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NYSE: NOC · Aerospace & Defense

Northrop Grumman

Northrop Grumman, based in Falls Church, Virginia, is a global aerospace and defense technology company that sells mainly to the U.S. Department of War and the intelligence community. Its four segments are Aeronautics Systems (military aircraft including the B-21 bomber, F-35 work, E-2 and TACAMO), Defense Systems (strategic deterrence such as Sentinel, tactical weapons, ammunition, IBCS), Mission Systems (radar, sensors and networking) and Space Systems. 2025 sales were $41,954 million, of which $35,183 million (84%) came from the U.S. government, and net earnings were $4,182 million ($29.08 per share). Results are hit from time to time by fixed-price losses on the B-21: a $1.56 billion loss across the five low-rate production options in 2023 and another $477 million in 2025. Backlog grew to $109.6 billion at September 30, 2026, and sales for the first nine months of 2026 were $31,879 million.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 30, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 14:36 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: January 27, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-01-2710-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-10-20Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

01

At a glanceFrom SEC data

Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.

Revenue growth
2.7%

Higher than 12% of 372 non-financial companies

Average yearly growth over the years shown

Operating margin
10.8%

Higher than 28% of 311 non-financial companies

Latest fiscal year (FY2025)

ROIC minus WACC
+4.9 pts

Higher than 56% of 311 non-financial companies

Return on capital above (or below) its estimated cost

Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.9x

Higher than 51% of 304 non-financial companies

Below 0 means more cash than debt

Cash conversion
1.14x

Higher than 17% of 349 non-financial companies

Operating cash flow ÷ net income

Dividend raises
5 of 5

Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5

P/E today
16.8x

Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

Beta
0.48

Above 1 = moves more than the market

Each marker shows where this company sits among the non-financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.

02

Valuation todayFrom SEC data

Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.

Share price$534.34close on 2026-11-04

Market cap$75.87B

P/E today
16.8x

At FY2025 year-end: 19.6x

Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30

P/B today
4.6x

At FY2025 year-end: 4.9x

Book value at FY2025 year-end

EV/EBITDA today
14.6x

At FY2025 year-end: 15.4x

EBITDA for FY2025

FCF yield today
4.4%

At FY2025 year-end: 4.1%

Free cash flow for FY2025

Dividend yield today
1.7%

Dividends per share for FY2025

“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

03

What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data

The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.

Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.

  • Revenue↑ +6.7%$10.42B → $11.12B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Operating margin↓ −0.5 pts11.9% → 11.4% (vs. a year earlier)
  • Net income↑ +2.2%$1.1B → $1.12B (vs. a year earlier)
  • Diluted EPS↑ +2.9%$7.67 → $7.89 (vs. a year earlier)
  • Cash↑ +62.3%$2.31B → $3.74B (vs. previous quarter-end)
  • Long-term debt→ +0.0%$15.19B → $15.2B (vs. previous quarter-end)

Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.

From the earnings release of Oct 20, 2026.

Management outlook ↑ Raised

Raised 2026 guidance for key financial metrics. Source sentence
Company raises 2026 guidance for key financial metrics:

Key changes

  • Q3 sales up $699M, or 7%. Source sentence
    Third quarter 2026 sales increased $699 million, or 7 percent, driven by higher sales at all four sectors, including a 14 percent increase at Aeronautics Systems and a 12 percent increase at Defense Systems.
  • Operating margin 11.4%. Source sentence
    Operating margin rate of 11.4 percent, Segment operating margin rate 1 of 12.1 percent

Written by AI. A line appears only if its figures and direction match the quoted sentence, which an automatic check confirms. Companies' outlooks are their own and may not be met. Read the release ↗

04

Company profileFrom SEC dataShow

Legal name
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/
Headquarters
FALLS CHURCH, VA
Fiscal year end
12/31
Exchange & ticker
NYSE: NOC
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
CIK
1133421

Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)

  • Employees

    95,000

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description

05

Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow

When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.

