+23 days) | Nov 6, 2025 10-Q (+37 days) |
| Q2 FY2025 | Jun 30, 2025 | Jul 24, 2025 (+24 days) | Aug 7, 2025 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q1 FY2025 | Mar 31, 2025 | Apr 23, 2025 (+23 days) | May 8, 2025 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q4 FY2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Jan 29, 2025 (+29 days) | Feb 27, 2025 10-K (+58 days) |
| Q3 FY2024 | Sep 30, 2024 | Oct 23, 2024 (+23 days) | Nov 7, 2024 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q2 FY2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Jul 24, 2024 (+24 days) | Aug 8, 2024 10-Q (+39 days) |
| Q1 FY2024 | Mar 31, 2024 | Apr 23, 2024 (+23 days) | May 8, 2024 10-Q (+38 days) |
| Q4 FY2023 | Dec 31, 2023 | Jan 25, 2024 (+25 days) | Feb 29, 2024 10-K (+60 days) |
Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.
06
Flagship products & servicesSite analysis
Packaging
Corrugated products
Boxes, displays and protective packaging made in 91 plants, sold mainly to regional and local accounts.
Packaging
Containerboard
Linerboard and corrugating medium, mostly used internally.
Paper
Uncoated freesheet
Office and printing papers; ODP is the largest customer.
From the Form 10-K, FY2025.
U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services
PCA calls itself the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading UFS producer in North America but gives no market-share percentages.
Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
07
Recent strategic focusSite analysis
Recent developments.
Second quarter 2026
Revenue $2,490M versus $2,171M; net income $192M ($2.15 per share) versus $242M ($2.67).
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
Dividend
Quarterly dividend $1.50 per share in 2026 versus $1.25 a year earlier.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
Greif acquisition
Completed September 2, 2025 for $1.8B cash.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)
1.27x
Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
e.g.$829M ÷ $653M = 1.27x
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
M&A spend (6-year total)
$2B
Latest year: $1.8B
Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired
Where the money goes, over time
Unit: $M. Capex went from $421M in FY2020 to $829M in FY2025
- Capex
- R&D
- M&A spend
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-26
08
Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data
FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.
Revenue (FY2025)
$8.99B
As reported in the 10-K
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
+6.2%▲favorable
formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1
e.g.($8,989M ÷ $6,658M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 6.2%
termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)
Operating margin (FY2025)
12.3%▲favorable
+1.4pt vs. 5 years ago
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
e.g.$1,107M ÷ $8,989M × 100 = 12.3%
ROE (FY2025)
17.2%▲favorable
6-year average: 20.6%
As reported in the 10-K
P/B (FY2025 end)
4.00x
formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share
e.g.$206.23 ÷ $51.55 = 4.00x
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B
EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)
12.4x
formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)
e.g.($18,396M + $3,993M − $529M) ÷ ($1,107M + $653M) = 12.4x
termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple
- ▲
Revenue grew +6.2% a year over 5 years (strong growth)
From $6.66B in FY2020 to $8.99B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.
- ▲
Operating margin improved: 10.9% → 12.3%
How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved +1.4 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.
- ―
Equity ratio is 42.9% (a middling level)
The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).
- ▲
Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.
- ▲
ROE averaged 20.6% over 6 years (latest: 17.2%)
How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.
09
Business modelSite analysis
Business Model Canvas
The whole company in nine blocks. Left side: how it delivers (partners, activities, resources, costs). Right side: who it serves and how it earns. Every entry comes from the company’s filings shown on this page.
08 · who helps
Key partners
- Greif, Inc. (containerboard business)
07 · what it does
Key activities
- Containerboard production
- Corrugated box manufacturing
- Uncoated freesheet paper production
06 · what it draws on
Key resources
- About 16,800 employees (Dec 31, 2025)
- Ten mills and 91 corrugated products plants
- Wood fiber and recycled fiber
02 · why customers buy
Value propositions
- Containerboard from its own mills converted into corrugated boxes nearby.
04 · how it keeps them
Customer relationships
- Ongoing supply relationships with packaging customers.
03 · how it reaches them
Channels
- Direct sales to regional and national customers.
