NYSE: PGR · Property & Casualty Insurance
Progressive Corporation
Progressive, based in Mayfield Village, Ohio, is a property and casualty insurance holding company whose subsidiaries write personal and commercial auto insurance, personal residential property insurance and insurance for motorcycles, boats and RVs, sold through independent agents and directly online and by phone. It ranked second in U.S. private passenger auto insurance market share (2024 premiums written) and has been number one in U.S. commercial auto since 2015. Net premiums written reached $83.2 billion in 2025 (Personal Lines $72.6 billion, Commercial Lines $10.6 billion). After a weak 2022 (net income $722 million) as loss costs rose, rate increases and growth lifted net income to $11,308 million in 2025 on revenue of $87,671 million. Progressive pays a small quarterly dividend plus a large annual variable dividend ($13.50 declared for 2025). It faces class actions in several states over how it values total-loss vehicles.
Last updated
Analysis last edited: October 31, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 31, 2026 02:22 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: March 2, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-03-0210-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30) · filed 2026-11-02Proxy statement (2026)
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
01
At a glanceFrom SEC data
Eight headline measures, each placed among the companies covered on this site.
- Revenue growthCAGRSmooths out year-to-year swings into "grew X% a year on average." Makes growth pace comparable across companies of very different sizes.
- 15.5%
- Net marginOperating marginHow many cents of operating profit are left per dollar of revenue. Reflects pricing power and cost structure.
- 12.9%
- Return on equityROIC − WACC spreadThe difference between ROIC and WACC. Consistently positive implies value creation; consistently negative implies value destruction.
- 40.4%
- Equity ratioEBITDAOperating income with D&A added back. A rough proxy for cash-generating power that’s less distorted by capital intensity, depreciation method, or financing/tax differences than net income.
- 24.6%
- Cash conversionOperating CF ÷ net income (cash conversion)How much of reported profit shows up as actual cash. 1x or higher means profit is backed by cash.
- 1.55x
- Dividend raisesDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year).
- 3 of 5
- P/E todayP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing.
- 11.7x
- Betaβ (beta)How much a stock moves, on average, for a 1% move in the overall market. Above 1 means more volatile than the market, which raises the return shareholders require. This site computes it from about 2.5 years (roughly 130 weeks) of weekly returns, built from Yahoo Finance daily prices, regressed against an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as the market proxy, then applies the well-known long-run mean-reversion adjustment (0.67 × β + 0.33) as the WACC default.
- 0.63
Higher than 82% of 44 financial companies
Average yearly growth over the years shown
Higher than 29% of 45 financial companies
Latest fiscal year (FY2025)
Higher than 93% of 45 financial companies
Latest fiscal year (FY2025)
Higher than 73% of 45 financial companies
Equity ÷ total assets
Higher than 61% of 44 financial companies
Operating cash flow ÷ net income
Years the dividend per share rose, of the last 5
Latest close 2026-11-04; trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
Above 1 = moves more than the market
Each marker shows where this company sits among the financial companies covered on this site, not all listed companies (left = lowest, right = highest). A high position is not automatically good — for net debt ÷ EBITDA, higher means more debt. Details and formulas are in the sections below and in How to read this.
02
Valuation todayFrom SEC data
Price-based measures at the latest close, next to the same measures at the last fiscal year-end.