Next report

Q4 FY2026

Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 25–30 days after quarter end (Jan 27, 2026; Jan 30, 2025; Jan 25, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.

Reporting pattern

  • Fiscal year ends around December 31.
  • Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
  • Earnings releases came 20–30 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
QuarterQuarter endedEarnings release (8-K)Report filed (10-Q / 10-K)
Q3 FY2026Sep 30, 2026Oct 20, 2026 (+20 days)Oct 20, 2026 10-Q (+20 days)
Q2 FY2026Jun 30, 2026Jul 21, 2026 (+21 days)Jul 21, 2026 10-Q (+21 days)
Q1 FY2026Mar 31, 2026Apr 21, 2026 (+21 days)Apr 21, 2026 10-Q (+21 days)
Q4 FY2025Dec 31, 2025Jan 27, 2026 (+27 days)Jan 27, 2026 10-K (+27 days)
Q3 FY2025Sep 30, 2025Oct 21, 2025 (+21 days)Oct 21, 2025 10-Q (+21 days)
Q2 FY2025Jun 30, 2025Jul 22, 2025 (+22 days)Jul 22, 2025 10-Q (+22 days)
Q1 FY2025Mar 31, 2025Apr 22, 2025 (+22 days)Apr 22, 2025 10-Q (+22 days)
Q4 FY2024Dec 31, 2024Jan 30, 2025 (+30 days)Jan 30, 2025 10-K (+30 days)
Q3 FY2024Sep 30, 2024Oct 24, 2024 (+24 days)Oct 24, 2024 10-Q (+24 days)
Q2 FY2024Jun 30, 2024Jul 25, 2024 (+25 days)Jul 25, 2024 10-Q (+25 days)
Q1 FY2024Mar 31, 2024Apr 25, 2024 (+25 days)Apr 25, 2024 10-Q (+25 days)
Q4 FY2023Dec 31, 2023Jan 25, 2024 (+25 days)Jan 25, 2024 10-K (+25 days)

Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.

06

Flagship products & servicesSite analysis

  • Aeronautics Systems

    Military aircraft

    B-21, E-2, TACAMO, F-35 fuselage work and autonomous systems.

  • Defense Systems

    Strategic deterrence and weapons

    Sentinel ICBM, tactical missiles, ammunition and IBCS.

  • Mission Systems

    Sensors and networks

    Radars, electronic warfare, communications and C4ISR.

  • Space Systems

    Space

    Satellites, space-based sensors, launch and missile defense systems.

From the Form 10-K, FY2025.

U.S. and worldwide share of flagship products/services

Northrop calls itself “a leading global aerospace and defense technology company” but gives no market-share figures.

Reviewed: Form 10-K (FY2025) · Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

07

Recent strategic focusSite analysis

Recent developments.

  1. Backlog

    Backlog $109.6B at September 30, 2026 (+15% from year-end); year-to-date net awards $46.2B.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

  2. DOJ inquiry

    On May 20, 2026 DOJ confirmed the Criminal Division closed its inquiry; the CID and DCMA inquiry continue.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

  3. Nine months 2026

    Sales $31,879M versus $30,242M; net earnings $3,093M versus $2,755M.

    Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)

0.99x

Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

e.g.$1,450M ÷ $1,472M = 0.99x

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

R&D-to-revenue ratio (FY2025)

2.6%

formularesearch & development expense ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$1,100M ÷ $41,954M × 100 = 2.6%

termsResearch & development (R&D) · Revenue (net sales)

Where the money goes, over time

Unit: $M. Capex went from $1.42B in FY2020 to $1.45B in FY2025

  • Capex
  • R&D

formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization

termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-01-27

08

Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data

FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.