01 · who it serves
Customer segments
- Food, beverage and agricultural producers
- Retail and wholesale trade
- Industrial customers
- Office paper retailers (ODP)
09 · where money goes
Cost structure
FY2025, share of revenue ($8.99B)
- Cost of revenue79.0%
- Selling, general & administrative7.1%
- Other operating costs1.7%
Operating profit left: 12.3% of revenue. Depreciation & amortization (inside the costs above): $653M. Capital spending: $829M.
Source: Form 10-K income statement and cash-flow statement (SEC XBRL).
05 · how money comes in
Revenue streams
- Corrugated products and containerboard sales
- Paper sales
Value propositions, channels and customer relationships: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Makes containerboard (linerboard and medium) in its own mills and converts most of it into corrugated boxes in nearby plants, selling regionally to many customers; also makes uncoated freesheet paper.
01 what it draws on
Inputs & resources
- About 16,800 employees (Dec 31, 2025)
- Ten mills and 91 corrugated products plants
- Wood fiber and recycled fiber
02 what it does
Activities
- Containerboard production
- Corrugated box manufacturing
- Uncoated freesheet paper production
03 who it serves
Customers
- Food, beverage and agricultural producers
- Retail and wholesale trade
- Industrial customers
- Office paper retailers (ODP)
04 how money comes in
How it earns
- Corrugated products and containerboard sales
- Paper sales
How the business makes money
- Third-largest North American containerboard producer.
- No single customer exceeds 10% of segment sales.
- Greif containerboard business acquired September 2025.
Government & regulation around the business
Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.
PKG faces stricter EPA particulate rules and trade-policy changes; an executive leads government affairs.
Environmental rules
Particulate standards
Stricter EPA particulate matter standards may make permits harder to obtain.
Constrains the businessTouches: ActivitiesSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Trade & export rules
Trade policy
Renegotiating or ending trade agreements could affect its business.
Constrains the businessTouches: CustomersSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Political engagement
Government affairs
A senior vice president leads tax, ESG and government affairs.
Supports the businessTouches: ActivitiesSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Revenue by segment (2025)
Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue
Packaging
8,293.9 (92%)Paper
615.4 (7%)Corporate and Other
80 (1%)
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Total revenue $8,989.3M. Income from operations: Packaging $1,125.3M, Paper $129.6M.
10
Contract structureSite analysisShow
Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.
11
Alliances & capital tiesSite analysisShow
Equity stakes, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships disclosed across the 10-K, 8-Ks, and proxy statement.
Pending or recent acquisition
Greif, Inc. (containerboard business)
Acquired September 2, 2025 for $1.8 billion in cash: two containerboard mills (~800,000 tons) and eight sheet feeder and corrugated plants.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)
12
Customers & suppliersSite analysis
Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.
Customers
Many regional and national customers; ODP in paper.
Named by the company
No single customer exceeds 10% of segment sales.
Suppliers
Wood fiber, recycled fiber, chemicals and energy.
Named by the company
No supplier is named.
13
Competitors & peersSite analysis
Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.
The 10-K says corrugated competition is mostly regional; nationally its primary competitors are International Paper, Smurfit WestRock, Georgia-Pacific and Pratt Industries.
Competitors named in the 10-K
Corrugated products (national)
- International Papersite ↗
- Smurfit Westrocksite ↗
- Georgia-Pacificsite ↗
- Pratt Industriessite ↗
Peer group the company chose
2025 compensation peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.
Packaging, basic materials and related-industry companies (2026 proxy).
- AptarGroupsite ↗
- Ashlandsite ↗
- Avery Dennisonsite ↗
- Ballsite ↗
- Celanesesite ↗
- Crown Holdingssite ↗
- Eastman Chemicalsite ↗
- Graphic Packagingsite ↗
- Greifsite ↗
- Ingredionsite ↗
- International Papersite ↗
- O-I Glasssite ↗
- PPGsite ↗
- Sealed Airsite ↗
- Sherwin-Williamssite ↗
- Sonocosite ↗
- Smurfit Westrocksite ↗
- Weyerhaeusersite ↗
Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.
14
Six years of financialsFrom SEC data
Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.