Share price$231.27close on 2026-11-04
Market cap$135.52B
- P/EP/EShare price ÷ EPS — how many years of current earnings the stock price represents. This site uses the period-end figure as reported in the filing. today
- 11.7x
- P/BP/BShare price ÷ book value per share. Below 1x means the market values the company below its accounting net worth. This site uses the closing price nearest the fiscal year-end and highlights sub-1x readings. today
- 4.5x
- EV/EBITDAEV/EBITDAEnterprise value (≈ market cap + interest-bearing debt − cash) as a multiple of EBITDA — roughly, "how many years of EBITDA to buy the whole company." Lower is generally viewed as cheaper, and it’s more comparable than P/E across companies with different debt loads or depreciation policies. This site excludes noncontrolling interests from the EV calculation. today
- —
- FCF yieldFree cash flow (FCF)Operating CF minus capital expenditures — cash generated by the business after funding its own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. Acquisitions and securities purchases (also in investing CF) are not subtracted, so FCF can be positive in a year when total investing CF exceeds operating CF. today
- —
- Dividend yieldDividend per shareTotal annual dividend paid per share (sum of all declared payments for the year). today
- 6.0%
At FY2025 year-end: 11.8x
Earnings: trailing 12 months to 2026-09-30
At FY2025 year-end: 4.4x
Book value at FY2025 year-end
At FY2025 year-end: —
EBITDA for FY2025
At FY2025 year-end: 12.9%
Free cash flow for FY2025
Dividends per share for FY2025
“Today” uses the latest closing price (2026-11-04, Yahoo Finance daily closing prices) and shares outstanding at the last fiscal year-end. The rest of this page — including the financial table and ROIC vs. WACC — uses fiscal year-end prices. These are reference figures, not a judgment of whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
03
What changed since last earningsFrom SEC data
The latest reported quarter against the same quarter a year earlier, the balance sheet against the previous quarter-end, and what management said in its latest earnings release.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026.
- Revenue$22.51B → $23.19B (vs. a year earlier)↑ +3.0%$22.51B → $23.19B (vs. a year earlier)
- Net income$2.62B → $2.54B (vs. a year earlier)↓ −2.8%$2.62B → $2.54B (vs. a year earlier)
- Diluted EPS$4.45 → $4.37 (vs. a year earlier)↓ −1.8%$4.45 → $4.37 (vs. a year earlier)
- Cash$193M → $156M (vs. previous quarter-end)↓ −19.2%$193M → $156M (vs. previous quarter-end)
Source: Form 10-Q ↗ (SEC XBRL). Long-term debt is the tagged long-term debt figure and leaves out short-term borrowings.
04
Company profileFrom SEC dataShow
- Legal name
- PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
- Headquarters
- MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OH
- Incorporated in
- Ohio
- Fiscal year end
- 12/31
- Exchange & ticker
- NYSE: PGR
- Industry
- Property & Casualty Insurance
- CIK
- 80661
Workforce (as of FY2025 year-end)
Employees
70,000
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) cover page and business description
05
Earnings calendarFrom SEC dataShow
When the company reports each quarter: the quarter-end date, the day results were released, and when the 10-Q or 10-K was filed.
Next report
Q4 FY2026
Quarter end: December 2026. In past years, Q4 results were released 24–29 days after quarter end (Jan 28, 2026; Jan 29, 2025; Jan 24, 2024). No date has been announced in the sources this site uses.
Reporting pattern
- Fiscal year ends around December 31.
- Reports four times a year: three quarterly reports (10-Q) and an annual report (10-K) for Q4.
- Earnings releases came 12–29 days after quarter end over the last 12 quarters.
| Quarter | Quarter ended | Earnings release (8-K) | Report filed (10-Q / 10-K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | Oct 14, 2026 (+14 days) | Nov 2, 2026 10-Q (+33 days) |
| Q2 FY2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Jul 15, 2026 (+15 days) | Aug 3, 2026 10-Q (+34 days) |
| Q1 FY2026 | Mar 31, 2026 | Apr 15, 2026 (+15 days) | May 4, 2026 10-Q (+34 days) |
| Q4 FY2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | Jan 28, 2026 (+28 days) | Mar 2, 2026 10-K (+61 days) |
| Q3 FY2025 | Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 15, 2025 (+15 days) | Nov 3, 2025 10-Q (+34 days) |
| Q2 FY2025 | Jun 30, 2025 | Jul 16, 2025 (+16 days) | Aug 4, 2025 10-Q (+35 days) |
| Q1 FY2025 | Mar 31, 2025 | Apr 16, 2025 (+16 days) | May 5, 2025 10-Q (+35 days) |
| Q4 FY2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Jan 29, 2025 (+29 days) | Mar 3, 2025 10-K (+62 days) |
| Q3 FY2024 | Sep 30, 2024 | Oct 15, 2024 (+15 days) | Nov 4, 2024 10-Q (+35 days) |
| Q2 FY2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Jul 16, 2024 (+16 days) | Aug 5, 2024 10-Q (+36 days) |
| Q1 FY2024 | Mar 31, 2024 | Apr 12, 2024 (+12 days) | May 6, 2024 10-Q (+36 days) |
| Q4 FY2023 | Dec 31, 2023 | Jan 24, 2024 (+24 days) | Feb 26, 2024 10-K (+57 days) |
Source: SEC EDGAR filing history. Release dates are the dates the earnings release was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K (Item 2.02), which is normally the day results are announced. For a quarter whose 10-Q or 10-K isn’t filed yet, the date is the latest Item 2.02 8-K since the previous report, which may be a preliminary or other results-related update. Fiscal years are labeled by the calendar year in which they end.