Revenue (FY2025)

$41.95B

As reported in the 10-K

Revenue CAGR (5 years)

+2.7%

formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1

e.g.($41,954M ÷ $36,799M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 2.7%

termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)

Operating margin (FY2025)

10.8%

-0.3pt vs. 5 years ago

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

e.g.$4,511M ÷ $41,954M × 100 = 10.8%

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

ROE (FY2025)

26.2%▲favorable

6-year average: 32.0%

As reported in the 10-K

P/B (FY2025 end)

4.86x

formulafiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share

e.g.$570.21 ÷ $117.42 = 4.86x

termsP/B · BVPS

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's P/B

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 end)

15.4x

formula(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)

e.g.($80,968M + $15,696M − $4,403M) ÷ ($4,511M + $1,472M) = 15.4x

termsEV/EBITDA · Market capitalization · Interest-bearing debt · EBITDA · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)

Period-end (fiscal year-end) value, not today's multiple

  • ―

    Revenue grew +2.7% a year over 5 years (modest growth)

    From $36.8B in FY2020 to $41.95B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.

  • ―

    Operating margin held roughly flat: 11.0% → 10.8%

    How much operating profit is left per $100 of revenue. It moved -0.3 points over 5 years — pricing power, cost control, and product mix all show up here.

  • ―

    Equity ratio is 32.5% (a middling level)

    The share of total assets funded by equity rather than debt. 50%+ is often read as low bankruptcy risk, though the right level varies by industry (real estate and leasing run lower, for instance).

  • ▲

    Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years

    Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.

  • ▲

    ROE averaged 32.0% over 6 years (latest: 26.2%)

    How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.

09

Business modelSite analysis

Designs, develops, produces and sustains aircraft, weapons, space, mission systems and strategic deterrent systems under long-term government contracts (cost-type and fixed-price), mostly for the U.S. government.

How money and goods flow at Northrop Grumman
  1. 01 what it draws on

    Inputs & resources

    • About 95,000 employees (about 7,500 hired in 2025)
    • Engineering and production facilities
    • Security clearances and classified program access
  2. 02 what it does

    Activities

    • Aeronautics Systems: military aircraft design, production and sustainment
    • Defense Systems: strategic deterrence, weapons and ammunition
    • Mission Systems: radar, sensors, C4ISR and networking
    • Space Systems: satellites, launch and space systems
  3. 03 who it serves

    Customers

    • U.S. government (84% of 2025 sales)
    • International customers (14%)
  4. 04 how money comes in

    How it earns

    • Mission Systems $12,506M (2025, incl. intersegment)
    • Aeronautics Systems $12,992M
    • Space Systems $10,771M
    • Defense Systems $8,002M

How the business makes money

  • 2025 net awards $46.3B; backlog $95.7B at year-end.
  • Shareholder returns of $2.9B in 2025.
  • No country other than the U.S. exceeds 10% of sales.

Government & regulation around the business

Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.

Northrop Grumman is almost entirely a U.S. government contractor.

  • Government as customer

    U.S. government as main customer

    Sales to the U.S. government were 84% of 2025 sales (87% in 2024).

    Supports and constrainsTouches: Customers · How it earns

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  • Government funding & tax credits

    Subsidized competitors

    Some competitors receive government loans, subsidies or preferential treatment not available to Northrop.

    Constrains the businessTouches: Customers

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Revenue by segment (FY2025)

Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue

  • Aeronautics Systems

    12,992 (29%)
  • Mission Systems

    12,506 (28%)
  • Space Systems

    10,771 (24%)
  • Defense Systems

    8,002 (18%)

Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Segment sales for 2025 including intersegment sales; consolidated total $41,954M.

10

Contract structureSite analysisShow

Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.

11

Customers & suppliersSite analysis

Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.

Customers

U.S. government ($35,183M, 84% of 2025 sales) and international customers ($5,990M).

Named by the company

The U.S. government is the largest customer; no other country exceeds 10% of sales.

Suppliers

Subcontractors and suppliers on its programs.

Named by the company

No single supplier is named as material.

12

Competitors & peersSite analysis

Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.

Northrop competes in defense, intelligence and federal civil markets with large primes and, increasingly, new entrants and startups.