Revenue over time
Unit: $M
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-26
Profit over time (operating → net)
Unit: $M
- Operating income
- Pretax income
- Net income
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-26
Margins over time
Unit: %
- Operating margin
- Net margin
formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100
formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100
Cash flow over time
Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)
- Operating CF
- Investing CF
- Free CF
formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures
termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-26
Financial stability & capital efficiency
Unit: %
- Equity ratio
- ROE
formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets
formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity
Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share
Unit: $
- EPS
- Dividend per share
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-26
| Line item | FY202010-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement ($M) | ||||||
| Revenue | 6,658 | 7,730 | 8,478 | 7,802 | 8,383 | 8,989 |
| Operating income | 724 | 1,241 | 1,421 | 1,075 | 1,101 | 1,107 |
| Pretax income | 633 | 1,109 | 1,365 | 1,014 | 1,064 | 1,028 |
| Net income (attributable) | 461 | 841 | 1,030 | 765 | 805 | 774 |
| Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100 | — | 16.1% | 9.7% | -8.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% |
| Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 100 | 10.9% | 16.1% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 12.3% |
| Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100 | 6.9% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% |
| Balance sheet ($M) | ||||||
| Total assets | 7,433 | 7,837 | 8,004 | 8,681 | 8,833 | 10,726 |
| Total equity | 3,246 | 3,607 | 3,667 | 3,997 | 4,404 | 4,598 |
| Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable | 2,494 | 2,491 | 2,492 | 2,892 | 2,492 | 3,993 |
| Equity ratio | 43.7% | 46.0% | 45.8% | 46.0% | 49.9% | 42.9% |
| ROE | 14.2% | 24.5% | 28.3% | 20.0% | 19.2% | 17.2% |
| Cash flow ($M) | ||||||
| Operating CF | 1,033 | 1,094 | 1,495 | 1,315 | 1,191 | 1,558 |
| Investing CF | -426 | -794 | -834 | -875 | -278 | -2,573 |
| Financing CF | -312 | -656 | -960 | -112 | -876 | 859 |
| Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures | 612 | 489 | 671 | 845 | 522 | 729 |
| Cash and equivalents | 975 | 619 | 320 | 648 | 685 | 529 |
| Per share & other | ||||||
| EPS ($) | 4.84 | 8.83 | 11.03 | 8.48 | 8.93 | 8.58 |
| BVPS ($) | 34.24 | 38.58 | 40.88 | 44.61 | 49.04 | 51.55 |
| Dividend per share ($) | 3.37 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 100 | 69.6% | 45.3% | 43.1% | 59.0% | 56.0% | 58.3% |
| P/E (x) | 28.5 | 15.4 | 11.6 | 19.2 | 25.2 | 24.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization) | 12.9 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 13.5 | 12.4 |
| P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share | 4.03 | 3.53 | 3.13 | 3.65 | 4.59 | 4.00 |
P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.
Last 8 quarters
Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Operating income | Net income | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | $2.6B+12.5% | $385M+18.7% | $262M+15.6% | $2.93 |
| 2026-06-30 | $2.49B+14.7% | $291M-12.7% | $192M-20.5% | $2.15 |
| 2026-03-31 | $2.37B+10.6% | $251M-10.3% | $171M-16.1% | $1.91 |
| 2025-12-31 † | $2.36B+10.1% | $169M-44.2% | $102M-53.9% | — |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.31B | $325M | $227M | $2.51 |
| 2025-06-30 | $2.17B | $334M | $242M | $2.67 |
| 2025-03-31 | $2.14B | $280M | $204M | $2.26 |
| 2024-12-31 † | $2.15B | $302M | $221M | — |
† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.
15
Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data
ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.
ROIC (FY2025)
10.8%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
e.g.$1,107M × (1 − 24.5%) ÷ $7,743M × 100 = 10.8%
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
WACC (this site’s estimate)
7.90%
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
e.g.Equity weight: $18.4B ÷ ($18.4B + $3.99B) = 82.2%
e.g.Debt weight: $3.99B ÷ ($18.4B + $3.99B) = 17.8%
e.g.WACC: 8.8% × 82.2% + 5.0% × (1 − 24.5%) × 17.8% = 7.90%
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 6.6%–9.5% and ROIC − WACC runs +1.3 to +4.2 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.