06
Flagship products & servicesSite analysis
Personal Lines
Personal auto
Private passenger auto insurance sold by agents and directly; 95% of personal vehicle premiums.
Personal Lines
Special lines
Motorcycle, boat, RV and other recreational vehicle insurance (market share leader in motorcycle and boat).
Commercial Lines
Commercial auto
Auto insurance for small businesses, trucking and fleets.
Property
Personal property
Homeowners and renters insurance, often bundled with auto.
From the Form 10-K, FY2025.
U.S., worldwide and country/regional share of flagship products/services
Only shares the company itself states (in its filings or press releases, sometimes citing a research firm) are shown. Scope and timing vary by figure — treat these as approximate.
Private passenger auto insurance
U.S.
U.S. share
#2
Company-disclosedBy 2024 premiums written; believes it kept the position in 2025
Worldwide share
—
Not disclosedCommercial auto insurance
U.S.
U.S. share
#1
Company-disclosedRanked number one since 2015
Worldwide share
—
Not disclosedHomeowners insurance
U.S.
U.S. share
12th largest
Company-disclosedBy 2024 premiums written
Worldwide share
—
Not disclosed
07
Recent strategic focusSite analysis
Recent developments.
Second quarter 2026
Total revenues $23,609M versus $22,004M; net income $3,311M versus $3,175M; companywide underwriting margin 12.7%.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
First half 2026
Net income $6,129M versus $5,742M.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
Dividends
2025 dividends declared $13.90 per share, including a $13.50 annual variable dividend.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Capex ÷ D&A (FY2025)
1.11x
Roughly matches depreciation — mostly maintenance/replacement
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
e.g.$348M ÷ $313M = 1.11x
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
M&A spend (6-year total)
$313M
Latest year: $0
Cash-flow-statement spending on acquisitions, net of cash acquired
Where the money goes, over time
Unit: $M. Capex went from $224M in FY2020 to $348M in FY2025
- Capex
- M&A spend
formulacapital expenditures ÷ depreciation & amortization
termsCapital expenditures (capex) · Depreciation & amortization (D&A)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-03-02
08
Key figures at a glanceFrom SEC data
FY2020–FY2025, 6 years.
Total revenue (FY2025)
$87.67B
As reported in the 10-K
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
+15.5%▲favorable
formula(last-period revenue ÷ first-period revenue) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1
e.g.($87,671M ÷ $42,658M) ^ (1÷5) − 1 = 15.5%
termsCAGR · ^ (exponent) · Revenue (net sales)
ROE (FY2025)
40.4%▲favorable
6-year average: 26.0%
As reported in the 10-K
- ▲
Revenue grew +15.5% a year over 5 years (strong growth)
From $42.66B in FY2020 to $87.67B in FY2025. The annualized rate (CAGR) makes it possible to compare growth pace across companies of different sizes.
- ▲
Free cash flow was positive in 6 of 6 years
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures: the cash left over after funding the business’s own investment, available for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, or debt paydown. A negative year can mean heavy investment, or weak core earnings — worth distinguishing.