Competitors named in the 10-K

Peer group the company chose

Target industry peer group, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.

2025 peer group from the 2026 proxy statement (Boeing, General Dynamics, Honeywell, L3Harris, Lockheed Martin and RTX are the direct-peer subset).

Source: Proxy statement (2026)

Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.

13

Six years of financialsFrom SEC data

Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.

Revenue over time

Unit: $M

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-01-27

Profit over time (operating → net)

Unit: $M

  • Operating income
  • Pretax income
  • Net income

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-01-27

Margins over time

Unit: %

  • Operating margin
  • Net margin

formulaoperating income ÷ revenue × 100

termsOperating income · Revenue (net sales)

formulanet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company)

Cash flow over time

Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)

  • Operating CF
  • Investing CF
  • Free CF

formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures

termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-01-27

Financial stability & capital efficiency

Unit: %

  • Equity ratio
  • ROE

formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets

formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity

Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share

Unit: $

  • EPS
  • Dividend per share

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-01-27

Line itemFY202010-K on EDGAR ↗FY202110-K on EDGAR ↗FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗
Income statement ($M)
Revenue36,79935,66736,60239,29041,03341,954
Operating income4,0655,6513,6012,5374,3704,511
Pretax income3,7288,9385,8362,3465,0165,068
Net income (attributable)3,1897,0054,8962,0564,1744,182
Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100—-3.1%2.6%7.3%4.4%2.2%
Operating margincalcoperating income ÷ revenue × 10011.0%15.8%9.8%6.5%10.6%10.8%
Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 1008.7%19.6%13.4%5.2%10.2%10.0%
Balance sheet ($M)
Total assets44,46942,57943,75546,54449,35951,377
Total equity10,57912,92615,31214,79515,29016,674
Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable15,00312,78312,87713,85616,27415,696
Equity ratio23.8%30.4%35.0%31.8%31.0%32.5%
ROE30.1%59.6%34.7%13.7%27.7%26.2%
Cash flow ($M)
Operating CF4,3053,5672,9013,8754,3884,757
Investing CF-1,2112,058-1,241-1,582-1,749-1,155
Financing CF-432-7,002-2,613-1,761-1,395-3,552
Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures2,8852,1521,4662,1002,6213,307
Cash and equivalents4,9073,5302,5773,1094,3534,403
Per share & other
EPS ($)19.0343.5431.4713.5328.3429.08
BVPS ($)63.4582.7199.9898.56105.48117.42
Dividend per share ($)5.676.166.767.348.058.99
Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 10029.8%14.1%21.5%54.2%28.4%30.9%
P/E (x)16.08.917.334.616.619.6
EV/EBITDA (x)calc(market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash and equivalents) ÷ (operating income + depreciation & amortization)11.410.119.020.913.915.4
P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share4.804.685.464.754.454.86

P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.

Last 8 quarters

Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.

Quarter endedRevenueOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
2026-09-30$11.12B+6.7%$1.27B+2.2%$1.12B+2.2%$7.89
2026-06-30$10.88B+5.1%$1.1B-23.1%$1.09B-6.8%$7.68
2026-03-31$9.88B+4.4%$989M+72.6%$875M+81.9%$6.14
2025-12-31 †$11.71B+9.6%$1.27B+16.7%$1.43B+12.9%—
2025-09-30$10.42B$1.24B$1.1B$7.67
2025-06-30$10.35B$1.43B$1.17B$8.15
2025-03-31$9.47B$573M$481M$3.32
2024-12-31 †$10.69B$1.09B$1.26B—

† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.

14

Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data

ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.