WACC 7.90% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
- β
- 0.70 (price-derived adjusted beta)
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Cost of equity
- 8.80%
- Cost of debt
- 4.95% (no debt on record, using the risk-free rate)
- Tax rate
- 24.5% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
- Capital structure (equity : debt)
- 82% : 18%
ROIC over time, vs. WACC
Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red
- ROIC (above WACC)
- ROIC (below WACC)
- WACC 7.90%
formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)
termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity
formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight
termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization
Try different WACC assumptions
β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).
Initial β: 0.70 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.56, R² 0.12, 130 weeks)
formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)
e.g.0.67 × 0.556 + 0.33 = 0.702
termsβ (beta)
Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.
formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium
e.g.5.0% + 0.7 × 5.5% = 8.8%
termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)
formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)
formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)
16
What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data
A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.
Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)
5.1%
Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 7.9% − 2.8%
Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)
+3.6%
Compound annual rate, 5 years
Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)
+6.2%
Compound annual rate, 5 years
Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $729M (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $26.41B = market cap $23.02B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $3.99B − cash and short-term investments $601M; r = WACC of 7.9% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.70, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).
Three WACC scenarios
The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.
Try your own assumptions
V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.
Theoretical enterprise value
$26.02B
FCF $729M ÷ (7.9% − 5.1%)
Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value
0.99x
Below 1x: these assumptions value the business below the market did
How sensitive the answer is
Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.
| g \ r | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0.47x | 0.40x | 0.35x | 0.31x | 0.28x |
| 2% | 0.71x | 0.56x | 0.47x | 0.40x | 0.35x |
| 4% | 1.45x | 0.95x | 0.71x | 0.56x | 0.47x |
| 6% | — | 3.07x | 1.45x | 0.95x | 0.71x |
| 8% | — | — | — | 3.07x | 1.45x |
A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.
17
Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow
The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.
- ✓
Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.70x
Profit is backed by cash coming in.
- ✓
Accrual ratio (latest): -8.0%
A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.
- ✓
Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 108%
Most profit comes from core operations.
- ✓
Days sales outstanding: 46 → 49 days
No major slowdown in collecting on sales.
Operating CF vs. net income
Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash
- Operating CF
- Net income
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-26
Profit bridge (FY2025)
Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income
- Profit (each stage)
- Pushed profit up
- Pushed profit down
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-02-26
Receivables & inventory days
Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales
- Days sales outstanding
- Days inventory outstanding
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
Worked examples (latest period)
formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company
e.g.$1,558M ÷ $774M = 2.01x
termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)
formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100
e.g.$1,107M ÷ $1,028M × 100 = 108%
termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)
formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365
e.g.($1,144M + $1,256M) ÷ 2 ÷ $8,989M × 365 = 49 days
formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365
e.g.($1,125M + $1,243M) ÷ 2 ÷ $7,100M × 365 = 61 days
termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)
18
Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow
How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.
Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30
“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.
- Held by 13F filers
- 98.1%
- Directors & officers (shares)
- 1.6%
- Everyone else (est.)
- 0.3%
- Directors & officers (voting power)
- 1.6%
- Institutional-ownership rank
- 85 of 416
- Beta (adjusted)
- 0.70
individuals and other non-13F holders
no separate voting figure; shown as shares
1 = most institutional; 20% of covered companies have more
above 1 = swings more than the market
- 87.4M shares reported by 899 13F filers ÷ 89.1M shares outstanding on 2026-07-31. Option positions are excluded.
- Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
- A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.
Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-03-27 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-31)
19
Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis
Strengths
1. Integrated system
Mills mainly supply its own box plants, with a regional/local customer focus.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Market position
Third-largest containerboard producer in North America.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
3. Consistent profits
Net income positive every year 2020–2025.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Weaknesses
1. Higher debt
Debt rose to about $4.0B after the Greif purchase.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Earnings pressure
Q2 2026 net income $192M versus $242M despite higher revenue.
Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
3. Small, shrinking paper segment
Paper revenue slipped to $615M in 2025 from $625M in 2024.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
20
What draws investors to itSite analysis
Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
P/E (FY2025)
24.0x
Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS
Dividend yield (FY2025)
2.42%
Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price
Payout ratio (FY2025)
58%
Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS
FCF yield (FY2025)
4.0%
(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap
1. Dividend income
Dividends per share rose from $3.37 (2020) to $5.00 (2025) and $1.50 quarterly in 2026.
- What has to hold
- Steady box demand supports cash flow.