- ▲
ROE averaged 26.0% over 6 years (latest: 40.4%)
How much profit was generated on shareholders’ equity. Roughly 10%+ is often cited as solid for a U.S. company, though this varies a lot by industry and capital intensity.
09
Business modelSite analysis
Business Model Canvas
The whole company in nine blocks. Left side: how it delivers (partners, activities, resources, costs). Right side: who it serves and how it earns. Every entry comes from the company’s filings shown on this page.
08 · who helps
Key partners
No partners or suppliers named in the filings.
07 · what it does
Key activities
- Underwriting personal and commercial auto
- Personal property (homeowners) insurance
- Claims handling
- Investing premiums
06 · what it draws on
Key resources
- About 70,000 employees (Dec 31, 2025)
- Pricing data and telematics (Snapshot)
- Investment portfolio and statutory surplus
02 · why customers buy
Value propositions
- Auto and property insurance priced to target at least a 4% underwriting profit.
04 · how it keeps them
Customer relationships
- Policy renewals; Snapshot usage-based insurance.
03 · how it reaches them
Channels
- Independent agents, and directly online, by phone and through its app.
01 · who it serves
Customer segments
- Individual drivers and homeowners
- Small businesses and fleets (commercial auto)
09 · where money goes
Cost structure
FY2025, share of revenue ($87.67B)
- Interest expense0.3%
- Operating expenses (as reported)83.8%
Depreciation & amortization (inside the costs above): $313M. Capital spending: $348M.
Source: Form 10-K income statement and cash-flow statement (SEC XBRL).
05 · how money comes in
Revenue streams
- Net premiums earned
- Net investment income
- Fees and other revenues
Value propositions, channels and customer relationships: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Collects premiums for auto and property policies, aims for a calendar-year underwriting profit of at least 4%, and invests the float; growth comes from competitive pricing driven by data and advertising.
01 what it draws on
Inputs & resources
- About 70,000 employees (Dec 31, 2025)
- Pricing data and telematics (Snapshot)
- Investment portfolio and statutory surplus
02 what it does
Activities
- Underwriting personal and commercial auto
- Personal property (homeowners) insurance
- Claims handling
- Investing premiums
03 who it serves
Customers
- Individual drivers and homeowners
- Small businesses and fleets (commercial auto)
04 how money comes in
How it earns
- Net premiums earned
- Net investment income
- Fees and other revenues
How the business makes money
- Goal: at least 4% calendar-year underwriting profit.
- #2 U.S. private passenger auto and #1 commercial auto.
- Annual variable dividend.
Government & regulation around the business
Non-market factors from the company’s filings: what governments and regulators fund, buy, set, approve or restrict, and which part of the flow above each one touches.
Progressive is supervised by insurance departments in every state.
Approvals & licenses
State insurance regulation
Insurance subsidiaries are regulated by state insurance departments in all 50 states, D.C., Bermuda and Canada.
Constrains the businessTouches: Activities · How it earnsSource: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Revenue by segment (2025)
Unit: $M — bar length = revenue, (%) = share of total company revenue
Personal Lines
70,778 (87%)Commercial Lines
10,881 (13%)Other indemnity
2 (0%)
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025) Premium revenue by segment (total $81,661M); total revenues $87,671M including investment income. Net premiums written: Personal Lines $72,558M, Commercial Lines $10,613M.
10
Contract structureSite analysisShow
Short-term or spot sales carry different earnings quality than long-term or auto-renewing contracts — this shows how the company actually contracts with its customers.
11
Customers & suppliersSite analysis
Who the company sells to and buys from. Companies rarely name either, so named counterparties come only from the company's own filings and press releases; otherwise this lists the concentration figures the 10-K discloses.
Customers
Drivers, homeowners and businesses.
Named by the company
No single customer is material.
Suppliers
Independent agents, repair shops and reinsurers.
Named by the company
No supplier is named.