ROIC (FY2025)

11.9%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

e.g.$4,511M × (1 − 16%) ÷ $31,967M × 100 = 11.9%

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

WACC (this site’s estimate)

6.94%

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

e.g.Equity weight: $80.97B ÷ ($80.97B + $15.7B) = 83.8%

e.g.Debt weight: $15.7B ÷ ($80.97B + $15.7B) = 16.2%

e.g.WACC: 7.6% × 83.8% + 4.2% × (1 − 16%) × 16.2% = 6.94%

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

ROIC − WACC

+4.9pt▲favorable

Earning more than the cost of capital (ROIC > WACC in 6 of 6 years)

formulaROIC − WACC (positive means the business earns more than its cost of capital)

termsROIC · WACC

How firm is this? With the equity risk premium ±1 point and beta ±0.2, WACC runs 5.8%–8.4% and ROIC − WACC runs +3.4 to +6.1 points. The sign holds across this range. This describes the latest year and does not predict future value creation.

WACC 6.94% is this site’s estimate under the assumptions below (not a figure the company has published)

Risk-free rate
4.95% (10-year Treasury, 2026-11-03)
β
0.48 (price-derived adjusted beta, but correlation with the market is low (R² 0.01), so reliability is limited)
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Cost of equity
7.59%
Cost of debt
4.24%
Tax rate
16% (effective rate, FY2023–FY2025)
Capital structure (equity : debt)
84% : 16%
→ Change assumptions and recalculate

ROIC over time, vs. WACC

Unit: % — bars = each period's ROIC, horizontal line = latest WACC. Bars above the line are green, below are red

  • ROIC (above WACC)
  • ROIC (below WACC)
  • WACC 6.94%

formulaoperating income × (1 − tax rate) ÷ invested capital × 100 *invested capital = interest-bearing debt + total equity (average of beginning/ending)

termsOperating income · Effective tax rate · Invested capital · Interest-bearing debt · Total equity

formulacost of equity × equity weight + cost of debt × (1 − tax rate) × debt weight

termsCost of equity · Equity weight (E/(D+E)) · Cost of debt · (1 − tax rate) · Debt weight (D/(D+E)) · Market capitalization

Try different WACC assumptions

β and the equity risk premium are estimates with a real range of plausible values — move the sliders to check whether ROIC > WACC still holds. The risk-free rate starts at the 10-year Treasury yield on 2026-11-03 (U.S. Treasury).

Initial β: 0.48 (price-derived adjusted beta. Raw β 0.22, R² 0.01, 130 weeks)

formula0.67 × β + 0.33 (β = the slope of weekly stock returns regressed on weekly market returns)

e.g.0.67 × 0.219 + 0.33 = 0.477

termsβ (beta)

Period 2024-05-10–2026-11-04, using S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy. Source: Yahoo Finance price history.

Cost of equity7.59%

formularisk-free rate + β × equity risk premium

e.g.5.0% + 0.48 × 5.5% = 7.6%

termsCAPM · Risk-free rate · β (beta) · Equity risk premium (market risk premium)

Market value of equity$80.97B

formulafiscal year-end closing price × shares outstanding (= market cap)

termsMarket capitalization · Market value of equity

Interest-bearing debt$15.7B
Cost of debt4.24%

formulainterest expense ÷ interest-bearing debt × 100 (clamped to 0–10%; falls back to the risk-free rate if there’s no debt)

termsInterest-bearing debt · Risk-free rate

Capital structure (equity weight : debt weight)84% : 16%

15

What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data

A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.

Growth the price implies (price on 2026-11-04)

3.1%

Perpetual FCF growth: g = r − FCF ÷ EV = 6.9% − 3.8%

Past FCF growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+2.8%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Past revenue growth (FY2020–FY2025)

+2.7%

Compound annual rate, 5 years

Inputs (FY2025): free cash flow $3.31B (operating CF − capex); enterprise value $87.17B = market cap $75.87B (latest close, 2026-11-04) + debt $15.7B − cash and short-term investments $4.4B; r = WACC of 6.9% using this page’s default assumptions (β 0.48, risk-free 5.0%, market premium 5.5%).