- The other side
- Earnings decline in 2026.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Capacity growth
Greif mills add about 800,000 tons.
- What has to hold
- Integration lowers costs.
- The other side
- Debt and execution.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Share counts are shares outstanding from the balance sheet (not tagged in XBRL).
21
ResilienceSite analysisShow
How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.
1. Financial buffer (FY2025)
Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year
—
$601M vs. —
Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)
Not disclosed
Interest expense isn’t reported as a separate line.
Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid
1.6x
$729M vs. $450M (FCF = operating CF − capex)
2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery
| Figure | Worst year-over-year change | Back to the prior level? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -8.0% in FY2023 ($8.48B → $7.8B) | Yes, by FY2025 |
| Operating income | -24.3% in FY2023 ($1.42B → $1.08B) | Not yet, as of FY2025 |
Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.
3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)
Profitable every year
Net income positive every year 2020–2025; low $461M in 2020.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)
22
Legal & regulatory mattersSite analysisShow
Lawsuits, government investigations, enforcement actions and settlements the company discloses — where each stands, what is at stake, and what comes next. From the 10-K's Legal Proceedings and contingencies note, the latest 10-Q, and 8-Ks.
PCA is a defendant in a 2025 containerboard antitrust class action, which it believes is without merit; other legal actions are ordinary course.
1 open matter (1 flagged as major)
Containerboard antitrust class action (Artuso Pastry Foods)
PendingAntitrustMajorArtuso Pastry Foods Corp v. Packaging Corporation of America, et al.
Filed July 29, 2025 in the Northern District of Illinois against PCA and seven other containerboard producers, alleging a conspiracy to raise containerboard prices and restrict capacity since November 1, 2020; seeks treble damages. PCA says the claims lack merit.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) — Note 20, Commitments, Guarantees, Indemnifications, and Legal Proceedings · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Legal Proceedings
Based on Form 10-K (FY2025) — Note 20, Commitments, Guarantees, Indemnifications, and Legal Proceedings, reviewed 2026-10-31. Routine ordinary-course claims are not listed. “Major” is this site’s judgment of which matters could materially affect results.
23
Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis
Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.
Risk map
Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).
Likelihood →
"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"
The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.
Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.
- 1Demand & macro
Box demand
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Corrugated demand follows consumer spending and industrial activity.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
- 2Raw materials & energy
Fiber and energy costs
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Fiber is the largest raw material cost; mills use large amounts of energy.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
- 3Competition & technology shift
Competition
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Competes with International Paper, Smurfit WestRock, Georgia-Pacific, Pratt and smaller producers.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
- 4Law & regulation
Antitrust class action
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Containerboard price-fixing suit seeks treble damages.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
- 5M&A & integration
Greif integration
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Integrating the acquired mills and plants.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
24
What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data
Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.
New or substantially reworded (3)
Acquisition Integration – The business may underperform relative to our expectations, and we may not be able to successfully integrate the business into our existing business. Read more
On September 2, 2025, we completed the acquisition of the containerboard business of Greif, Inc. The business may underperform relative to our expectations, which may cause our financial results to differ from our own or the investment community’s expectations. We are in the early stages of integrating the acquired business into our business, and are expending considerable time and resources on the integration. There may be substantial difficulties, costs and delays involved in this integration and the integration process could result in the diversion of our management’s attention from our existing business.
We are relying on the Seller to provide transition services to us for key functions of the acquired business, including accounting, information technology systems and support, purchasing and other services. Read more
We will be required to implement our own systems at the acquired business to perform these functions and exit the transition services agreement during the next year. We may experience delays or higher than expected costs in connection with these activities. We may face challenges in running the acquired business and achieving expected benefits from the acquisition if we experience difficulties in the implementation of our systems.
If the Greif containerboard business underperforms relative to our expectations, or if we fail to successfully integrate the business or experience difficulties in implementing our systems into the acquired business, it may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2025 ↗.
25
What to watch going forwardSite analysis
- Box shipments and pricing.
- Greif mill integration.
- Antitrust litigation.
- Debt reduction.
26
Source documentsShow
This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.
Other sources referenced in the analysis
Last updated
Analysis last edited: October 31, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 31, 2026 02:26 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: February 26, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-02-26Proxy statement (2026)
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Packaging Corporation of America’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.