12
Competitors & peersSite analysis
Competitors the 10-K names, and the peer group the company itself chose in its proxy statement. Nothing here is this site's own pick.
The 10-K says Progressive competes with specialty companies and large multi-line carriers: about 64 large commercial auto groups and about 360 homeowners insurers, without naming them.
Competitors named in the 10-K
Peer group the company chose
2025 compensation comparison companies, from the proxy statement. Peers are companies the board considers comparable — for example when setting executive pay — not necessarily direct competitors.
Large insurance and financial companies with comparable revenue (2026 proxy).
- Elevance Healthsite ↗
- Centenesite ↗
- Humanasite ↗
- Bank of Americasite ↗
- Wells Fargosite ↗
- Citigroupsite ↗
- MetLifesite ↗
- Prudential Financialsite ↗
- American Expresssite ↗
- Allstatesite ↗
- Chubbsite ↗
- Travelerssite ↗
- Molina Healthcaresite ↗
- Capital Onesite ↗
- American International Group (AIG)site ↗
Company names link to this site’s analysis where one exists; “site ↗” opens the company’s own website.
13
Six years of financialsFrom SEC data
Each chart's axis holds a single unit (never mixing dollars, %, and $/share). The table's per-period header links to the filing the numbers came from.
Total revenue over time
Unit: $M
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-03-02
Profit over time (operating → net)
Unit: $M
- Pretax income
- Net income
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-03-02
Cash flow over time
Unit: $M (below zero = cash went out)
- Operating CF
- Investing CF
- Free CF
formulacash flow from operations − capital expenditures
termsFree cash flow (FCF) · Cash flow from operations (operating CF) · Capital expenditures (capex)
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-03-02
Financial stability & capital efficiency
Unit: %
- Equity ratio
- ROE
formulatotal equity ÷ total assets × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsStockholders’ equity · Total assets
formulanet income ÷ average equity (beginning + ending, ÷2) × 100 (as reported in the 10-K)
termsNet income (attributable to the company) · Stockholders’ equity
Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share
Unit: $
- EPS
- Dividend per share
Source: each period's Form 10-K (SEC EDGAR). Latest: filed 2026-03-02
| Line item | FY2020In next year’s 10-K | FY2021In next year’s 10-K | FY202210-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202310-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202410-K on EDGAR ↗ | FY202510-K on EDGAR ↗ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement ($M) | ||||||
| Revenue | 42,658 | 47,702 | 49,611 | 62,109 | 75,372 | 87,671 |
| Pretax income | 7,173 | 4,210 | 922 | 4,904 | 10,713 | 14,223 |
| Net income (attributable) | 5,705 | 3,351 | 722 | 3,903 | 8,480 | 11,308 |
| Revenue growthcalc(this year’s revenue − last year’s revenue) ÷ last year’s revenue × 100 | — | 11.8% | 4.0% | 25.2% | 21.4% | 16.3% |
| Net margincalcnet income attributable to the company ÷ revenue × 100 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% |
| Balance sheet ($M) | ||||||
| Total assets | 64,098 | 71,132 | 75,465 | 88,691 | 105,745 | 123,039 |
| Total equity | 17,039 | 18,232 | 15,891 | 20,277 | 25,591 | 30,323 |
| Interest-bearing debtSum of short- and long-term borrowings, notes/bonds payable | 5,396 | 4,899 | 6,388 | 6,889 | 6,893 | 6,897 |
| Equity ratio | 26.6% | 25.6% | 21.1% | 22.9% | 24.2% | 24.6% |
| ROE | 33.5% | 19.0% | 4.2% | 21.6% | 37.0% | 40.4% |
| Cash flow ($M) | ||||||
| Operating CF | 6,906 | 7,762 | 6,849 | 10,643 | 15,119 | 17,548 |