Three WACC scenarios

The same calculation under cautious, base and optimistic cost-of-capital assumptions (risk-free rate fixed at the 10-year Treasury yield). Pick one to load it into the sliders below.

Try your own assumptions

V = FCF ÷ (r − g). It starts at the implied growth rate, where the theoretical value equals today’s enterprise value.

Theoretical enterprise value

$87.03B

FCF $3.31B ÷ (6.9% − 3.1%)

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value

1.00x

Below 1x: these assumptions value the business below the market did

How sensitive the answer is

Theoretical ÷ actual enterprise value for each combination of r and g.

g \ r4.9%5.9%6.9%7.9%8.9%
0%0.77x0.64x0.55x0.48x0.43x
2%1.31x0.97x0.77x0.64x0.55x
4%4.22x2.00x1.31x0.97x0.77x
6%——4.22x2.00x1.31x
8%————4.22x

A simplified model for seeing what the market price assumes, not a forecast or a target price. It treats free cash flow as growing at one constant rate forever; the result swings widely with small changes in r and g, and is undefined when g reaches r. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow minus capex, which is after interest — a full DCF of enterprise value would use cash flow before interest. Market cap uses the latest close (2026-11-04) × shares at fiscal year-end; free cash flow and WACC inputs are from the latest fiscal year.

16

Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow

The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.

  • ✓

    Operating CF ÷ net income: averages 1.09x

    Profit is backed by cash coming in.

  • ✓

    Accrual ratio (latest): -1.1%

    A small share of profit rests on accounting estimates.

  • ✓

    Core-earnings share (operating income ÷ pretax income): 89%

    Most profit comes from core operations.

  • ✓

    Days sales outstanding: 15 → 12 days

    No major slowdown in collecting on sales.

Operating CF vs. net income

Unit: $M — operating CF above net income means profit is backed by cash

  • Operating CF
  • Net income

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formula(net income − operating CF) ÷ average total assets × 100

termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Total assets

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-01-27

Profit bridge (FY2025)

Unit: $M — what moved profit from operating income to net income

  • Profit (each stage)
  • Pushed profit up
  • Pushed profit down

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-01-27

Receivables & inventory days

Unit: days — days grow when receivables or inventory build up faster than sales

  • Days sales outstanding

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

Worked examples (latest period)

formulacash flow from operations ÷ net income attributable to the company

e.g.$4,757M ÷ $4,182M = 1.14x

termsCash flow from operations (operating CF) · Net income (attributable to the company)

formulaoperating income ÷ income before income taxes × 100

e.g.$4,511M ÷ $5,068M × 100 = 89%

termsOperating income · Income before income taxes (pretax income)

formulaaverage receivables (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ revenue × 365

e.g.($1,272M + $1,375M) ÷ 2 ÷ $41,954M × 365 = 12 days

termsAccounts receivable · Revenue (net sales)

formulaaverage inventory (opening + closing ÷ 2) ÷ cost of revenue × 365

termsInventory · Cost of revenue (COGS)

17

Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow

How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.

Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30

“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.

Held by 13F filers
83.5%
Directors & officers (shares)
<1%
Everyone else (est.)
16.5%

individuals and other non-13F holders

Directors & officers (voting power)
<1%

no separate voting figure; shown as shares

Institutional-ownership rank
279 of 416

1 = most institutional; 67% of covered companies have more

Beta (adjusted)
0.48

above 1 = swings more than the market

  • 118.6M shares reported by 1,811 13F filers ÷ 142.1M shares outstanding on 2026-07-16. Option positions are excluded.
  • Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table (percentage computed from the group’s share count ÷ shares outstanding); includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
  • A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.

Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-04-03 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-16)

18

Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis

Strengths

  1. 1. Large backlog

    Backlog rose from $91.5B (2024) to $95.7B (2025) and $109.6B at September 30, 2026.

    Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

  2. 2. Strategic programs

    Works on B-21 (Aeronautics Systems) and Sentinel (Defense Systems) strategic programs.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Shareholder returns

    Dividend per share raised every year from $5.67 (2020) to $8.99 (2025).

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  4. 4. Government customer base

    U.S. government sales were 84% of 2025 sales.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Weaknesses

  1. 1. Fixed-price program losses

    B-21 LRIP loss of $1.56B in 2023 and $477M more in 2025; $1.3B loss accrual remained at end-2025.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  2. 2. Customer concentration

    84% of 2025 sales came from the U.S. government.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

  3. 3. Thin margins

    2025 operating margin rate of 10.8%.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

19

What draws investors to itSite analysis

Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

P/E (FY2025)

19.6x

Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS

Dividend yield (FY2025)

1.58%

Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price

Payout ratio (FY2025)

31%

Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS

FCF yield (FY2025)

4.1%

(Operating CF − capex) ÷ market cap

  1. 1. Defense spending tailwind

    Strategic deterrence, space and munitions demand.

    What has to hold
    U.S. budgets keep rising.
    The other side
    Fixed-price program risk.

    Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

  2. 2. Capital returns

    Steady dividend increases and buybacks ($3.0B new authorization December 2024).

    What has to hold
    Cash flow grows.
    The other side
    Pension and program cash needs.

    Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)

Per-share figures are diluted EPS.

20

ResilienceSite analysisShow

How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.

1. Financial buffer (FY2025)

Cash & short-term investments ÷ debt due within a year

8.2x

$4.4B vs. $534M

Interest coverage (operating income ÷ interest expense)

6.8x

$4.51B vs. $665M

Free cash flow ÷ dividends paid

2.6x

$3.31B vs. $1.29B (FCF = operating CF − capex)

2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery

FigureWorst year-over-year changeBack to the prior level?
Revenue-3.1% in FY2021 ($36.8B → $35.67B)Yes, by FY2023
Operating income-36.3% in FY2022 ($5.65B → $3.6B)Not yet, as of FY2025

Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.

3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)

  • Profitable every year

    Net earnings stayed between $2.1B and $7.0B every year 2020–2025.

    Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)

22

Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis

Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.

Risk map

Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).

Impact
High
12
Med
345
Low
LowMedHigh

Likelihood →

"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"

The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.

Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.

  1. 1Customer/supplier concentration

    U.S. budget dependence

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Sales depend on U.S. defense appropriations and program priorities.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  2. 2Costs & inflation

    Fixed-price development

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Cost overruns on fixed-price contracts such as B-21 LRIP lead to loss provisions.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact High / Likelihood Med
  3. 3Law & regulation

    Government investigations

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    DOJ civil investigative demand and DCMA inquiry over CAS pension interest rate assumptions.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  4. 4Law & regulation

    Bethpage environmental

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Personal injury and property damage suits over legacy Bethpage conditions; reasonably possible remediation costs $403M above accruals.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med
  5. 5Labor & workforce

    Cleared workforce

    Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
    Need to hire and retain skilled, security-cleared employees.
    Company’s stated mitigation
    Not stated in the filings.
    This site’s assessment
    Impact Med / Likelihood Med

23

What changed in the risk factorsFrom SEC data

Paragraphs in the latest 10-K's Risk Factors that have little overlap with the year before, and paragraphs that were dropped.

New or substantially reworded (6)

  • The U.S. government can also introduce new contract terms that could impact and/or restrict our capital deployment strategy under certain circumstances related to contractor underperformance, noncompliance, insufficient prioritization of a particular contract, insufficient investment or insufficient production speed. If our contracts with the U.S. government include such terms and we are determined to have triggered any of the foregoing circumstances, we may be prohibited from engaging in share repurchases or dividends for a period of time.

  • Our customers are increasingly working with commercial contractors as well as newer entrants and startups in the defense industry for some products and services. Read more

    Such contractors may have lower cost, more agile operating structures and access to capital and talent, a greater ability to leverage changes in the customer’s acquisition

  • Additionally, in some instances, companies both inside and outside the U.S. Read more

    may receive loans, investments, subsidies, preferential treatment and other assistance from their governments or customers that may not be provided or available to other companies. Such assistance may increase the competitiveness of such companies in certain opportunities. Certain foreign companies may also be subject to fewer restrictions on technology transfer.