| Investing CF | -6,118 | -3,120 | -7,956 | -10,842 | -13,749 | -14,527 |
| Financing CF | -939 | -4,516 | 1,126 | 78 | -1,316 | -3,037 |
| Free cash flowcalccash flow from operations − capital expenditures | 6,682 | 7,518 | 6,557 | 10,391 | 14,834 | 17,200 |
| Cash and equivalents | 77 | 202 | 221 | 100 | 154 | 138 |
| Per share & other | ||||||
| EPS ($) | 9.66 | 5.66 | 1.18 | 6.58 | 14.40 | 19.23 |
| BVPS ($) | 29.12 | 31.20 | 27.17 | 34.66 | 43.67 | 51.75 |
| Dividend per share ($) | 4.90 | 1.90 | 0.40 | 1.15 | 4.90 | 13.90 |
| Payout ratiocalcdividend per share ÷ diluted EPS × 100 | 50.7% | 33.6% | 33.9% | 17.5% | 34.0% | 72.3% |
| P/E (x) | 10.2 | 18.1 | 109.9 | 24.2 | 16.6 | 11.8 |
| P/B (x)calcfiscal year-end closing price ÷ book value per share | 3.40 | 3.29 | 4.77 | 4.60 | 5.49 | 4.40 |
P/B and EV/EBITDA use each period’s period-end (fiscal year-end) figures, not the current share price. Figures without a "calc" tag are as reported in the Form 10-K (the consolidated financial statements and, for older years, earlier 10-Ks), pulled automatically from SEC EDGAR. Where a later filing restated a prior period, the restated figure is used.
Last 8 quarters
Three-month figures from 10-Q filings. Change is versus the same quarter a year earlier. Newest quarter on top.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Net income | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | $23.19B+3.0% | $2.54B-2.8% | $4.37 |
| 2026-06-30 | $23.61B+7.3% | $3.31B+4.3% | $5.67 |
| 2026-03-31 | $22.19B+8.7% | $2.82B+9.8% | $4.80 |
| 2025-12-31 † | $22.75B+12.2% | $2.95B+25.3% | — |
| 2025-09-30 | $22.51B | $2.62B | $4.45 |
| 2025-06-30 | $22B | $3.18B | $5.40 |
| 2025-03-31 | $20.41B | $2.57B | $4.37 |
| 2024-12-31 † | $20.28B | $2.36B | — |
† Fourth quarter = the 10-K’s annual figure minus the first three quarters; quarterly EPS isn’t derived this way because share counts change during the year.
14
Measures that fit this businessFrom SEC data
ROIC and free cash flow don’t suit an insurer, so these are the usual yardsticks instead.
- Combined ratio goal
- 96 or below
Long-standing company-wide goal, calendar-year basis
As stated by the company: Form 10-K (FY2025)
| Measure | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equityNet income ÷ stockholders’ equity. | 33.5% | 19.0% | 4.2% | 21.6% | 37.0% | 40.4% |
| Premiums earned growthChange from the prior year. | — | — | — | 19.1% | 20.7% | 15.3% |
| Claims and benefits ÷ premiums earnedNot a combined ratio: underwriting expenses are excluded, and life insurers’ benefits run higher by design. | — | — | 77.4% | 77.8% | 69.3% | 66.1% |
| Equity ÷ total assetsThe accounting cushion. Regulatory capital ratios are listed separately above when the filing states them. | 26.6% | 25.6% | 21.1% | 22.9% | 24.2% | 24.6% |
Computed from SEC XBRL figures. A dash means the company doesn’t tag that figure or the result fell outside a plausible range. Tagging differs between filers, so check the filing before comparing two companies closely.
15
Is ROIC above WACC?From SEC data
ROIC (the return on money invested in the business) above WACC (the cost of raising that money) means the company is creating value. WACC is an estimate, so its assumptions can be adjusted below.
Banks, insurers, and similar financial companies aren’t compared this way, since deposits/policies are the business itself and debt can’t be cleanly separated from operating capital.
16
What the price implies (DCF)From SEC data
A company's value can be written as its free cash flow divided by (cost of capital − perpetual growth). Working that backwards from the market's valuation shows how much growth the share price assumed — compared here with the company's actual past growth.
Not applied to banks, insurers, and similar financial companies: their operating cash flow includes deposits or premiums held for customers, so it isn’t free cash flow available to investors.
17
Earnings qualityFrom SEC dataShow
The same reported profit can mean different things depending on whether it's backed by cash, driven by the core business, or the result of a one-off item. Four checks below.
Financial companies’ operating cash flow behaves differently from an operating company’s, so this analysis doesn’t apply.
18
Who holds the sharesFrom SEC dataShow
How much of the stock large institutional investors report owning on SEC Form 13F, how much the directors and executive officers hold (and how much of the vote they control), and roughly how much is left for individual investors. Shown next to beta so the holder mix can be read alongside how much the stock swings.
Institutions, insiders and everyone else, 13F holdings as of 2026-06-30
“Everyone else” is what remains after shares reported on Form 13F and shares held by directors and executive officers: mostly individual investors, plus non-insider families or foundations and smaller or foreign institutions. The figures have different dates and 13F reports count some shares twice — read it as an approximate split.
- Held by 13F filers
- 87.5%
- Directors & officers (shares)
- <1%
- Everyone else (est.)
- 12.5%
- Directors & officers (voting power)
- <1%
- Institutional-ownership rank
- 230 of 416
- Beta (adjusted)
- 0.63
individuals and other non-13F holders
no separate voting figure; shown as shares
1 = most institutional; 55% of covered companies have more
above 1 = swings more than the market
- 509.0M shares reported by 1,819 13F filers ÷ 581.4M shares outstanding on 2026-07-02. Option positions are excluded.
- Directors and executive officers as a group, from the proxy statement’s beneficial-ownership table; includes shares they can acquire within 60 days.
- A large “everyone else” share can still reflect a family, trust or foundation stake held outside the board; check the proxy statement’s 5% holders.
Sources: SEC Form 13F data set (holdings as of 2026-06-30) · Form DEF 14A filed 2026-03-23 (beneficial ownership table) · Form 10-Q cover page (shares outstanding as of 2026-07-02)
19
Strengths & weaknessesSite analysis
Strengths
1. Market leadership
#2 in U.S. private passenger auto and #1 in commercial auto since 2015.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Strong profitability
Net income rose from $722M (2022) to $11,308M (2025).
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
3. Fast growth
Revenue grew from $42,658M (2020) to $87,671M (2025).
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Weaknesses
1. Volatile results
Net income fell to $722M in 2022 as loss costs rose.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
2. Litigation exposure
Class actions over total-loss vehicle valuation in multiple states.
Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
3. Catastrophe exposure
Property business is exposed to storms and weather.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
20
What draws investors to itSite analysis
Why the stock can look attractive to investors — each point paired with what has to hold for it to stay true, and the opposing view. This is this site's analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
P/E (FY2025)
11.8x
Price at fiscal year-end ÷ diluted EPS
Dividend yield (FY2025)
6.10%
Dividends per share ÷ fiscal year-end price
Payout ratio (FY2025)
72%
Dividends per share ÷ diluted EPS
1. Growth with profit
Revenue doubled 2020–2025; Q2 2026 underwriting margin 12.7% versus the 4% companywide goal.
- What has to hold
- Pricing discipline continues.
- The other side
- Loss cost spikes, as in 2022.
Evidence: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30)
2. Variable dividend
Large annual dividend in profitable years.
- What has to hold
- High profits return as dividends.
- The other side
- Dividend varies with results.
Evidence: Form 10-K (FY2025)
Insurance financials: ROIC/WACC and FCF yield are not meaningful. Dividends per share are declared amounts including the annual variable dividend (paid in January of the following year).
21
ResilienceSite analysisShow
How well the company could absorb a bad year: its financial buffer, how its revenue and profit held up in the worst year on record, and what the 10-K says about the business's exposure to shocks. Figures and filing statements only — no overall rating.
1. Financial buffer (FY2025)
For an insurer or bank, debt-coverage ratios like these don’t describe its ability to absorb losses — that depends on its capital, reserves, and investment portfolio, which are covered in part 3 below.