  • operations can enhance our performance and enable our workforce to meet the needs of the customer. Read more

    Our business may be adversely affected if we cannot continue to successfully integrate artificial intelligence into our business processes, products and services in a cost-effective, efficient, compliant and responsible manner. In addition, the advancement and integration of artificial intelligence technologies into our business are transforming the nature of work and the skills required within our workforce and may lead to workforce displacement. This could require us to invest in additional employee training, manage impacts on morale and retention and compete for candidates who possess more advanced technological skills. If we are unsuccessful in managing such risks to our workforce, it could negatively impact our operations. Additionally, emerging and potential regulations governing the…

  • This Annual Report on Form 10-K and the information we are incorporating by reference contain statements that constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Read more

    Words such as “will,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “may,” “could,” “should,” “plan,” “project,” “forecast,” “believe,” “estimate,” “guidance,” “outlook,” “trends,” “goals” and similar expressions generally identify these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements relating to our future financial condition, results of operations and/or cash flows. Forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions, expectations, plans and projections that we believe to be reasonable when made, but which may change over time. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and inherently involve a wide range of…

  • You are urged to consider the limitations on, and risks associated with, forward-looking statements and not unduly rely on the accuracy of forward-looking statements. Read more

    These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date this report is first filed or, in the case of any document incorporated by reference, the date of that document. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.

No longer in the text (4)

  • Future funding for certain programs in which we participate may be reduced, delayed or cancelled. Read more

    Budget cuts globally could adversely affect the viability of our subcontractors and suppliers. While we believe that our business is well-positioned in areas for future defense spending, changing priorities, budget pressures, defense spending cuts, challenges in the appropriations process, the possibility of a long-term continuing resolution (or series of continuing resolutions) and breach of the debt ceiling, ongoing fiscal debates and the global economic and security environment increase uncertainties and risk.

  • incentive-based fee arrangements; fixed price development or long-term production programs; Read more

    different award criteria; and non-traditional contract provisions have affected and may in the future affect our profitability and predictability.

  • led to legislative and regulatory efforts to combat both potential causes and adverse impacts of climate change, including regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. Read more

    New or more stringent laws and regulations related to greenhouse gas emissions and other climate change related concerns have affected and will likely continue to affect us, our suppliers and our customers. The company has set a goal to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions in our operations by 2035 and is committed to working to achieve its climate change and other sustainability goals. We are working to identify opportunities to utilize alternatives to fossil-based energy sources, to decrease our greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce our consumption of water and generation of waste, and to ensure our compliance with environmental regulations where we operate, enhancing our record of environmental sustainability. However,…

  • We and our suppliers are also facing increased legal requirements globally. Read more

    We may be held responsible not only for our compliance, but that of our suppliers. Our procurement practices are intended to reduce the risk we procure counterfeit, unauthorized or otherwise non-compliant parts or materials. We rely on our suppliers also to comply with applicable laws, customer requirements and contract terms, to ensure the quality of their components and effectively to mitigate the risk of cyber and security threats or other disruptions to their performance.

Matched automatically, quoted as filed, and may include rewording of an existing risk. Compares Item 1A of the 10-K filed Jan 27, 2026 ↗ with the 10-K filed Jan 30, 2025 ↗.

24

What to watch going forwardSite analysis

  • B-21 production and loss accrual.
  • Sentinel program progress.
  • Backlog conversion.
  • DOJ CID and DCMA inquiry.

25

Source documentsShow

This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.

Last updated

Analysis last edited: October 30, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 30, 2026 14:36 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: January 27, 2026

Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-01-27Proxy statement (2026)

Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.

This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Northrop Grumman’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.