2. Worst year in the record, and the recovery
| Figure | Worst year-over-year change | Back to the prior level? |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | No decline in the record | — |
| Net income | -78.5% in FY2022 ($3.35B → $722M) | Yes, by FY2023 |
Covers only the 6 fiscal years on record (FY2020–FY2025), which may not include a full recession — the worst year here isn’t necessarily how the company would fare in a severe downturn.
3. Business resilience (from the 10-K)
Profitable every year
Net income positive every year 2020–2025; low $722M in 2022.
Source: Form 10-K (FY2025)
22
Legal & regulatory mattersSite analysisShow
Lawsuits, government investigations, enforcement actions and settlements the company discloses — where each stands, what is at stake, and what comes next. From the 10-K's Legal Proceedings and contingencies note, the latest 10-Q, and 8-Ks.
Progressive faces class actions in multiple states alleging improper valuation of total-loss vehicle claims; it is contesting them.
1 open matter (1 flagged as major)
Total-loss vehicle valuation class actions
PendingClass actionMajorInsureds v. Progressive
Class actions in multiple states allege Progressive improperly values total-loss vehicle claims through a negotiation adjustment; classes have been certified in three states. An unfavorable result in many cases could be material in aggregate.
Source: Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Litigation
Based on Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-06-30) — Note on Litigation, reviewed 2026-10-31. Routine ordinary-course claims are not listed. “Major” is this site’s judgment of which matters could materially affect results.
23
Risks (including geopolitical)Site analysis
Starting from the 10-K's Risk Factors section, organized by category — geopolitical, currency, raw materials, regulatory, disaster, and more — with impact and likelihood assessed by this site.
Risk map
Vertical = impact on results, horizontal = likelihood. Upper right = most severe. Numbers match the list below (placement is this site’s own assessment).
Likelihood →
"Company disclosure" vs. "this site’s assessment"
The description and mitigation for each risk are this site’s summary of the 10-K’s "Risk Factors" section. Impact and likelihood are this site’s own assessment, not the company’s — where the company discloses its own likelihood assessment, that is noted in the summary.
Impact is judged from how large the affected business is relative to total revenue/profit, and from the risk’s track record of moving results in the past. Likelihood is judged from the filing’s wording and the current business environment (already occurring, or recurring). See the rating criteria.
- 1Competition & technology shift
Auto insurance competition
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Competes with specialty and large multi-line carriers.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
- 2Costs & inflation
Loss cost inflation
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Used car prices, repair and medical costs and jury verdicts affect severity.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact High / Likelihood High
- 3Disaster
Catastrophes
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Storms and other catastrophes hit property and auto results.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood High
- 4Law & regulation
Rate regulation and litigation
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- State rate approvals and class action suits.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
- 5FX & interest rates
Investment markets
- Company disclosure (summarized from the 10-K)
- Investment portfolio value moves with rates and markets.
- Company’s stated mitigation
- Not stated in the filings.
- This site’s assessment
- Impact Med / Likelihood Med
24
What to watch going forwardSite analysis
- Underwriting profit margin versus the 4% target.
- Policy growth and advertising spend.
- Total-loss valuation class actions.
- Annual variable dividend.
25
Source documentsShow
This page's financial figures come from the Form 10-Ks listed below. Check the original filings for full detail.
Other sources referenced in the analysis
Last updated
Analysis last edited: October 31, 2026 · Financial data fetched: October 31, 2026 02:22 (SEC EDGAR) · Source 10-K filed: March 2, 2026
Built on10-K FY2025 · filed 2026-03-02Proxy statement (2026)
Next update expectedAfter FY2026’s 10-K is filed (roughly 60–90 days after fiscal year end (sooner for larger filers)), financials and analysis will be refreshed.
This page is this site’s own analysis based on public information, and does not represent Progressive Corporation’s views. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and this site does not guarantee the accuracy of any figure or statement here. Always verify against the original source documents before making an investment decision.